Raw Transcript
All right, everybody. What's up? Just saying hi to everyone. Just kind of checking my bearings. You guys, if there's an issue, please let me know right away. So, welcome everybody. Today's going to be a very, very good stream. We're going to talk about some very important issues that I'm sure many of us are going to be facing very, very soon. So, today's date, what day is it even? I don't even follow because if you're in crypto, man, every day in the market is literally just another day, right? So, it's February the 23rd. It's a Monday. Um, let me know if my volume is bad or anything. Thank you for joining me on a Monday. It's about 5 p.m. here in Istanbul, Turkey. Okay, guys. So, for those that know me, um, my name is Phil. For those that don't, been here for about 11 years in the crypto game. I've seen pretty much every major bull market except for 2013's and every major bare market. Made a lot of money, lost a lot of money, learned a lot. And I think that every bull market that's upcoming is another opportunity to really prove to yourself who you are. And because of all the obstacles you've had to overcome, whether it be in your life or or in crypto, right? You want to prove to yourself that you were better than the last cycle. And I think that we can all admit that in the 2024 year, it was probably everyone's worst year. Despite doing very well in 2017, 2021, like I admit myself, 2017's chop right around here, that's what killed us. And this is where where I really had to learn what a distribution phase was. And that's going to be the topic for basically this video today. the distribution phase, which is the phase that likely ends up liquidating the majority of people. So, so some sort of phase like this that ends up enduring for a long time. Okay, so I think that the bull market's over clearly guys. And just to do a very quick recap on how the market has been trending. I know not everybody has an opportunity to follow crypto news every single day, but um I'm going to try to catch you guys up as soon as possible. Okay, so the bull market goes something like this. It reaches a bottom, guys. Okay, it it reaches a bottom and then it reaches the top. You know what? I I hate showing this um with the chart because it's easier to understand. I only show with the chart because people have an easier time to understand it. But let me show it from a better perspective called the ROI. Okay, ROI after the cycle bottom. So if you look at this, by the way, shout out to Benjamin Cohen is one of the only guys that I actually respect in crypto. There's not a lot of people that I respect in crypto being in the game for 11 years. You can kind of see through people many times. So this guy, this is his website into the cryptoverse. A basic subscription goes for about I think like a hundred bucks a month. I don't know. I think I pay a hundred bucks a month. Not because I need it, but because I support him and because they are very good charts that you wouldn't have access to otherwise. You can figure it out yourself, but it's easier here. So, let's take a look at the market cycles. Okay, we're going to take a look specifically at um the last two cycles. What you're going to notice is this that in last two cycles, one in 2017 lasted 1,68 days and the other one happened to last 1, let me just double check. Uh 1,59 days or 1059 versus 1068. Okay, you guys hear that? 1068 versus 1059. So, we're talking about 9 days within the bull market ending from the bottom to the top. Like, that's got to be pretty wild, right guys? But you know what would be more wild? If it happened the third year, right? Not only did it happen in 2017 and in 2021, but what if it happened in this bull market cycle, too? And guess what? It actually did. Okay, so you can see here, these are when all three bull market years ended. And this one ended in 1062. So would you guys conclusively like agree with me in every single way when I say that the bull market years have basically ended all three times within 10 days of each other? Yeah, you'd agree with me because it's irrefutable that I'm pointing this out. Now another really interesting one is this. Okay, the draw down. Okay, the draw down and also how many days it takes usually. Okay, so the draw down in of course please remember that as the years go by and the market cap increases, okay, it's going to be more difficult to multiply your money. Do you guys think that it's easier for you to go from $10,000 to $20,000 or maybe like 10 million to 20 million? You know, it might be, you know, like when you think about it like that or even higher, right? From like two billion to 20 billion, right? So as it gets higher and higher it's going to be more difficult most of the times to multiply that market cap right not only that there's diminishing returns for both the ROI and also the draw down remember that okay so the draw down has diminishing returns because of adoption mainly okay mainly adoption regulation so you're going to see here basically