Raw Transcript
Welcome to my weekly review. You're looking at a weekly chart of the NASDAQ, which fell 280 points last week or one and a quarter%. You can see it's pulled back to its 40week line for the first time since the tariff tantrum back last April. There you can see 22,204 is your 40week line. It undercut it slightly at 22124. Um, but you know, actually one and a quarter% is not bad as you're going to see here in a little bit. I guess I'll go to the daily chart and just, you know, fill in the um the blanks here. Down at 3.5% below its 50-day, 1.9% below its 21. You could see, you know, since it's undercut the 50 a couple times, it rallied back through, but this time it can't. So, I'm not saying it's going to go the other way, but it as long as it can't get through the 50. The probabilities of it going lower are are are greater. So, we're dealing in odds and probabilities here. It just doesn't look good for the NASDAQ or the SPY. I don't want to go through all this stuff. Just on the week, it was down 2%. uh the uh Dow Jones Industrial Average got hit a little harder down 3% still above its 40we line and then the Russell uh down 4% which would be expected but the you know if you lost money last week like I did um don't feel like you're special. There was a, you know, a global selloff after the war started last Friday night or two Friday nights ago, whatever. The South Korean, this exchange traded fund, it was down 16%, the actual index was down about 11 12 or 12%. And Japan, the Nikkay was down, you know, 6.5%, this exchange traded phone was down 8%. uh Germany the DAX was down uh almost 7% and this exchange traded fund was down nearly 8% the um EWQ which is the uh the France the Karon um was down nearly uh 7% this index was down excuse me this exchange traded fund was down nearly 8% EWI which is Italy yeah same thing, you know, down a lot. So, don't feel like you're special because everybody else was down too. Even Mexico was down and um you know, I'm not going to go through all this. Brazil, same thing. Um so, there's a global sell-off. If you lost money, don't feel special. Uh join the crowd. Um hopefully things will get better. This is um I'm going to go through some earnings reports from last week and then some leading groups and then a credto reported last week had a negative reaction got a little bit of boost from the Broadcom uh comments from the Broadcom CEO but sold off eventually and for the week you know down 2% not bad considering right uh Target reported and had a nice response here breaking out of the stage one base at three weeks tight last week tacked on 6%. So, uh, good for Target, uh, shareholders. Thank you very much, Viking. This is the old boomer trade, right? You got to figure that leisure cruises, you know, through Europe probably not going to do that well with this conflict going on, down 12% after reporting earnings last week. VS&T is a media group and they reported is up 10%. So, this recent IPO looking strong. Yeah, looks good. Ross Stores reported Ross is a boss. They had a nice response last week, up nearly 3%. Uh, Sydney Sweeney did not fare so well. American Eagle just got wall up 25%. They lost 25% of their market cap on a pretty decent earnings report, which I don't really get that, but you're not going to argue with the market. Yeah, they saw increasing sales growth, increasing margins. I know they talked about margins going forward, in increasing earnings growth, and then the stock gets hammered like that. So, that's just the way it goes. Like I say, you can't uh fight the market here. I will say for them they have a 3.1 billion market cap and they're doing about I don't know over six billion sales. So this is trading less than onetime sales. So not an expensive stock but the market doesn't like it. Wix had a great week, right? It was up 33% after reporting earnings. The software software stocks were um getting a little nibble last week. Um, Sienna, Sienna, this is just a victim of, you know, their own success here. They've, um, you broke out here and then ran up, formed this ascending base, ran up again. So, this thing's up a lot in the last year. Yeah. 326%. So, you know, buy the rumor, sell the news, you know, good earnings report. It's just And also, the backdrop of the market was not very good at all. uh Marll uh nice um response to their reports. Got this double bottom base pattern, but I just don't trust the market right now. Um yeah, not at all. Had a good week though. You know, it was up nearly 10%. All right, that's it for the earnings, but I got to get to what's cooking. You know, everything revolves around oil right now. And uh I think West Texas went up to 90 bucks on Friday. It shot up from 60 to 90 in a blink. And that's not good for the rest of the um stocks, folks, for your growth stocks, your momentum names, they're going to get sold, multiples are going to come in. This is inflationary big time because there's petroleum and like everything, right? Everything pretty much your paints, your plastics. I mean, yeah, your gasoline at the pump is going higher and there's, you know, a lot of people uh it's going to hurt them uh the higher gas prices. So, I'm watching the price of oil. It can certainly come in. You know, this is a news-driven market and if we get some good news, this is going to come down