Raw Transcript
Welcome to my view of the stock market. Today is Wednesday, March 4th. You're looking at a daily chart of the NASDAQ. I'm going to go over my daily review of today's activities. First of all, the NASDAQ was up 291 points or 1.29%. Look at the volume here. Uh, I did mention in the post parade show this morning that there was a a lopsided put call ratio and I know that when people heard [clears throat] about the war over the weekend, they came in and started laying down their puts, [clears throat] it got a little bit out of hand uh with the with the puts, you know, and my thing is if you own a stock and you have conviction in it, if you think it's going higher longer term, you know, do you really need to hedge with a put? I don't use hedges, you know. I think if the thing's going up over time, then, you know, I don't need puts to make money when it goes down. Anyway, that's just my two cents. Over overloaded, the boat was overloaded to one side on the put call ratio. So, you know, they had to cover here uh today. This is [snorts] um the volume 12%, excuse me, 29% above the 50-day average volume. So, we haven't seen that in a while. Shorts got burned. You know, some people calling it a bear trap. or whatever. But you can see why the the bears would be emboldened here. This thing's been in a clear downtrend here with the shorterterm moving averages below the 50 longerterm moving average. But today acted like a a day a day one, you know, attempted rally. It was essentially a follow-through day with volume higher than the prior session. But we need to wait till day four to ensure that we're not buying into just a short cover rally. Anyway, uh the the NASDAQ, you know, good day today, but you know, you got to take it in perspective. And I got to say that, you know, it's up it's up more than a half a percent this week. You see it traded down to that 40week line there and then bounced. [clears throat] the market is not only trying to digest, you know, the ramifications of the conflict in the Middle East, but also last Friday we got some pretty hot inflation data and the betting markets are telling us we're not going to get a rate cut for a while. And I don't, you know, that's not real good for the growth and momentum names, but I think it's digesting that information here this week. And um, you know, we just take it one day at a time. The NASDAQ now 1.8% 8% below its 50, 0.4% below the 21. I just stayed on yellow because to me like it it's just at the lower end of this trade range. I mean, it really is not going anywhere. It's been really tough trading. I'm not being glib or anything. Um, it's been really tough and I know most people are probably underwater uh this year because, you know, the NASDAQ is underwater this year. I'll get the exact amount, but um yeah, when the indexes are like this, I mean, it's it's going to be pretty hard to make money. You know, it's yeah, down 2% in 2026. So, you know, if you trade with the index, you should be, you know, flat or down 2%. Um God, I was up like 20% in January and then give it all back. I looked at it this morning, I was just I was even. Now I'm probably up like six or 7% but you know I don't really worry about the day-to-day or even the week toe fluctuations and so I'm looking for you know longer term gains and trend trading the spy is uh kind of doing the same thing NASDAQ is you know below the 50 and I know a lot of people say it's a bear trap and you know below the 50 every's getting real bearish uh but then yesterday was 1.1% below its 50 and today it closed half a percent below its 50. So, we need to see u the spy rally um through its 50-day moving average. IWM up nearly 1%. I noticed when I came in this morning that Bitcoin was not down. In fact, it was up. It was ramping really good. So, that was telling me that maybe the risk off mentality has changed to risk on. And this is the risk index. And it was up nearly 1% today. So that is also a good sign with the NASDAQ and the IWM and the Dow Jones up a half a percent uh undercut its 50 and now it's 0.8% below its 50-day moving average. All right, I'm going to get to one. I'm going to go to one mag seven stock just um Amazon. It kind of broke out of this little um I don't know little I don't you call that a base. I guess you'd call that a base. Little flat base pattern here. Now it looks like it wants to move higher. You know, I thought it I was watching it this morning. I think anything above like 215, uh, that looked like it was good to go and it ramped well above that. 217 was a high today. So, nice day for Amazon. I'm not going to go through all the mag seven. I will spare you of those details because I know that's all that the financial media talks about. All right. I want to make a point here about leadership. For the market to go higher, we need leaders. The leaders so far this year in 2026 have been the fiber optics, photonics, the um memory and the semiconductor equipment, the hardware names, some of the gold, silver, and copper and mining stocks. Um and then oil has been pretty hot this year, unfortunately. Some defensive names and the software has been on the other side. Um so you know if if we can't get leadership from Micron and um SanDisk which I think we will but you know you can see this has had a big run and you know deserves a break but we need leadership from the leaders and if we don't then we need to have leaders from other areas maybe like drugs or you know I I want to stay away