how much Bitcoin like ends up drawing down from the high so you can see in the bare markets over here. You can see that they've drawn down over here like 80 84% was the bottom in 2015. It I can't I can't show you. I'll zoom in to show you. But right here is 84.67%. See that? Okay. So then the draw down in 2019 is actually less. It actually gets down to 83% roughly, right? So So it's getting it's getting kind of like less and less. So, I would kind of anticipate that that this one might be a little bit less too. Oh, actually, let's check out 2023. Okay. So, this one here gets to about 76%. Okay. Or 77 actually. So, what I'm saying is that it went from like 85 to 84 to 77. So, would it be safe to say based off of the theory of diminishing returns that we're probably not going to hit 77% again? Maybe 70%, maybe 65%. Right, that sounds logical. And did you guys also know that the bare market also lasted the exact same time for both cycles? Okay, let's see if there's a chart that's going to show that here. Mr. Cohen, do you have a chart that shows the the the bottom like how long the bare market cycle lasted? I don't think he does, but I don't need one. I can also just show you here, right? I can show you that in in 2017 it lasted about it lasted actually exactly 365 days. I'm too lazy to zoom in, but you're going to have to take my word for it. So, it lasted exactly 365 days in the 2018 bare market. And then in 2022, it also did the exact same thing. So we can we can basically conclude that the bare markets are equivalent in length and the bull markets are just as equivalent in length. So I need to warn you guys firmly right now that your job is not to make a substantial amount of profit right now. Your job is to mitigate risk and not take on silly trades. I admit that I've been taking on probably some dumber trades mainly because of boredom or maybe desperation to trade. Who knows? not for the profit mainly just because I'm kind of I love trading, put it that way, right? But our goal right now should be preservation to believe in the statistics and the history of Bitcoin and and the and the past trend because with the the pattern that that showed us in the past, there's a very high probability that it's going to happen again. Okay? Even if even if it doesn't happen again, we have to play it out like it will happen because it has happened every time thus far. So the last thing we would want to do is to ignore it, right? And then because we think it can't happen again, right? So you're going to probably regret it if something drastic happens and you didn't catch it. So just wild guess, guys. What if we just said it drop like maybe 70%. Right? 70% over 365 days. Well, that's exactly a October the 6. I just started mine earlier, but trust me, it's October the 6. It's going to be around 35 to 45K. Under 45K, I'll probably start dollar cost averaging. Actually, probably under even like we'll see at 50K that's not that much of a draw down yet. At 50K, it's only 60%. 45K is about 64%. I think under a 65% draw down to up to a range of like, you know, the previous one which was 75% roughly 74%. That's about maybe like a 32 to $45,000 Bitcoin price range. I think that'd be a pretty generous range, right? And then you basically are going to get a very easy repeat, right? There may there might be like, you know, you might be buying at the wrong time, right? I remember buying at the wrong times over here, right? I bought I was buying like even up there, man. I was buying there. But you know that like as the years go by or the months and the days go by, right? Sorry, the days, not the years, the days and the weeks go by, it reaches a bottom and there's only a few more capitulations until it does. And and it's going to happen, guys. So, I don't I care about the bare market, but I don't care about day trading it. I'm just going to sit on the sidelines right now and focus on other things to to either pass the time or something that's going to contribute to the bull market such as my mental well-being, my physical well-being, something to reduce stress, uh something like that, right? But what I do know is that I still want to put in the effort to look at the market every day. You might be able to find some good scalp opportunities, but please make sure that you are very strict about it. So today guys, I'm bringing you here because we're literally entering one of the most dangerous phases of the market. Okay, the crash is not the most dangerous. Okay, the pump part is not the most dangerous. It's the distribution phase. Okay, and this is the phase where the newer traders, they're going to give everything back and more or the newer traders are going to take on kind of bad trades. So guys, I think we can all agree and I say this not for ego or anything or recognition, but I think that I was fairly bearish for a good reason, right? And my main argument for the bearishness is simple as it stands today. The main argument for the bearishness was summarized in basically one