and our growth stocks can, you know, excel once again. But as long as this thing's ripping like this, all bets are off. You have no edge. I went to cash on on Friday because there's just no over the weekend, who knows? this thing could open up at 120 bucks on on um Monday and so you know it could also go down but you know there like I said there's no edge either way you're just it's a coin flip on how oil performs and right now it's just way too hot um so there are some names in the oil group CNQ is one a Canadian um exploration you can see how this thing's just been romping I mean these these things have just been ripping. Looks like SanDisk and Micron, right? Or Lummentum. Um, yeah. Anyway, up 6% last week. So, I'm just going to go through a bunch of these. I'm not endorsing them. I'm just showing you, you know, these are strong names in the oil and gas field services. This is um Kodiak broke out of a base here that had that three weeks tight now, you know, ripping higher. Uh, LBRT is another one in the group. Yeah, just it was down 4 and a.5% last week, but it has been on a roll. Same with Tidewater. Tidewater broke out of this Beijan up and then pulled back the last three days. I don't know if it was Yeah. down 2% last week for the field services names. Uh the international exploration group um accidental I don't think people are laughing at Warren Buffett buying this company up big time recently. Uh it was up 2% last week. Broke out of that stage four decline I should say out of the stage one base and now in an ascending ascending pattern. OVV another international exploration name just yeah up 3%. You can see it broke out of this cup with handle just ripping higher. Uh APA um yeah I'm not buying these but I'm just showing you up uh nearly 8% last week. Take a look at the daily. Yeah. So, um, nothing to do there but count your money while you're sitting at the table. Um, there'll be time enough for counting when the dealing's done. I would say, you know, cash out. Once again, if like you you own these and you're relying on oil going higher, oil could crash down too and these things will get sold off as well. That's why I'm not buying any oil stocks. It's way too late. 9% for Woodside last week. Not not bad. Uh, the refiners, VLOO, strong name. This thing's just going ballistic. Up 10% last week. PSX, another Buffett stock. Yeah, you know, 7.5% last week. Um, and I'm not going through these. Yeah, because I don't really care. It's just they're they're benefiting from higher oil prices. U Marathon Petroleum up, you know, 12% last week. You going to buy that here? Yeah, go ahead. I'm not going to. There is a chart that I do like. I like Dino a little bit that ran up, had a little head fake, undercut the 50, rallied back up. Um, yeah, not bad there. And then um, so another refiner. So the refiners are are fine. Yeah, just yeah, cup with handle running higher. Um, out of the refiners, we can go to the integrated EQNR. So these are the top groups, folks. I'm just, you know, taking them from here. you know, these top groups. I will get the the memory and the fiber optics. But it's all oil and gas. So, if you're not interested in oil and gas, this section of the show is not for you. Um, EQNR up 13% last week. Thank you very much. That's um I would say that's out of character for these stocks. Shell up one and a half%. I have some friends who work at Shell, so congrats to you guys. Your retirement kitty's looking better. Um, who else we have? Oh, of course, Exxon and Chevron, the big kahunas. Yeah, Exxon flat last week. Had it's been on a big run. Chevron up nearly 2% last week, broke out, and it's just uh trading higher with the price of oil. I mean, hello. There's It's not complicated at all. But like I say, if oil comes down, these ones are going to get hammered. Um, so yeah, it's a coin flip. I have no idea what oil is going to do next week. Um, Cineus Energy, CVE. Yeah, this is a Canadian company. Yeah, up nearly 2%. At $22. Look at this on the daily. Yeah, just a breakout and surfing the moving averages like Kelly Slater. You got to love it. LNG, if you own it, LNG, this now we're going to the pipeline stock, the transportation pipeline. This one just broke out last week. Flex LNG up 11% breaking out of that flat base pattern. You can see the earnings line going south. Doesn't matter. It's the price of oil. Yeah, earnings is not an part of the criteria here. EPD, another one. Yeah, nice week. 4%. We'll take that. STNG, Sting, the transportation uh pipeline names. Yeah, this one's been moving. Oh, it fell back 2% last week. Almost 3%. Yeah, breakout and just pulling back. Maybe it'll come back to the 21 here. Um, what else we have in this group? Oh, DTM. Yeah, this one's been on a roll. Just surfing breakout. Surfing the five. Very nice. Okay, enough of that. Let me see. I got the US exploration. Not the international, but the US EOG. Look at this one, man. Yeah. uh 6% move last week, breaking out of that um you know, stage four decline, that stage one base. Not bad. I mean, I'm just like I said, I'm just going through the strong strong groups here. Um Fang is another one. Not the It's the Diamondback energy breaking out of this base here now ripping up nearly 4% last week. Um what else we have? OSM another exploration stock. I want to look at this one