Raw Transcript
Welcome to my view of the stock market. Uh the daily review today is for Monday, March 9th, which was a wild, wild, wild and crazy day. Uh we saw a reversal here. And uh there's a movie, it's an old 60s movie called It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad World. Kind of reminded me of that today as I was observing a couple things. One was the price of oil and the oil stocks. And then our leading stocks that you know I've been referring to for a long long time you know the fiber optic group the memory group if I go to my um industry groups here you can see these top groups now of course a lot of them are um um oil and gas now unfortunately but telecom fiber optics and computer data storage those are the two kind of like leading growth stocks. The rest of these are just oil which is tied to the price of oil. Then you get your you know your CAMT and then you get your uh semiconductor equipment which we know and some of the um you know gold and silver stocks as well. So, I'm going to go over those leading stocks. And if we can't get leaders to lead, then we have very little chance of being successful in the stock market. And with if oil is going to be like I woke up in the middle of the night, saw oil at 120 and I thought, man, this is going to be a blood bath today. But, uh, the price of oil came down. I think at the close it was near about 84 or something. So, a huge reversal in oil. which led to a rally in gross stocks and obviously the president said that the war is over. He took the John Lennon song, the war is over. Um, you know, I I don't know, Israel and Iran probably have different ideas, but if we can just pull the United States out, that would be fantastic. Anyway, we're here to make money in stocks. Uh this the NASDAQ was up 308 points, 1.38%. 15% above the uh 50-day average volume. And we could see the volume here on Monday was higher than the volume on Friday with the market up with the index up 1.3%. So we have a follow-through day on the NASDAQ. when we have a follow through day, you know, I have to either increase exposure exposure or add or initiate a position. So, I bought SanDisk and Micron because those are two stocks that I'm comfortable with that I like that have earnings growth and they're leaders. Um, you know, I could have picked some other ones and I'm going to get there in a minute, but I just wanted to point out this is still in a trade range from that 24019 to the 21898. It pulled back to its 50-day, excuse me, it pulled back to its 200 day line, found support and bounced like a mother. Uh, the low is 22061, so it couldn't take out. That's one thing I was thinking. I thought I I thought it was going to be down a lot more when I I saw the futures this morning. It's like this is pretty tame and um I was thinking that it could take if if the if the bears couldn't take out this low. If the bears couldn't push it below the 200, then you know that that's pretty strong case for the bulls. and the bulls. Let's go to a fiveminute chart here because you can see the gap down and that's as far as they could push at 22061. Uh buyers came in, ran this thing up, and then here's where um the President Trump spoke about, you know, the war is over, the war's completed. I'm I'm not exact of the terminology that he used, but the market took it as, you know, we're going to get the heck out of dodge and started rallying big time. Um, so that's how we have our follow-through day today. The spy did not have a follow-through day. Um, it didn't have the um, wait a minute, I might have spoke too soon. Not the first time. Yeah, it had volume higher. It didn't have a 1% gain though. And then IWM had a uh, the IWM I got fat finger there. Um, yeah, they had a follow-through day as well. Maybe not. No, the volume wasn't as high as Friday, so they didn't have one. And the Dow Jones, you know, wasn't didn't qualify. The O DJ. This is why I hate going through these things. All right. A wise guy. Um, yeah, it was just up a half a percent, so it doesn't qualify. Big volume move, big volume reversal on the Dow, though. This thing was down a lot. It was down like 900 points at the you know the first half hour buyers came in and then there you get your you know algorithms triggered on the um you know the Trump um whatever whatever he said you know the war's over go smoke the peace pipe anyway that's the indexes I don't really care about the indexes I mentioned that if you don't have leaders and you know it's pretty hard to have a sustained rally and we saw Saw a sand dish today make a low at the open. This thing gapped down. You know, when I woke up, it was like, it was below 500. It was like 494. I'm thinking, my god, I I don't have a Robin Hood account. I don't have one of those 247 accounts. Otherwise, I would have been buying. I can't buy until two and a half hours before the market opens. So, it's probably a good thing. But, but it gapped down at the open there. 