sentence. The the technical in the technical charts did not align in any way with the fundamentals. factoring it right. So the fundamentals were very positive but the charts did not reflect that in any way at all. So just because the fundamentals are positive, it means [ __ ] all because what Trading View is, what the charts are, what price action is, it tells the story, okay? It tells the greatest story. Let's just pretend there was a chart that represented somebody's wedding. Okay? Somebody got married and this chart represents their wedding. This couple decides to tell everybody in the world that guys I we had the best wedding ever, most romantic honeymoon, we never fought everything. They tell one thing, but the chart actually just speaks the [ __ ] truth. Okay? It doesn't give a [ __ ] about what the couple tells people. The chart does the opposite of what the couple tells people. the chart instead. It starts describing their wedding or their honeymoon on the chart and it just shows a [ __ ] ton of [ __ ] red candles, man. The complete opposite of what they're saying. So, which one's right? The truthsayer, right? That shows the representation through the charts or the people with their mouth just lying about it, right? So, you could have all of the fundamental factors in the world pointing bullishness, but if the charts are saying the opposite, then you're probably going to want to trust the charts. And then there's that miraculous like, you know, the this one theory, it it never stopped to blow my mind. And the theory goes like this that crypto market is like a ticking time bomb just waiting to [ __ ] launch, right? Because all the fundamental news was positive, but because the technicals were negative, it means that the technicals were lagging behind and they're eventually going to catch up to all the fundamental news. That [ __ ] honestly, it was it was pretty hilarious because it never happened, right? It was almost like saying like like, you know, I see all the red flags, but I'm going to choose to ignore them because it's going to come around eventually. I just see it for what it is. Okay, guys. If you put an elephant in front of me and you asked me what it was, I'd probably tell you it's a [ __ ] elephant, right? I'm not going to tell you, oh, it looks like an elephant, but it could be a lion in an elephant's costume. Like, I'm not going to say that. It's better to just react as the data comes in rather than try to predict, right? So, if you're going to see something so clear, why be in denial about it? Just like, bro, just you know why people are in denial? It's because they have highly leveraged positions. They're about to get liquidated. They're long from the top. They're newer traders. They don't know what a stop-loss is. The list goes on and on and on. Okay. So, so right now, like over the past few years, we had So, we're gonna keep talking about this distribution phase. Over the past two, three years, we had an incredible run. Like, I don't know what people were talking about, man. Like, when they said we didn't have a bull market, uh maybe to not their definition of a bull market, which is a parabolic rally based off of 2017 and 2021, right? But market conditions change, man. You know, things [ __ ] change. Just because you think that things are are going to be like before, they're probably not, right? Things need to adapt. Things need to adapt or otherwise you'll get left behind, right? You have to understand that the bull market's going to be forever changing. Uh just as an example, every year it's getting less and less parabolic, guys. And let let me just give you a quick representation by chart, right? You can you can see it just by looking. you see a massive parabolic move on the week. Actually, let's use even better stuff, too. Or equivalent stuff. Let's use two of my favorites. The super trend indicator. Let's use an ATR of 2.5 instead, though. Um, let's use let's use 14 and 2.5. Now, let's go with an ATR of two. Uh, I'm not going to So, this refers to the average true range if you guys are familiar with that, right? And a multiplier of two. This takes a period over 14 candles, okay? And all over the 14 candles, it takes the average true range, which is an indicator, okay? And it's taking that that average true range, multiply by two to give you this red line, okay? That's the best way to explain it. And if this, it's kind of like an EMA on steroids using different calculations. Okay? And then this the kernel is even more powerful than that. So, if it's going to break these these patterns, right? You know, if it in a bull market, it goes green. Do you guys see it? It goes green. But do you see the kernel? It's stronger, right? It's stronger in my opinion. But it's good to use both. If it if there's a sell on the super trend, it means it dips below the kernel. But what you're going to notice is in 2017, it's just like up, right? It's just up. Like, it doesn't go down. Like, there's no down. It just goes up. And then once it's