Raw Transcript
Welcome to my view of the stock market. Today is Monday, March 2 and this is my daily review of the uh action today in the uh stock market. You can see this is a daily chart of the NASDAQ which advanced 80 points or 0 point I'll call it a third of a percent close at 22,748. But the NASDAQ really didn't tell the story of the day. You could see the volume here is lower. It's it's higher on the the selling days, the negative days, and lower on the up days. Uh it's been pretty consistent here. As you can see, that heavy volume selling recently. The index closed 2.1% below its 50, 0.8% below its 21. It's at the low end of the trading range. I think we're due for a rally through the 50, but just going to have to wait and see. Um the SPY pretty much the same thing, you know, up slightly. Um the volume here was a little better than Friday. Uh 6% above the 50. Um closed right at the 50, which is right at the 21, which is right at the five. You can see it's been trading tight for so long that those moving averages are all converged at the same spot. O DJ um the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit that 50,000 and that was the top. They rang the bell and now it's been selling off ever since. Closed today uh below its 50.4%. So there's two of the major averages there. um below the 50 and uh the last one I want to get to is the strongest one is the IWM and it bounced off its 50 today. Closed 1.5% above and um yeah, still on a trade range. You can see that consolidating in a base. Nothing wrong with that. It was up almost 1% today. Anyway, I can't go on any further without mentioning. And we know why the SPY and the NASDAQ goes up. It's because of the stocks like Meadow are up today and um Microsoft. I can't get excited about this. These things look like garbage. Um Nvidia looks okay. At least I found support at the 200 day line. But when they're up, you know, Nvidia's up 3%. Those indexes are going to be up all except the IWM. Anyway, I want to get to the oil and gas because the name of the game today was oil and gas after the US and um Israel bombed Iran over the weekend and I guess you know that they had eventually um decided to close the straight of Hormuz which impacts oil which I saw the Brent was almost up to $80 today which is going to have an impact eventually on you know prices that we pay in inflationary which means we're not going to be getting our rate cut. So, we thought we were in a rate cutting environment and maybe not. Anyway, this is the OI from Mscogi. Um, OKE one oak one. Okay. Bounced 4% today. Actually, they're from Tulsa, I believe. Yeah. And not uh they're not Okis from Muscogee, Oklahoma. Anyway, I digress. MPC. I'm just going to go through a bunch of these. I'm not interested in any of them really. Um, this one's close to a trigger there. 2022. Yeah, closed just above it today. MPC, let's take a look at that on the weekly. Yeah, that one looks okay. APA, they've all been ripping, you know, into this news over the week there. And this one was up 4 and a.5% today. Yeah, this broke out of a base a while ago. So, you know, I'm not going to be chasing um oil and gas stocks, believe it or not. Um this is EQ&R up 8%. Nice move. VLOO. Yeah, I mean they all broke out today. This is like shooting fish in a barrel. I I I left my gun at home today. I didn't I didn't shoot anything. Just let these things roll. This one's breaking out of a base here. Matador Resources. It's a US um exploration name. They just bought uh what' they buy or they bought some company. Oh well, I can't remember everything. They brought they brought some company. You can tell I'm not too excited about these moves here. KGS. Some of the charts look good though. Some of these breakouts look fantastic. I just know that if oil and gas are leading, that's a problem. So, yeah, I probably should get into one of them. Um, let me see. Oh, no. I can't do that one because that one reported tonight. I I have so many scratches down here on my uh my notepad today that I'm going to be all over the place. Chevron up one and a half%. That one broke out a long time ago. Here you're talking about the end of December, the beginning of January. So pretty much all of 2026 has been oil and gas. You can see this is Exxon since January. Oil and gas. I should just pop into one of these. How about FRO? Hey, let's just jump in now, right? Not at 26. Let's jump in at 40. Anyway, they've been ripping all year. This one actually started the year at $20. So it's been a twoagger in two months. So really, I should have bought it. I'm an idiot for not, but I just can't get into it. The gold, same thing. They sold off today. The silver did and the copper during the day, but gold held its ground here. And you know, they eaked out little small gains. Ago, Eco, wheat, and precious, and then some of the um silver names give some back. Yeah, this one ran up and then gave some back. Uh High Croft Mining. Uh yeah, 11% move. didn't give anything back. AG, another silver one. Yeah, just give some back today. That's all. And then the um copper plays Southern Copper 21697 trigger. So, it's right around there. Could show up on a um ready list pretty soon. Uh AA I'm going to put this one on my ready list for this week. I like this trading tight within a base here is up 3% already this week. So, a nice start to the week. So, yeah, the um the oil and gas, the uh gold, silver, copper doing okay. And then the defensive names, Rathon, and uh Lockheed Martin. Yeah, these guys got big boost today. I noticed though at the open, you know, they just sold right off, right? It opened up quite higher. I saw in pre-market was up like 8%. I said, "Wow, that's a big move for this type of a stock." 