Raw Transcript
Welcome to my view of the stock market. Today's daily review is for Thursday, March 12. You're looking at a daily chart of the oil. And I said at the beginning of the week that oil is the tell. That's all you have to look at. You know, when oil came down to like 80 bucks earlier this week, you know, our our growth stocks did fine, but you know, it's up a hundred bucks today. And uh you can see what happened to our growth stocks. I'll get to that in a minute. But um if you own oil stocks, they're doing well for the most part. Some some sectors are showing weakness here, which is encouraging for me because it might be a tell on um you know, maybe we get some good news going forward. But I said earlier in the week, you know, we're just one negative headline away from a real, you know, tough time. And we got that headline uh last night, you know, with um you know, the bombs in the uh the straight of Hormuz. Anyway, I don't want to get into details. Just watch the price of oil. If it goes up, you know, our growth stocks were screwed. If it goes down, we're in good shape. You know, it when oil was at 80 earlier in the week, some of our growth stocks had a, you know, real nice run. But, um it's it's very fluid. Haha, pun intended, a fluid situation. And uh I just think that, you know, oil needs negative headlines, negative news, and to go higher. And I think that at some point we're going to get some positive headlines, and it's going to calm down. I hope. But for right now, with oil stocks so high, they need more negative headlines to fuel, you know, higher prices. And at $100, I mean, what are you expecting here? 110, 120, 150. Maybe maybe if oil goes that high then, you know, then owning oil stocks is great. But to me, they've had such a such a big run here. I'm going to go to Chevron because it's the um it's one of the first companies my dad bought for me, Standard Oil Cal, which was bought by Chevron. Alltime high today. It made it up to uh 1988 888 almost 200 bucks. You can see it's um you know 2.7% above its five which is kind of very uncharacteristic for it. It really hugs the five here and even you know traded below it for some time but it's it broke out and it's been running. So this war you know this is this this thing ran up ahead of the war. This is where charts you know can tell you like you know this thing's running up for a reason right? Well, it's also, you know, near 200 and like I said, it needs more negative news. It which means higher oil prices for this thing to trade higher. Um, I just somebody asked me if they should be buying Chevron now or oil stocks in general. And you know, you're betting on negative headlines that more negative stuff is going to happen and oil is going to run to 120 or higher. I just don't I don't think that's going to happen. I could be wrong. Gosh, I hope it doesn't happen because that'll ruin everything. We're going to be in a bare market here. If oil continues like this, I'll get to that in a minute. XOM, another one. This has got got a flatbed pattern. At least it found support at the the 21. But these two are the 40% of the XLE, which was one of the few sectors that was up today. Um, and also the exploration stocks doing well. Um, accidental And that's a um international exploration stock. And then the um US exploration Matador and Devon. Oh, Matador is flat today. And then you have the refiners. This is Warren Buffett stock too making new highs today. And then Valero. The refiners did well, but you know, then I look around. I look at the pipeline stocks and they're they're selling off here. This is a front light down 5%. So this thing topped already at nearly 40 bucks here. Now it's trading at 30. So you know this this is encouraging to me. You know 23% off of its high. But some of these are starting to give up the ghost already. Maybe we get some uh positive uh news here because um we need oil to go down folks in a big way. And this is um the field services name SLB. This one's really sliding here down 8%. So to me that's encouraging. I don't want to see oil stocks go up because they're going to crush the rest of the market. I just go to these leading stocks here. Data storage and fiber optics are the two that are, you know, non oil and gas and and this chemical agriculture. That's a fertilizer name. I'll get to that in a minute. But you got your Canadian exploration, your international exploration, your field services, your refiners, your in integrated. They're all at the top here. And if we lose our semiconductor equipment and our computer data storage and fiber optics, there's nothing left, folks. Um, even the uh gold stocks are um selling off now. So, it's a critical time for the market. I think things are going to turn around because I'm always positive and I just don't think oil and gas are going to dominate the entire um market. But if they do, like I said, we're we're going to head for a definite bare market for sure. No doubt in my mind about that. I got to look around because it's not just US stocks. I know people say, "Oh, my stocks are down today." But this is a global selloff here. U South Korea has been selling off since making that high February 26. I I forget what day the war started, but uh it's definitely not helping around the globe. Um Brazil selling off here after making the high. Hopefully can hold on to its uh 50. Vietnam, another um one that's made a high and now you know below the 200 and just uh really it's just global. This is my point here. I'm just showing you some global um charts here that made highs and now you know now that the war is here, they're all failing. So, this is a global selloff. It's not just your stocks. And um so we have to decide if the war is going to go on and and oil prices are going higher and there's going to be more damage. We have to decide how much exposure we want to have to this type of a market or if you want to buy oil and gas stocks or fertilizer stocks, which I don't. EWW is Mexico and this one you since the war started all of the countries are feeling it and it's not just um you and me and our growth stocks the rare earth the minerals selling off and even the um semiconductors you know the Nvidas and AMDs and Qualcomms of the world are showing weakness here below the 50 now. So, I just wanted to show you a little larger picture here of the damage that oil is causing. Um, you know, I just showed you a bunch of winning stocks in oil. Um, I don't really want to play this game. The chemicals are going insane. This is um bearish as well. Up 6% today, 10% for the week. That's NTRCF. It's a 20 billion market cap. Up 17% this week. just going berserk. These things are going parabolic. These are fertilizer stocks, folks. They normally