done, it is done, right? But then if you take a look at the next bull market, it's [ __ ] Like it's really [ __ ] So like we're talking about like we're talking about uh like we're talking about here, right? Another rally that it changes a lot and then it goes up again, but then it turns red again and then it breaks above the red, right? Turns green and then it goes red again. So you can see that like this year is much crappier than that year. It's also much crappier than the years before that. Look how parabolic that one is. And then if you compare it to the most current year now, it's ugly. Look at this one. Green to red, green to red, green to red, green to red. But one thing we do know is this. It doesn't matter how we get to the bare market, we get there. Doesn't matter how we get to the top, we get there. But how we begin the bull market is super critical. And if you guys can take one thing away from you, okay, and you're going to remember this is that if both the super trend indicator and the weekly, okay, the weekly on the weekly, the super trend and the kernel, if they both turn [ __ ] green like there, you [ __ ] better buy. You better buy. This is not financial advice. This is just showing you in a very simple way. Like if I were to talk to my cat who could understand probably I would tell them that when these two red lines turn green, just buy and just hold it for a while. Okay, that's that's what I would say. Okay, just hold it for a while, right? Just hold it for a while. Maybe it's going to turn red to green one more time, but don't worry. Just hold it. Like it's all good. And then if it turns, for example, here, right, just, you know, green to red. See here, it's all red and then it turns green to red, both of them. You might want to buy just hold a little bit. Especially if it's in December, right? You're going to buy, especially if it's in December. You know what I mean? So, you're going to buy in this December, right? This is this is where the bottom was this December or close to around there. You're going to buy around here, right? December or sorry, around here. So, so around around right there, this range, that's where it flipped again, right? So, so I think that it'd be very wise to pay attention somewhere between August and definitely November, Q3, late Q4, right? So, you're you're seeing these strong trends that are definitely going up. They're really clean moves, right? and and and like there are many times where where you could have gone long anywhere and you would have been rewarded in the bull market, right? That's usually how it goes, right? But right now, we're in a completely different phase, which is going to eventually lead to a distribution phase, right? And and markets like that, they just they don't last forever, guys. And we already saw one distribution phase like here already right there. And and another one is likely to come. Okay? And my guess is it's going to be on like if I if I had to really guess now. Before I was predicting it'd be on a small time frame, but I think it's going to be on a freaking huge time frame because we have to respect the fact that this goes back about about 5 years, right guys? That's a fiveyear uh support man. So, I think in this range especially right now where we are, we're going to get some of the biggest ugliest trop that we've seen in a long time, guys. I if I Okay, like if I had to make a guess now, I I really do believe that this one's going to take a long time. Like, this one's probably going to take a while. I think we're eventually going to get to this lower zone. Okay, we're eventually going to like hit this lower zone. And I just think we're going to make one pop. Like I'm talking about a pop, like the biggest pop that we've seen, you know, down to this range, maybe even 30K. So, I think that this whole range is going to be an ugly distribution phase. people are going to like think it's going to like okay the best advice I could give myself and to you is guys like you cannot trade this phase man you're going to see 10 coins move 30% no not 10 coins like 10 coins move over 10% for that day maybe two of them will be 20% maybe two of them will be 30%. Right? But then out of those 10 coins, 10 out of 10 of them will be low market cap $20 million coins with either negative funding fee or very low volume, right? So it's going to be ridiculous to trade some of those coins. Uh let me give you an example of a of absolute I can [ __ ] name a thousand of these guys. Look at Rave. This just happened yesterday, guys. Look look at what happened to you want to trade that. You wanna like that's wild. We're talking about one pump and dump group that has about $10 million to get it going. You know, like $10 million amongst a few thousand people. They'll just pump it up. You are going to be their exit liquidity like that. These pump dumps groups, they exist everywhere in crypto, man. I used to know one of the top guys that ran them. Like this guy Zeke back in the day, Zeke Echelon, right? Back