517 was the low. just buyers all day long for SanDisk and then there's your um you know the algorithms triggered on the on the news um and so I now we have a double bottom base pattern here in SanDisk and Micron these is the two that I bought and um it doesn't mean that just because it made that low of 517 that it's just going to go straight up you know through 600 you know back to the old 725 I'm not saying that I bought it because I think it is going to grind higher and I think that was the low. I could be wrong. I'm often wrong and never in doubt. But um yeah, just kind of a grind higher, not not straight up from the from the lows because the the base here is only five weeks. Okay. Whereas Micron Micron base is about a week ahead of um Sandis. Let me go to the daily and see this is a more pronounced. This is a six week um double bottom based pattern. Now I know they have earnings on the 18th. Okay. So that's a that's a big deal. That's a risk event. Um but I'm going to I'm going to try to stick with it as long as it doesn't crash through the 50. I had to take it off the leading stock list last week because it closed before the 50 because rules be rules. But I put this thing right back on. I closed 1.4%. 4% below it's 50 on Friday, rallied back through today. So double bottom. I'm not going to say the um you know the bears got trapped here, but you I think it just kind of you know works its way higher until earnings and of course I think they're going to blow earnings out. You know, just kind of goes sideways here until the earnings date, right? And then bam, make a new high above that 45550. Anyway, that's my story. that can do it. WDC, another one of the um store memory, I just call them memory stocks bounced off its 50. And that that's that's the information that we got today with the NASDAQ bouncing off its 200. You're seeing a lot of stocks bouncing off their moving averages um including uh SanDisk, excuse me, Western Digital. Yeah, it's your textbook, you know, pull back to the 50 and bounce like a mother. Up 7% today. Yeah, there it is. There's your open and then go. Yeah. So, and the other one was um Seagate. Another leading stock and a leading group. Undercut the 50 and now's rally back through 6% move today. That's nothing to sneeze at. All right, I'm going to get to the other group, the fiber optic group, Lummentum, which you know, this thing ran from what 140s up to nearly what was it nearly 800 780 or something. So, it's had a hell of a move. Let's just say in the last year it's up, yeah, 930%. So, there's going to be some profit taking, right? The scary thing for me is, I mean, let's face it, let's be real. Last week, we had a global sell-off. Some of the uh country's indexes were off seven, eight, even more than 10%. An entire country's index lost, you know, more than 10% of its market cap. You know, the German and the French and the Spain and uh the Mexico, a lot of them are down 6, 7, 8%. So, that's no joke. And you never know how low it's going to go or how long that selling is going to last. Last Friday, it was announced that they're going into the S&P 500, which is no reason to buy a stock. That's still an inside day today, even though it moved nearly 15%. Um, but the fiber octus group, you know, we need these leaders to lead and a pullback, you know, is expected after a big move like that. But, you know, you hear a lot of folks um, you know, talking about how, you know, it's over. It made it top and now it's over. is going to crash straight down. Well, you know, you got to give them a chance to um you know, find support, pull back, find support. You got to allow them to wiggle around a little bit. Some people get off the train and now some people get back on the train. And that's just the way it goes um in stocks, leading stocks. Sienna, another one. This thing's up a lot. A lot a lot. Yeah. Almost 400% here. And now it pull back under a cut. came back, you know, to its 50, call that to its 50 in spirit and up 8% today. So, these fiber optic names are doing what we want them to do, right? A AOI, another uh leading group, a leading stock and a leading group uh pulled back to its five. Now, this one had news, let me see, I forget the amount. I think 200 million was a deal. A contract was announced this morning of 15%. You can see the wild action on Friday, which you know scares people when it runs up $15 and closes down $5. That's that's no fun. But you can see here like most stocks, this thing rallied hard into the close up 15 16% on the session. Applied optics. chat with the um with the news this morning. Definitely a leading stock and a leading group and it's leading. It didn't make a new high, but it came darn close and it's being supported at the five. And that's what you want to see. That that looks about as