on the daily. You could see this one forming this uh cup here in that stage one trying to get break out of this stage one base here. Yeah, that that doesn't look too bad either. That one in Dino. Not bad. Um who else we have? RC exploration name. And this is another one that's kind of close to a buy point. I'm not going to buy it. But, you know, if I was going to buy an oil and gas stock, I'd rather buy those than the ones that are just way extended. That's just me. Um, and then CHRD uh cord. Yeah, I was up 12% last week breaking out of this um stage one base. Not bad, but um little extended for this kid. Anyway, um we're going to move on. I think that's enough oil and gas for us, right? I mean, I've had enough of this stuff. Um, you can't control the market, right? You can just control your reactions to the market. And last week, the market told us that um, you know, the computer data storage names were not uh, not in vogue here. It pulled back to its 50. The group did. This is the group here. And, uh, pulled back nearly um 6%, you know. So, um, wait a minute here. That was on the day. on the week it was down 12 and a half percent as it did pull back to its um it says 10 week line there. Yeah. So I'm not saying it's going to bounce there. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But you got to look at the leaders in the group. SanDisk pulled back to its 10 week line just like the um the group itself. It was down 17% last week. You can see it sliced its 21. Could form a double bottom base here. You know, I'm not going to count the SanDisk out. This is acting a lot like um super micro in 2023. Broke out, made that high of 284. It pulled back to its 50, formed a base, and then you know what happened from what 183 to 725. And everybody's calling for a top. Is it a top? I don't think so. I think it's going to a,000 bucks. But, uh, it's going to come down before it goes up. How about that? And I know a lot of people throwing dirt on the grave here, but I would be very careful doing that. I think it still has life. Micron, this one I took off my leading stock just because it it closed below its 50. Didn't want to do it. Had to do it. Rules are rules. You got to do it. Um, yeah, it's 1.4% below its 50. you know, it could easily, you know, fade here for another week before, you know, rallying right back through and making a new high above 455, which I think it will do uh in not too distant future. Um, all right. I guess I'll go to WDC. Yeah, same same thing. Pull back to the 50 here and then STX is fairing a little worse, closing below the 50. So, all right. And then the other group was the um you know it was just on Monday where Nvidia announced a $2 billion deal with um Lummentum and Coherent and uh you know they ripped up this one ripped up nearly 12% that was Monday and the rest of the week it was Adios Machos on Friday after the close it was announced that they're going into the S&P 500 index on March 23rd I believe and um or something like Um anyway, in a couple of weeks it was up uh nearly 2% on that news last night. Sienna I already reported, you know, they had an earnings report and it was not good. Sell the sell the news. A AOI, this is interesting. This one ripped up then pulled back to its five. I was telling my members to watch this one and it ran up from it ran up like 15 bucks on Friday. Um, yeah, the close Thursday was 101 and on Friday was like 114, but then we'll see what happened. You know, this is what happens if you don't take profits, right? You lose them. Whoop! The market just took it right from you. Sell off into the close. So, it went from 114 to 95 um in a in a pretty short period of time. I mean, yeah. Uh, so anyway, that's the type of market that we have. very dangerous uh market and VIA, another one in this uh fiber optic group. Yeah, slices 21 there down 10% on Friday. Just just a real rough tape. Cor, another one that had the deal with um um Nvidia on Monday, which seemed like a long time ago. It was 299 on Monday, closed at 235. That's just the type of market we have. Yeah. going into the S&P 500, right, with um Lumin invertive. Uh, right. Yeah. Okay. The market doesn't care. Uh, all right. I think that's it for those guys. All right. I'm just going to move on. Fertilizer. I've never made money in the market when fertilizer and oil and gas were the leaders. So, I'm just this this type of stuff spooks me besides the the you know, private credit concerns and there's a lot of negative stuff that just spook me to the sidelines. You know, I shouldn't say spook me. When your stocks go haywire like that, it's best to go to cash. You have no edge. But the chemical agriculture, which I'll just call fertilizer stocks, uh yeah, big move 16% last week. NTR. Somebody asked me my favorite in this one. I don't have a favorite. I'm not interested in these. I'm just showing you, you know, relative strength and the group is super strong. Not that one. It's from a Anyway, all right. MOS, another one in the group. That one didn't have very good week either, but it is in the top agriculture right here. Yeah. Top five or six groups here. And you can see the move that it had last week. The group itself was up 10%, XLU was the leader in this group. Yeah, up 16%. And the one I like since you asked is IPI. Why? Well, it's just such a small micro stock that it has a long way to go, right? Um anyway, I used to trade it back in the day. I want to say about 2004, 2005 as it was just pod ash. Now it's intrepid pod dash, but whatever. Uh, not my thing. Anyway, I will mention uh some names in the software group that have bottomed and there was some bottom fishing here the last couple weeks. App held that um 360 area here for a couple of weeks. 