in 2017. I I know exactly how they run. So, he used to make a lot of money. He used to make like he used to run like three pump and dumps a week and then he'd make like at least 200k. That's when I was kind of newer to crypto like before the bull market. Do you guys remember Zeke Echelon? And then people associated me with him and then they thought I was like scamming people or something like dude I don't know anything with that guy. And then it got even worse because he sent me like $15,000 randomly because he watched like a YouTube video of mine and so he just sent it to me randomly because I had my address there and then people are like, "Oh yeah, Zeke and him are working together cuz they tracked my address back in the days." Crypto's crazy, man, back in the days. But anyways, um that's what you don't want to trade, right guys? So you you want to avoid these kind of coins. If you look at today, like look at that. Like you want to you want to trade a coin like bulla that went up 56%. Uh no like I don't see that. I see like I see I I don't see a coin that went up 56%. I see a coin that did that. That's what I see. Right. This is now bola. I just showed you Rave. Um you know there's going to be monster coins looking like that. I think the only reasonable coin to trade right now is um ENSO enso reasonable. And then, you know, you got coins like like this guy here too, right? Like Bio just [ __ ] ridiculous coins. Uh, HGLD, all these coins are just spiking up and then just dropping significantly with really bad price action. So, this is where like traders are going to get destroyed cuz they're mainly thinking, oh, it's just a pullback, right? And then it's going to break out. So, they're going to long these types of coins that they see and they're like, oh, I don't want to I really don't want to miss the next move. And then they're going to they're going to believe this could be a fivewave and then it's going to continue, right? That's that's the hypothesis of most people that lose money in right now, right? They're going to try to long something or they're taking just really bad trades. Like I'm losing a little bit here and there because I'm just mainly I think it's cuz I'm desperate to make trades. Not necessarily chase the money, but more like I'm addicted to the process of trading and I'm taking on riskier trades. like I catch myself, right? But I'm not losing enough to like, you know, be homeless or anything like that, right? It's just kind of play money for now. But for you guys, right, this is where where most people they don't want to miss the next move. So they're going to try to long things. They're going to overtrade. They're going to force entries. They're going to revenge trade to try to make back the trade. and slowly trade by trade they give everything back that they made during the bull phase or they're giving back um they already gave back all of their wins long time ago and now they're giving basically their savings away, right? So so for me this is this is just not a time to be aggressive in any way and neither should it be for you. This should be a time to be very patient. Be selective. Protect your capital and only take very high probability setups. I'm not here to catch every move. Like Warren Buffett, I'm sure you guys know him. What he said is like they asked him one time in an interview like 15 years ago. They asked him like, "Why didn't you catch Google or YouTube, you know, or Facebook or Amazon or any one of those, right?" And you know what he'd said to them? He's like, he's like, I do admit that I didn't catch any of them, but it's not about having to catch them all. You see, I've caught so many already. It's just about needing to catch some of them, right? So, I don't think we need to catch every single trade that comes up right now. So, you know, this is why I'm like I'm building like the kernel is pretty useful, I have to admit, right? The kernel is very very useful, but that's what I'm kind of looking at a lot right now. I'll show you guys it very very quickly. So, so here here's where all the alerts are. Sorry, one sec. My my Discord group is so many things in here. Okay, so this is where all the alerts are. So, so basically, just as an example, okay, so here's the four hours trending. If there's any candles that are trending 4 hours and up on every single coin on 565 coins on Binance, it'll just pop up. If any coin is trending one hour, okay, on one hour candle, it pops up. If any coins are trending, for example, on the 30 minute time frame over 12 hours, it's going to pop up. So, let me give you an example. This one just popped up. Okay, so if I go to this coin, AI, I'll show you what it's doing. Okay. So, this guy here on the 30 minute time frame on the 30 minute uh yeah 30 minute right there you're going to see that this coin is going to be trending on it right when the kernel comes up here. So, so this is showing us just let it load takes a second or two. So, it's showing us right here right see right here it's