strong as any stock as I can find uh right now, you know, in the leading stock group because they got hit. No doubt about it. They took big hits last week. Um this is um VIA pull back to 21, you know, popped 5% today. That's what you want to see, right? Support at a moving average. That's what we're looking for. COR, this one's going into the S&P like uh Lum and Vertive, which I'll get to in a minute, and Echoar, but it was up 7% uh pulling back to the 21, finding support. So, this is great information. This is what we want to see. Yeah, leaders pull back, but leaders find support. And uh this is laser and this is, you know, been doing this for a while, right? There's nothing wrong with that. Pulling back to the 21 and finding support. Um on its way higher, right? So yeah, another electronic bars is another uh leading uh group. VICR is another one which pulled back to its 50, found support, popped 5%. I mentioned earlier CAMT is another one. Cam Techch pulled back to the 50, you know, so and it found support. So that's what you that's what you want to see. That's really great information. I'm not saying it's going to pop and make new highs, but as long as it's supported there and that line's trading higher, um, you know, that's a that's a good stock to own. Uh, also the semiconductor, you know, the equipment and the manufacturing group. This is a pterodine which has been on a tear. Pulled back to its 50 and popped um you know 9% today. This thing's up 170% in the last year. So you those are big move folks. I mean you double and triple your money. I mean you got to expect some pullbacks from time to time. ASML is the equipment leader and this one pulled back. Undercut it's 50. I had to take it off the leading stock list. didn't want to this one in micron but you know I got to play by the rules and same with applied materials you know come back to the 50 now popping 4 and a half% today that's what we want to see you see giving us some good information here this one didn't even pull back to the 50 but it reversed after making a low today so yeah low gap down at the open buyers all day long it's kind of what you want to see and then form factor another on in the um equipment group, semiconductor equipment pull back to the 50 and bounce 5%. That's all we can ask for from our leading stocks. You know, they're not going to be making new highs every day. But if they can pull back, find support, you know, be stable and not erratic about it, that looks like a pretty controlled move down to the 50. So, that one looks pretty good, too. All right, I'm going to get off this. And I did mention earlier Vertive which uh was included in the S&P 500 and nice response to that 9% move today. The volume was massive. Um you know and I know people say well you know it's kind of a jinx going into an index. Once they get in there they don't do so well. Look what happened to SMCI. This is a little different company. This has got really uh strong management and the volume today was above the um the high volume breakout on the earnings uh move. So yeah, lot to like about Vervive. I know people think it's going to fail since it's in the S&P now, but once again, not a reason to buy a stock, not a reason to sell a stock. It's got great management. It's got, you know, strong earnings, got cash flow, return on equity. Um, it's got, you know, forward growth numbers. You know, we like those big blue numbers. So, I think it's going to be okay. Um, not crash because it goes into an index for Christ's sake. Caterpillar pull back to the 50. This is an oil and gas play as well. Uh, you know, construction data center, kind of a global uh machining company. And you can see how big of a move this thing's had. So, a pullback, you know, is in order and up three and a half% today after pulling back to the 50s for Caterpillar. And the other one is um NVT, another data center play undercut the 50 needs to rally through a little weaker than those other two I just showed you. All right, I mentioned oil and gas. And this is what I was looking at this morning. You know, USO is way up. I don't know, it's like 122 or something, 124. Uh and the and the price of oil WTI and Brent was up a lot. So um it was extended for sure and and then with the comments from um President Trump, this thing just crashed and burned, but all it did was come back to its fiveday line, right? So let's take a look at a fivem minute chart. There you see the uh gap up uh Thursday, the gap up Friday, the gap up uh Monday. Yep. Too much gapping. we got to go back down. But still, you know, close at 104, you know, it's it's just been a beast of a stock. Uh just breaking out. This is very uncharacteristic. Um but anyway, pull back and that's kind of what I wanted to see. And what I was watching this morning is that some of the oil stocks like the um the uh international exploration stocks were were