from the commodities but if the software could pick it up and start showing some leadership they certainly have been laggered or maybe the home builders, you know, the data center plays, transportation, something has to pick up the slack to lead the market higher. I think the memory stocks will continue to lead. Um, but we've had a little bit of a glitch this week, uh, last couple weeks, but all it's doing here, and stocks are going to do this from time to time. When you run like this much and only pull back a week and then run this much again, you know, these things need time to rest. Um I I believe they will exert their leadership here going forward and Micron reports in two weeks from today. But this is just a high tight flag pattern and uh you just got to give it some time. You know Sandis kind of the same thing to a little more extreme with this high tight flag and then another runup and now it's flagging again. And so yeah, it was down a couple percent last week and this week it's down a little more significantly. Yeah, two and a quarter. this week, you know, five and three quarters. So, yeah, it's taken a little bit of a um a break and it's down uh 17.5% off of its 52- week high, but you got to give them time. Give them a little room to breathe. They got to wiggle and wobble around a little bit. Buyers will come back in. Um but yeah, it's down. That's a pretty that's a pretty rough week so far. So, let's see if it can close out the Thursday and Friday a little better here. But we need leadership and if we can't get it from the memory stocks, the um fiber optics have been super strong, but also, you know, this one's down 3% this week. Lummentum needs a little bit of a break, too. This thing's run hard. And if it pulls back to the 21, that would be uh fantastic. Sienna's another one they report in the morning, so you better be heads up for that. I think they're going to have a really strong quarter, which is not saying much. Not sure how the stock reacts, but I'm pretty sure the quarter will be good for Sienna. Fiber optics need to continue to uh lead. And then the other group is COR Coherent. I just call it the photonics group. You know, I put uh and this one just pulled back to its five. I mean, no great shakes there. I mean, no big deal. And then same with corning that the five starting to curl down a little bit, but if that thing hangs above the 21, that that's fine. They can reexert their leadership, you know, later on. Uh they don't have to lead every day or every week. Um another one is a laser. This is a really strong name in the group. Had big run up. You know, these things have run up a lot, you know, so you can't expect them to um look at this big volume here, too. They announced new products this week. Yeah, 19% week. So, that's a nice week. And um yeah, VICR is another one. So, the then this photonix group, CAMT, another one. You know, if they if they want to take a little bit of a breather, that's fine. Keysite um technologies. Yeah, gapped up now. Just allowing the five to catch up. That looks fine to me. Just loitering around 300 IPG. another photonix uh stock rallied up now, you know, pulling back in the 21. Uh that's fine. There's I'm going to get to the data center groups a little later on because they could certainly be leaders, too. But this is what has been leading uh the um um semiconductor equipment group has been one of the top groups here, you know, top five. AeHR has been super strong. We know UCT has been having a good year pulling back to the 21. ICR pulling back to the 21 and the larger cap names. ASML we'll pull back to the 50. Yeah, these shakeouts are sharp, man. Look at this thing went up 1547 last week to a low of 1329. It's a big haircut in a short period of time. So that's the way corrections happen, right? They happen all at once. You say, "What happened to my gains?" know it takes a takes a long time to make gains and they wipe them out pretty quick. So that's just the market. That's how it works. All right. TER is another one in this group that I like. Just pull back to the 21. You know, above 300's fine, right? Yeah. Just a lot of strong names. But like I said, if we want to have, you know, a continued, you know, strong rally, something's got to lead. These ones have been leading. Will they continue? I don't know. I would I would think so. I'm looking here for leadership, but you never know. It could shift into other areas. SSRM was up a lot today. Uh on news of they were selling a parcel of their properties and you know, it's been a big winner for a long time. I think this was the leading gold stock in 2025. And you can see it's a top group. Um WPM, another gold name, you know, doing well, just pulling back to the 20 uh 21 and then finding support. So these, you know, are doing okay. They've been leaders. Will they continue to lead? I don't know. Um one day at a time, I would expect them to because they have been the leaders. So if the market wants to, you know, anoint new leaders, that's fine. We just watch it day by day. But it's not going higher without leaders. All right, let's go to um MRNA Mona. They uh was up 16% today. This is the kind of one of the hated names from 2020, the vaccine name. You could see it really rallied during COVID and then you know took you know this is like a ski slope right all the way down you know complete round trip and now uh recently it's been gaining steam. And you could see it broke out of this stage one base, rallied up, then