showing that's trending green now for about 12 hours. So what this means is there's a probability for it to keep trending above here and your stop loss would be below that. So this coin has already moved up for example 11%. It's very quiet on the radar. So this kernel alert of mine is designed to detect breakouts. Okay, that's on the 30 minute time frame. And then there's also the 4our time frame. So if I go look at power right now, it says the 4hour kernel is trending over four days. So if I check out this coin right here, power, you're going to see that it's trending, right? So power on the 4th. So this guy, but now it just broke. So now it just broke. Okay. So this one here, it it notified us right when that closed. So this one was trending for a while, right? So it told us the whole time. actually was probably alerting us for a very long time. So you can see power being alerted for like you know yesterday on the 21st you know it's just going right 21st it was when it was first telling us if you keep going back. So basically like if you look at this channel in my discord group every day you will find something trending eventually. So, when I don't see a lot of coins trending, guys, like this, let's just say you wake up and you come here and you don't see anything, right? You're like, "Oh, there's like one alert every, you know, there's one alert every like, you know, just one coin every four hours." Would that be a good market? No, it wouldn't be. You want to start trading in the market where everything is like lit up green because then you're like a fat kid in the candy store like, "Oh, which which candy am I going to trade?" So right now like I'll trade loosely whatever is here but the truth is like you know I'm going to trade I'm going to trade only the high quality ones but right now what we're waiting for is we're waiting for that Bitcoin distribution phase. Okay, this next one. So if you guys are going to are going to have a system where you're overtrading in this type of distribution phase because you think it's a rally and it's going to go up and you're going to hold long, you're going to get [ __ ] I apologize for swearing, right? So, I'm not here to catch catch the the the garbage moves that are in between. I'm here to catch the clean moves. So, like I mentioned, like be patient, be selective, protect your capital, take only the high probability setups, and understand that during these distribution phases, okay? They're designed for you to be sold on, and they're designed for shorts, major shorts to be entered and take advantage of all the newer retail traders where they think it's going up. So, don't get mistaken during this distribution phase of a rally that's going to the upside. Okay? This is not a time to be buying, you know, it's it's going to be it's going to be a time to just kind of chill, wait for the good trades. So, going into the next few weeks, we'll we'll really understand where we are in the cycle better. And this is a very difficult phase. This is like the the discipline phase, okay? And the traders and investors who survive this phase are going to be the ones that are going to be left to take on the real big moves coming up in the future. So, please protect your capital and stay patient and don't let this market bait you into a bad trade right now. Okay? We've all been victim of it, right? We all are victims of it. I know a lot of the top traders in crypto, right? Naturally, cuz, you know, we all know each other. It's a small community like Cryptoface, all those guys. We're all friends, you know, and like and trust me when I say we're all having a bad time right now and mistakes have been made, you know. Sometimes we like talk to each other and we're like, "Oh [ __ ] I took a [ __ ] bad trade." You know, you hear things from other people sometimes. It's just the talk of the grape vine. This is the distribution phase. This is a fiveyear support. Take it very, very seriously. Don't overtrade this range. Focus on high probability setups. Do not trade coins that have done something like that. Okay? All right, guys. So, I'm going to end the video short here. So once again, our job is to stay stay alert until the bull market comes. Do whatever you need to survive, okay? Don't lose your hard-earned profits. Just chill right now, okay? Take care of yourselves physically, mentally. Prepare for the best that's yet to come. If you guys enjoy this type of video of mine, all you have to do to support me is just hit the like button, hit the thumbs up, and follow me on all social medias in the link below if you guys haven't already. If you guys want to get these types of updates very often, make sure you're joining my private Discord education and private trading group as well, where we try to find trades that we can, but you're going to get some of the best updates. You're going to know exactly when I enter these massive positions of mine. Other than that, guys, have a great day and have a great rest of the week. Bye now. Take care.