692. Yeah, it opened and closed at the 676. So, lots of sellers in there and that defensive name. Um, Northrup Grumman pretty much the same thing. Uh, no, maybe not. This one closed near the high of its daily range at the high of its daily range and up after hours as well. But um you got to look at stuff like ESLT, another one that had a nice day. Albert Systems is an Israeli manufacturer of uh you know land vehicle surveillance blah blah blah popped and then ran 8%. So that's a nice move for that defensive name. It's been running for a while. The other one that I saw, you know, this is what happens when you jump in early. Look at this bar here in this one. AVAV thought to be a defensive name. It's got to go up, right? Well, it did at the beginning. It opened up $300. You could see there it was over $300. 302, 301, 303. And then not too much longer, it was at 200. Crazy move. $100 move or, you know, 33% here in a couple of hours here. Wow. We're down to 196, leveled off, closed at 208. So, uh, yeah, that's your roller coaster. This is why you don't just jump in at the open. You kind of wait and see because you never know what's going to happen. Um, boy, I'd say that was a rejection at the 50. Wow, that's a heck of a bar right there. Sorry if you're long on that one. Odds, this is a drone manufacturer. Kind of the same deal. I saw a lot of you, my friends own it and they're bragging about it. I I don't want to buy it. I don't know. I'm just not in that mood right now. And anyway, it ran up to a 12. So that's why you got to sell the spike, right? And not too much later here, it's down at 1030. So still, you know, a 6% gain on the session. CW, another defense name. Yeah, making new highs. KOS, just a lot of these defense names were strong today, up 5%. And um you could see they're starting to climb here. Top 15 group. So you can't argue with Mr. Market. So, the oil and gas, the defense, some of the commodities, gold doing well, blah blah blah. All right. This morning, we heard news. I'm going to go through the top groups now. Nvidia cut a deal with um light and co coherent and uh it sparked a rally in the photonics and fiber optics group. This group, you know, already has just screamed past the um the memory stocks. Yeah. Telecom fiber optics. Now what is it? 88. It's 20% above 68 is a data storage which is no slouch but because there's only like you know three four real names in this group with that have some clout you know on market cap. Lummentum uh being one of them. Um, Sienna just just another strong name up today, but a AOI and I, you know, I had people, you can't argue with the market. I know it was up 50s something percent, but in pre-market this thing was cranking and, you know, it was just showing real strength with good volume. It's up 21% again today. So, that's a nice follow through to a 56% move. And, yeah, you know, um, I think it's a buy here. You might think I'm crazy, but 10341 was the high from 2017. So, you got a multi-year base here, like eight years. All right. And if it wants to trade above that level, I'm not going to argue with it. This looks to me like a breakout. And like I said in post parade show this morning, I think 125 130 would be an expected move here before it forms another base. No, you know, something like this, you know, where it forms a a real, you know, base. So, you could say the breakout was there last Friday and then, you know, followed through today. 21%'s a nice follow through day. But anyway, that one looks strong. VIA, another one in this fiber optic group just ripping higher, 20% higher move, 19% whatever. So, these names, this is where the money's flowing to, no doubt. aside from the oil and gas, the defense and the commodities, but this is the top performing group and these are the top performing stocks. So, you know, I want to go where the institutions are going. So, I want to own some of this kind of stuff, right? Um, yeah. So, those are four of the top in this group. Uh, yeah, Light's a smaller company, but anyway. Okay. The next group that I wanted to get to, oh, OPTx. This is a smaller one. Yeah, my my friend bought this one today and he was bragging it was up 16%. So I said congratulations. But uh yeah, looks pretty good. 9:15 undercut the 21 now rallies back through. So um you know it's just everything in that group was on fire today. And um yeah, they were going higher on the news. What and what else is going higher? Well, the deal with Nvidia certainly helped coherent today. Now it's right at 300. I know Sienna was having problems with 300 not long ago. Yeah. Teeter totter teeter totter and then boom now it's a 350 353 355 whatever. So coherence knocking the door now of 300 I think the high today. Let's get this right. 