pulled back. You know, a little bit of a breather right after the big move. And then now the last 3, four weeks has been hammering higher and now making new 52- week highs today at 5955. They had a couple different u news events. one partnering with ROI and then um there was a lawsuit a patent suit I believe that um they had won some sort of lawsuit so double whammy today Mona was a big winner of 16% making new highs and if the drugs or the drug sector wants to um assert leadership I mean there's there's a lot of big drug names you know Amjen and Merc if these guys want to start rolling Bristol Myers is another big one. Yeah, Astroenica. Yeah, the these all look pretty good. If the drug stocks want to take um you know, new leadership, I'm all for that. Glaco Smith Climb. Yeah. Novartis. Yeah, these are big drug names. And even the small biotech names. Couple that I like I had on my um ready list a few weeks ago wasn't ready right here. this big cupshaped pattern and now it's forming another little base needs to break out above that 37 area stoke uh therapeutics and also CG NIM CG oncology um breast cancer drug. Yeah, that's a nice little breakout from that 5788, call it 58 area. Not bad, especially, you know, considering what the market's doing. That's a relative strength. Who else do we have here in this group? Oh, eras. This is a the um what's her name? The Taylor Swift. This is a Taylor Swift stock. It's the erasa biotech name. Less than five billion market cap. But man, this thing has been humming and now made a new high today above 15. So that one's on a heater. I would say like a five bagger in a very short period of time in 2026. That's not bad. I should have been a member of the era tour making new highs. All right, that's it for the drug sucks. I mentioned oil earlier. I'm not a fan because it's a inflation area obviously and I don't you know we don't need inflation but you know you get the market that you have and not the one that you want and this is a par pacific this is a refiner making new highs up 9% today DK I've mentioned this one quite a bit this one's now uh consolidating in the base near that standard buy point of 4350 another refiner TEDW I mentioned this yesterday. Well, I haven't mentioned it for a long time, but made that big move higher. Now, it was down four and a quarter% and just um well, 4 and a.5%. It just had an inside day with that big bar, but just allowing the five to catch up. Tidewater still looks really good to me. Um MPC, another oil and gas refiner making new highs today, breaking out of that base area. What else do we have here? Oh, and the old Philip 66. This is a uh Warren Buffett play making a new high, which reminds me of accidental. They love accidental. Anyway, just pulled back to its five. Not bad because um oil was um oil stocks didn't do that great today. This one was up nearly 4%. Which reminds me, we got to go to the XLE. That was down slightly, half a percent. All right, that's enough of that group. Let's go to defense. ESLT. I've been showing this one lately because this is the Israeli manufacturer of gear and uh making new highs up 7 and a half% today. GE is one that I do like. Was asked about it today. It had this little base. It's going to break out. You know, market weakness pulled it back to the 21 and it found support there. So, that's good information to know your stock is uh finding support at the 21. Yeah, I I I like uh GE and defense names, not typically uh leaders. 34113 was the high yesterday. So, that looks like an inside day. All right, what else? Oh, CRS, another defense name that just for took forever. It took forever. It took forever to break out of that space, but when it did, this looks like that earnings reaction down to 284 and now it closed today at 412. So, that didn't take long. That's why these earnings reactions are crazy. 284 in January 29th, maybe month and a half later. Yeah, 6 weeks. Five, six weeks. And there it is at 412. Uh, that's why you got to be patient. I know it's difficult when your stocks are wild like that. Harmon was up by 8 and a half% today and Eric got the 50 rallied back through pulled back yesterday. I mean the weakness was pretty significant yesterday and now rallied 8 and a half% today. Thank you very much. Um I want to go through some energy names also because BE is acting really well. Just minding the 21 now. I know it's been kind of wild and choppy, but you know, overall, if you just look on the weekly, it's just grinding away from this base here. Had the one week, what was it last week where it had a high of 180 90, which took out the old high of 17649. So, higher highs there for Bloom Energy. Just got to be patient with that one. She's a wild job. Um, GE Vernova pull back to 21. One obvious, you know, market weakness and just kind of flat today. That one looks good as well. I'm not going to go through a ton of energy stock. Sorry. I want to get to what I was talking about earlier about the um, you know, kind of a shift, a rotation back into some of these software names. apploving. They uh I did get a chance to listen to their uh their um conference call, the webcast at the Morgan Stanley um technology and media conference. They had a lot of good things to say. I thought they were going to announce a deal, but they didn't. But it was a very bullish call. Um they're going to be reporting strong earnings here again, which is kind of what they do. Um let me see here. What else do we have in the uh