higher and and doing well and some of the US exploration stock like fang were doing well but a lot of the other ones were not. The field services were selling off. A lot of these ones that have crept up here very quickly, these were selling off. Um yeah, field services. um the integrated. Yeah. And uh the drillers were selling off. So I was thinking, man, this is pretty weak. And the XLE was down on the session. So I'm thinking this is pretty weak for oil. There's only a few uh sectors groups that are up and um yeah, this XLE fell half a percent on the session, huh? So, I thought that was kind of strange that the oil was weak. And then, you know, later on in the session when, you know, Trump announced, uh, you know, that I don't really know what he announced the war's over. Um, but all the oil stocks retreated then pretty much. Um, there were some that still, you know, stayed up and were were strong, but including, you know, the field service named Tidewater actually bounced off its 21 here. Uh so it had kind of a inverse reaction to a lot of the oil stocks. This one, you know, rallied into the close after pulling back. Uh so it kind of did the opposite. Um which stands to reason because they have work to do. Um you know, they provide offshore uh support vessels and I believe they install, you know, turbines in the ocean. Anyway, um yeah. So, I was kind of noticing that a lot of these are up and I'm I'm going to point out the ones that This one is up and then reverse lower. This is uh Eric Clapton EC. Yeah, rallied looked pretty good. Then, whoop, started falling off. Then once Trump said that, this thing uh reversed lower. So, yeah, I think it's good for me. You know how much I do not like the oil and gas space. This one was up uh 20 cents. one I put on the ready list I think got slaughtered. I'm not an oil and gas guy at all. I just put that on there because I like the chart. But hey, pull back to the 21. I'm happy. I want to see these things calm down, come in a little bit. Yeah, I don't want them looking like this. This is a US exploration name that broke out and followed through today because they're inflationary. We can't have oil going ballistic. Um, yeah, it's just, you know, we already know the the economyy's not that great and the jobs market's in the tank. The housing market's in the tank. We can't have inflation from this oil. So, anyway, um, yeah, hit miss on the oil. I was happy to see a lot of the sectors were down in the oil group and gold reversed higher um, with with the news here. See the gap lower and then whoop, we're going up. So, this one pulled back to a moving average as well. The 50 found support and bounce, and that's what we want to see. But I'm not a big gold bug either, but I prefer gold going higher than oil and gas. Um, the wheat and precious. Yeah, off the 50. How did AEM do today? That didn't even make it down to the 50. So, gold looked okay. P AS Yeah, pulled back to the 50 and bounced. High croft, man. More insider buying here. You got to when you see insiders buying like this, they know something uh that we don't and they're spending their own money on it. Uh may maybe the they're coming up with more uh silver out of that win maka dig or maybe it's higher quality. I don't know, but they think the stock's going higher. This one just pulled back to the 50 today. So, uh that's a good sign for um uh the go um gold then silver and then copper um southern copper pulled back to its 50 and it bounced. I bet it has a similar profile. Yeah. Gapped down at the open then buyers all day long and then once the uh the news hit the the wires, you know, the stocks really went uh uh to the upside. So, that's a good thing. All right. um talk about other groups because you know I'm always looking for other groups that could be possible leaders and this heavy construction group is hanging in there. AGX uh Lisa mentioned this in the chat that it was you know making new highs up you know more than 12% today. So congrats Lisa if you own that one. Uh that looks like a good move. I watched Sterling in Quanta. Sterling gapped down at the open. It's pulled back to its 50 as you can see. This is a stock that I like. has been a big winner. Yeah. Gapped down at the open but then rallied back up and then into the close had that uh nice strong move and sterling is up yeah 250% in the last year. So you know there's going to be some profit taking especially when you have a global selloff. I mean let's let's be honest folks. We we had a pretty nasty severe global selloff the last 10 days or so. And this is quant which held up pretty well. just pulled back to its 21 uh 5% move today. So, another group that I like that could be a leader is the building heavy construction. I'm not going to give up on the drugs because they can always be leaders. You got to figure that no matter good times, bad times, people are going to get their drugs. They need their medication. This is Synindex Pharmaceuticals breaking out. Man, that thing looks fantastic. I did not check for news on this one, but that is a breakout. Nice breakout. 