29909. We'll call it 300. A little mambbo treatment. It looks fine. Super strong name up 15% today. Laser, another one in the group. They had news. I forget the news. They report earnings. No. Uh I had it in pre-market. I don't know. I wrote so much stuff down today. I I I can't find it in my notes. But that one was strong. And then the Vicer, the Vicer General, another name in this group, electronic parts group is strong. Another group that I like, another stock that I like is electronic uh contract manufacturing group. This is a TTMI. Yeah, I think that's a buy there 111. This is another one that I was going to put on my ready list. I had it in my uh chat today. That looks good to me. I'll put that one on tomorrow as well as what was the other one I was talking about? I don't know. I'll have a couple tomorrow. Not going to go crazy though in this market. Um, but I do think we can possibly have a nice rally here. Uh, FN is another one in this group. It's got that 53122, just call it five, I don't know, 32 and it bounced off that level nicely today. $35 move for Fabinet. So, that group is strong and Celestica's in this group and it's still struggling. Same with San Mina. Yeah, not a good day for San Mina. That's kind of the way it moves, though. All right. Uh the next group I want to get to is one of those top groups, a semiconductor uh manufacturing uh excuse me equipment group. This is Pterodine. Pulled back a little bit last week and now bounced a little bit today. Forging good. UCT Ultra Clean they say they pulled back last week a little bit bouncing uh today but they look fine to me. And the big one is ASML and just what was it down? Yeah, $27 or 1.8%. Not bad. And then AAT. Yeah, as flat as you can get. Down 12 cents. All right, I can't go any further without Well, I might as well do the other ones. The manufacturing TSCM breaking above a downtrend line. AXTI super strong name. Another one that's just it just wants higher prices. is like it's being rerated here. Uh looks like it's going to 50 or maybe 60 at least before it wants to slow down. And then Poet Poet's another one uh that you know bounced today off the 200. But the group that's bugging me a little bit here had big uh move here earlier in the year. It's got these wedge patterns going on these high tight flags. Breakout high tight flag. Another high tight flag. This is the third one. So maybe the third time's a charm. and they crash and burn. I'm holding these, so I so I hope not, but you know, they're they're acting funny. I got to say that for sure. Uh little wedge pattern here. They're not leaders anymore. And I'm not just picking on Micron here. This is thing doing nothing while the NASDAQ is up. You could look at the STX, you know, crashing through the 21. So these are their partners. When the partners do this, you got to take note here. Uh yeah, that's that's not good at all. Um so getting out of the memory stocks and into fiber optics, photonics, oil and gas, defense, commodities, um semiconductors, just anything but memory stocks. So that's the way it goes. Sandis, same thing. Ever since that short report, it has not been acting well. Leaders got a lead. This is not leading. I know people will say, well, it's just drifting back to its 21, but I just showed you a couple peers. It just sliced to 21. So, I'm not um not a fanboy at all, man. You got to produce or you're going to sit on the bench. And this is a nice high top flag. Should bust out of there higher, but it's not. It's not. And neither is Micron. So, you know, my thesis on Micron. I'll give it to the end of the week, but it's got to either you know what or get off the pot. Uh you can't wait around. Stocks will kill you if you sit there and marry them. They'll bury you. They'll take your money and run. as Steve Miller saying. Um, all right, let's go on to the HBAC names. AO reported earnings this morning. Thought it was really going to rip and then it pull back and then it was really herkyjerky roller coaster type of trade here. Yeah, sell off a little bit here. Then it ran up then it sells off then it runs up. Still a nice day, you know, up three and a half%. But you know the high in the session was call it 113 is a lot better than 105. Anyway um the two leaders in the group are modine manufacturing and then FIX select comfort or comfort systems. Yeah, those are the two leaders. Anyway, uh just pointing out the Oh, and train. This looks pretty good train. the um yeah the double bottom base pattern on the uh weekly chart. We got a three weeks type pattern. So that one likely to go on our um ready list as well. So I'll have a couple of names in the morning. I