software? Oh, crowd. They reported last night. You know, had a good move. Wall Street loves Crowd Strike and and I do too. I mean, a lot of my few of my former students work there. Uh I'm a fan, but you know, it's just so darn expensive and uh because Wall Street loves it and cyber security is an essential for sure. Um but you know they delivered you know accelerating uh sales growth 21 22 23 and accelerating earnings growth. It's just super expensive stock that's all. Service Now is another one that I like making this bottom here at 98 guess below 100 was a gift and now it's just trending higher. the data dog. Another software name looks like it's bottomed I believe and one that I like that is not a really a software name. This is a social media platform but it hit that low of 127 and now this one's just kind of grinding higher. Look, it looks like it, you know, a software name the way it's sold off and the IGV. Um, yeah, picking up, you know, another 2% today. I know there's a lot of comparisons the hardware and the software. I like the hardware because they're trending higher where the software is trending lower. But, you know, if there's a rotation, you know, you could always buy this or buy, you know, a software name, one of those ones that I just showed you. Anyway, just wanted to point that out. gotten in the retail space. Figs, this thing's on fire since its earnings report, you know, it delivered, you know, 33% sales growth, triple digit earnings growth. And yeah, in the Apparel Group, it's kind of hard to find winners. Uh TPR is another one. Looks like it's forming a flat base here. Fivewe flat base. That looks like four weeks tight pattern anyway. One, two, three, four. Yeah, five. So that one probably move out pretty soon. And then um reporting last night was Ross Stores and they had a good response here making new highs bouncing off the 21 here 8% move higher. So congrats to the longs there. I mentioned transportation earlier and the these names have been doing really well. Also 41785 is your trigger there for S a trucking there. Um let me see here. John's Creek, Georgia. Yeah, looks like it wants to move higher there. The other one is JBHT um from Lowel, Arkansas. Yeah, just grinding higher. That looks pretty good, too. Arc B, another one. Uh yeah, bouncing off the 21. That one looks good. Arc best. And then ODFL. Um yeah, making new highs today. Breaking out of that cup with the handle pattern at 208. Look at that. All right. Old Dominion Freight Line. All right. And then the last group I'm going to go over is the um I mentioned the home builders and the builders. Uh yeah, not not looking too hot. Lenar. Um, yeah, not looking too hot, huh? But the data center plays, the home builders, no data center plays to me look pretty darn good, including Argan, but this one just grinding higher, making new highs uh today. And then STRL just a magnet for 420. I don't know what's going on with this thing. It just keeps coming back to 420. just uh teeter tottering around 420 below it, above it. Yeah. And then um Quanto quant services, another strong name in this group. Uh Verative, I put this one on my ready list this morning because, you know, I've been stocking this thing since the earnings break. Wasn't comfortable buying it. You I should have bought it in here somewhere. I didn't. It pulled back three out of the last four days of the 21 and found support. So, I figured, you know, that's probably as good as time as any to get into the stock if you want to own it. And so, I did that. NGT, another one that I like in the group. Um, anyway, all right, that's it for me. Thank you for watching at mctocktrips.com. We never give up. Accept and honor the great Steve Jobs. We have some earnings reports tonight when I got to go to the biggie. This is um Broadcom. This is a funny stock around earnings and sometimes you know they report tremendous numbers and the stock doesn't go anywhere. Tonight you know they beat on both metrics and they raised guidance. I think the expectation was 20 billion 20.5 billion for the next quarter and they came in at 22 billion. So that's one a.5 billion above expectations. I don't know if this thing's going to rip right through the moving averages here. We're going to have to wait and see or if it will have a ripple effect with the other semiconductor names like Nvidia and apparently not ARM or some of the memory names like Micron. Yeah, we'll have to wait and see what they have to say on the earnings call. The CEO can say some outlandish things. All right, Octa reported up okay 2%. We'll take that. See what happens tomorrow. Viv was up quite a bit. Yeah, 10% move. I'll have more on this in the morning as far as um you know what they actually reported. Cracker Barrel. Uh yeah, up 9% on a I thought it was a pretty weak uh report, but anyway, it's been beaten down, so maybe some shorts will have to get out of that name. And then Regetti reporting they got nothing going on and down 3%. I'll be happy or all things will be right in the world when these quantum stocks with no um balance sheet, no sales, no growth, you can see the losing money. Um at least they don't have any debt. But yeah, these things should be uh single digits and so yeah, I mean, but the market's not that efficient, right? It ran up to 58. A lot of speculation on quantum plays and now it's coming back down. went up the mountain. Now it's coming back down. All right, that's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up.