8%. DNTTH did have a phase three news. This one gapped like 21%. So, congrats to the longs there. XEN, another phase three move. Wow, that one's a 50% move. And then, of course, we know him and hers and Novo Nordisk, you know, they I guess I don't know, 40% move. Novo must be hurting if they have to uh sign up with Hims and Hers cuz they withdrew their lawsuit and they're going to partner here. And so good for the longs there at Hims and Hers. Other drug names that um did okay today that I'm watching that you know this is um nanobiotics. Yeah, up 18%. Not bad. ST this one that I mentioned in post parade this morning. I like the chart. I like it above 37 34 up 8% today. And then Jazz has a nice looking chart as well. Yeah, tried to break out then failed. Came back to the 21 bounced a little bit today. Definitely something to watch for. CAPR, this thing is up on the FDA. Uh the head of the FDA, you know, stepped down, right? And I thought um I shouldn't say anything. I thought Dr. know was bad but this new guy was not any better. Um uh so uh new uh FDA you know hopefully this will help stocks like Capricorn CAPR and then Mona man mRNA continues to um impress up 6% today didn't really get too phased by that selloff last week only down 2% and now rallies back up 6% uh today just in in one day so continued support at the 21 for Merna Uh, and so there's a lot of drug stocks that have potential there and that could be a leading uh group, but you know, if you want it to be a leading group, you want to see like Amgen uh be one of your leaders perhaps and Eli Lily, of course, which sold off. I took that one off the leading stock list as well, but it's just consolidating within a base there. All right, I got to point out a couple things with the news of the taco. This this is this one was really impacted the airlines by the news of the of course you know fuel right and uh so these things started to bounce. I'm not saying they're going to have a sustainable rally but you know bouncing nicely today. Thank goodness. Um they've really been punished in Southwest there made the low and then rallied back up 3%. And in the same group like the leisure services group, Viking, which you know, these things got hammered uh on that uh I guess you'd call it, I don't know, it's been a couple weeks now. We've been at war. So these things are selling off the whole time. Finally reversed and traded higher. RCL, another one. Royal Caribbean. Uh, and then the Norwegian Cruise Lines. Man, these things really sold off hard. Trying to bounce here. Not trying to pick a bottom or anything, but just um identifying that these stocks maybe hit a bottom. The IGV, the software names were, you know, just fractionally down today. Not bad. I noticed crowd strike after hours is down on news only down slightly and then let oh the other one I want to point out is the leisure services um this is I like the chart here and had news today and popped 6% with pretty strong volume 184% above uh the day's uh average volume 176% how about that all right um that's it for me thank you for watching continue to watch the price continue to see how our leaders behave because this could just be a one day thing and they can fall right back out depending upon, you know, the the news, right? It's a news-driven uh market. So, um anyway, in honor of the great Steve Jobs, I do have one more thing and that is after the close, Casey at the bat, uh down 2% pulled back to its 50. What the heck during the session and then rallied? What does that look like? Cap down and rally into the print. It's down a little bit after the print. I didn't read it. I'll have more in the morning on that one. Then in HP, uh Huelet Packard. Yep. Um Bill Huelet and David Packard, right? Uh some great guys. Started a great company. Steve Jobs stole some of stuff from them back in the day. But anyway, up uh one and a half% after hours. I didn't see the report. I'll have it in the morning. These are not market moving. These are not sector moving. These are individual stocks doing okay. Tomorrow we're going to hear from in the morning uh Kohl's Koh's cash which is taking a dive. retail kind of hit by the economic news and the um you know the the jobs data and then another drugto uh which is been selling off like everything else. Yeah, boy that doesn't look too great. And then in the afternoon, Oracle reporting putting a bottom in here. Hopefully they can have a nice report and rally. And then a defense uh name AVA reports tomorrow and then Franco Nevada the uh minor reports tomorrow afternoon. Anyway, that's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up. Take your Dramamine, folks. It's been a ride.