360 359 368 366 and now last week the low was 406. So definitely some nibbling going on here in the software group. App was up uh nearly 16% last week. Uh Service Now another one. Uh yeah, getting some love here. Made that low. Insider buying. McDermott buying like crazy and it's up 15% uh last week. Data dog another one up 12% last week. So they're nibbling bottom fishing. But you know, as William O'Neal said, your your strength needs to come from leadership and not from fallen angels. Palunteer, another one, still 24% off its high even though it was up 15% last week, but it had made that bottom there around 126, 128, 127, 126. Now, last week 138 was the low. It's just got a lot of overhead supply and a lot of resistance here. But man, if we could get through the 200, maybe Palanteer. Obviously, you know, war doesn't impact Palunteer like it would other names. All right, so the bottom fishing in the software stocks and then um oh, the power equipment. I did mention Vertive going into the S&P 500. Just a wild time here. Uh yeah, I mean if you look at the fivem minute that thing just yeah look up down up down up with gap lower then up then whoop sell off. Uh but now it's into the S&P 500 to save the day, right? Yeah, probably not. The volatility will likely continue. Um BW is another one in this group that kind of broke out last week. Had a nice week. Just acknowledging strength there. And then NVT is another one that I like. Down 10% last week. Just, you know, this is the market that we're in here underneath the 50. You know, broke out of this double bottom, ran up and whoop. Uh so it's dangerous out there, folks. And we have no edges. The price of oil is going to dictate a lot of the action, not only in oil, but uh the growth stocks as well. So pretty pretty tough tape there. I do have some news after the bell besides the S&P is that hims and hers you know NVO Novo Nordis decided to go in partners to sell their drug NVO I don't think is in a position of strength um yeah it was up 2% being up that much I mean I would take some off the table there up 40% on Monday morning I bet you there'll be some selling in that one and then uh Dawn day one Bioarma was bought out on Friday so congrats That's to the longs there. That's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up except in honor of the great Steve Jobs. I have one more thing. That's Oracle reports Tuesday and um there was a lot of misreporting last week. I don't know what's going on. Uh Bloomberg came out with this fake report that the US government was going to in, you know, have to inspect every chip sale to foreign countries, which was false. And then on CNBC, which you know, I don't get those on my feeds, you know, because I don't watch cable TV, but this was sold told that, you know, the data center that was being built with Open AI is being cancelled. So, you know, the stock went down. There it is. There's your report. It just goes whoop. And so, and then the report came out later that no, that report was false and they're going to continue to build. And that impacted not only Oracle but Bloom Energy which has deals with Oracle. And there you can see as soon as the report came out just it was I mean it was having a you know it gap down at the open. The prior close was what 159 gaps down at the open to 148 but rallied back up you know to 155 156 and then as soon as that report came out man slammed it down to 135. I think that's an opportunity on Monday morning. And there's going to be buyers coming back in realizing that that story was fake. And that's just the market that we have, folks. It's too treacherous, too dangerous uh for me. I think cash is king right now. Just got to let things calm down and just, you know, watch the price of oil and, you know, if these um these war narratives are positive and and and real and actual, not fake, uh then you might have something. But if the war continues on like is expected, you know, more than four or five weeks like someone was saying, uh it could be a long drawn out process and it could be bad for the stock market, but we'll see. You know, a lot of people think that um you know, war is bullish for the market and you know, you would think that the defense names would do well, but GE, a stock that was set up that I thought looked pretty good last week, yet it got hammered down 6%. you know, stocks like um you know, Loheed Martin, you think they would do well. It was up 2% last week. Rathon or RTX and NOC 4%. You would think those would do well in wartime. Uh so, yeah, but once again, you know, if the narrative changes, these are going to get sold, too. So, it's just too um there's no edge. It's just too dangerous for me. So, I'm just going to step aside and uh observe and compile my watch list and keep my bat on the shoulder and wait for my pitch. I want a fat pitch to hit out of the park. All right, thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up.