don't want to get too crazy in this tape. All right. STRL is one that gave us a chance last week. You can see this consolidation pattern and it really pulled back below the trigger here at that 41914. We just call it 420. You can see it here on Thursday low is 415. Friday low 413. Today close at 432. I have a feeling this thing is going to start just grinding higher away from this base here. Um Quant Systems or excuse me, Quant Services was upgraded today. It's just surfing its five now. Really strong name. It's out of the box. It's moving higher. You know, you could buy it on pullbacks. Um, it is extended from its base, but you know, if you want to own one of these names, um, I think those two are pretty good ones to own. MTZ is another one. NASDAQ making new highs today above 300 now. Yippi Cay. All right. Shippers were strong today, obvious reasons. Um yeah, the problem with buying stuff on news is if the news changes, right, and and things go the other way and this trade unwinds and then because it's not really going up on any earnings. Uh yeah, it's just going up on speculation that this um conflict's going to be extended for a while. Okay, come on. Quit being playing around with me. Market surge, you're bugging me. Uh, all right. Making a new high there. Ship is the ticker symbol. And then Starbulk, another shipper. Yeah, you know, they're going like gang busters. They're breaking out. But like I said, things can change in a hurry. And you don't want I don't want to be on the other side of that. I be this one that I bought a while back because I couldn't I couldn't uh trade it. And I know I can't trade it. So I just bought it because you could see how wild this thing was. You know, 176, you know, one day 130 to the next. Um, and so I just bought it and I'm just holding in my IRS. I don't have to worry about it or try to trade it. It's pretty wild. But I think over time it's definitely going higher. I just, you know, on the weekly that actually looks pretty good. A nice elongated handle from that base of 148, call it. Yeah, it's not too far away from 148. Anyway, that one looks good. Alternative energy, I think we need all types of energy. That one looks good, too. GEV is another one that I like in the apparel group. Got to talk some apparel. There's not many doing well, but figs, this is the nurse's outfit. You know, broke out Friday. Big move. 24% move. Followed up today with an 11% move. So, that's kind of what you want to see, a break out of that base. It wants higher prices. Uh Kate Spade and Coach Brand. Yeah, looking pretty good. Just bouncing off the 21 today. Not bad. And then O reports earnings tomorrow morning. I think they're going to be pretty good Christmas uh quarter. It's been beaten down. Anyway, we'll see what happens in the morning. All right, that's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcsdocktarts.com. We never give up. You know, another great Steve Jobs. I have one more thing. That's earnings tonight. And I'm looking at you, Credo. Yeah, you know, they reported after hours and guys were giving me a hard time like I because I was thinking like this is so beaten down. They're going to report a good quarter. I think it'll be okay. And I'm not saying it's going to go to 130, but it went down below 100. And a friend, trader friend of mine said, I'm buying some here below 100, about 98 bucks. I said, I think that's a good idea. And uh right now it's 108 and it's down what 5% which is not great after hours. I would not be surprised to see this turn around tomorrow. Um there's a fantastic report from the last quarter like triple digit earnings and sales growth, you know, up the wazoo in sales and earnings, but they just guided like in line. You they're sandbagging. These guys are getting into fiber optics now here. And um yeah, I just think the market's going to kind of give them a pass on that inline guidance. Um who's not getting a pass is MDB. Uh, no. It's getting obliterated. Sorry, I shouldn't laugh. If you own that stock, that's a lot of pain. Uh, as reported tonight, down 2%, not bad. RIOT Riot kind of tethered to the digital currency markets. Not doing much. Um, SGRY, this is not doing well. Yeah, down 23%. And there is our wrench uncle Dave reported tonight. It's up nearly 9%. It's going to get through the um 200 here. I kind of like that action. The 250, you know, down to 150. You form this little base. You rally back through your moving averages tomorrow. No, 214 and maybe we can get back up to that 250 area and climb out of the box. But yeah, Rich Uncle Dave looking pretty good in after hours. And then Tidewater, there was some confusion to Tidewater's report and they had to come back and um uh restate what what the actual earnings was. But anyway, it's up after hours up to 82. You can see a little consternation here ahead of the earnings is kind of going sideways and now a little pop on earnings. Yeah, I think it'll be fine tomorrow. Um, yeah. Anyway, uh, that's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up.