don't run like this. Um, but you know, wartime here is MOS, Mosaic. Nice pop today. Uh, it's had a pretty good week here. Yeah, up about 20%. We'll take that. IPI, Intrepid Pod Hash is a very small, less than a billion market cap. Yeah, up 15% for the week, breaking out, ripping higher. Um, yeah, this is bearish. All this stuff is bearish. oil and gas and uh fertilizer. I'm not going to go through the drillers and all the other groups there. I think you get the point. Watch oil. If it goes up, we're screwed. If it goes down, we're in the game. And uh want to talk a little bit of damage, you know, besides, you know, the stuff that I just showed you globally, like internally within the US, uh Carnival cruise, of course, cruise lines are going to be hurt. you know, fewer people um traveling and the fuel is way expensive for these companies. Same with jet fuel. Southwest just sold off, made that high up of 5511, now below 40. This war is not doing us any favors, folks. Uh Delta Airlines below the 200. Um ODFL, this is a transportation, trucking, you know, these things have sold off as well. This is really unfortunate. That was um you know looking like a nice little base there, but um you know what are you gonna do? Last two weeks we're at war. People are being killed. Um gas tanks are being blown up. Tankers in the straight of Hormuz. So Morgan Stanley, the financial names just been absolutely crushed. Yeah, this this looks bad to me, folks. I mentioned the Yeah, I'm not going to get into it. I mean, the charts tells it all. Um, okay. Enough with the carnage and enough with the oil and gas and enough with the chemicals. I'm going to stick to the stocks that I own and that I want to own. And, you know, I think they're holding up. Okay. This is Micron Technology. It's still up nearly 10% this week even though it sold off today. You know, it just pulled back and you could see on the weekly here, it's just still flagging u, you know, from this base. It's already done this once, right? ran up, flagged, and then ran up flagging again. And now that we're in like about a six week, you know, flat base type of a flag here. This is setting up perfectly, I think, for earnings, a blowout earnings. And uh not saying that stock's going to rally up 100 points, but it could. It might. In fact, I like its chances here today. It just pulled back to the five. the five and the 21 are pretty close to each other here because it's been consolidating for so long. Yeah, it's um very close to each other. It's a half a percent above the five and 1% above the 21. You can see how close those are. 40144350. This thing's just, you know, on the daily chart consolidating in a double bottom base pattern. I I anticipate, you know, the right side of the base is going to kind of chop until we get, you know, some fresh data and these guys a lot of cash flow, uh, a lot of earnings. Yeah, I was reading somewhere where they have, uh, more profits than Costco, Palunteer. Oh, I forget the names of the companies. Uh, I forget the name. Tesla was one of them. Valent Costco four companies together more profits and those companies their market cap was like 3.2 trillion and this market cap is 450. So I think Micron's got a long way to go to catch up and I think it will. Sandis same thing you know double bottom base pattern here washed out on Monday just like um Micron it's still it's up 17% for the week folks and it's the same thing here. It's got this flag pattern, you know, breakout from the base, ran up, flagged, ran up, and now flagged again. Just pulled back to its 10 week line. You can see there. Anyway, this this this thing looks super strong. Uh to me, um double bottom base pattern on the daily, just pulled back to its five today. Once again though, I mean, if oil goes up to 120 or 150, I mean, these things are going to have selling pressure. No doubt about it. We need things to calm down on the oil front. A AOI was hit with a short report today from Centrini, whatever. This thing's still up quite a bit for the week, too. 11%. So, a lot of these growth names are up, you know, because oil came down earlier in the week and these things really excelled and now oil goes back up and it was hit with a short report. Same with the Luminum. The fiber optics were hit. You know, same thing as they said about SanDisk. you know, the the the top is in they they've gone up too much. They're overvalued. Um, which these are, you know, more highly valued than the memory names. The Lentum still up 10% despite the, you know, the drubbing here today of 8% to the downside. Sienna was holding up well today and then, well, it did hold up well. It's only down less than 1%. All right, Sienna. Woohoo. That's relative strength. Yeah, they just kind of sold it off all day um after the runup. I should go to the fiveminute chart. Yeah, held up. It was positive for a while and then whoop sold into the close. And I'm going to show you a lot of these stocks sold off into the close, right? You know, the they near the near their lows at the close. That one's not quite so bad. How about a AOI? Yeah, they sell them off into the close and then I wouldn't be surprised if they, you know, because they they want to shake out the uh the panic sellers. you know, the retail folks are weak hands and they'll probably run them up tomorrow and then the weak hands will be chasing their stocks back tomorrow. That's kind of a game they play. That that would not surprise me at all. In fact, I expect it. Um, Corning Glowworm, not in the same group, but you know, fiber optic name nonetheless held up okay, only down one and a half%. What else do we got here? Oh, the um electronic parts names. Uh, Coherent. Yes, that was not too bad today. 4% and $10. Oh, Laser was the one. Laser was a strong one in this group. Nope. Sorry, misspoke. Down 5%. But, you know, you got to look at the weekly. Yeah, sold off into the close. That's what happened. You got to look at the weeklys here. This thing's still up 7% uh this week. Coherent up 2% this week. So, you know, take it in drive. good weeks for these stocks, but we still have one more day and we got the PCE indicator tomorrow. This is the Fed's favorite indicator for inflation. All right, moving on here. I mentioned the semiconductor names. The these are the kind of groups that have to hang on. Pterodine up 5% this week. Yeah, it got hammered today, but pulled back earlier in the week, found support at its 50. AXTI. This one was up a lot today. It was over 50 bucks. Close at 46. So, just surfing the five. There's your high of 5097. And we could see the sell off into the close, right? Woo. Trying to shake you out of your dollars there. Hold on to those stocks. Um, this one's been up a lot this year, though. Um, ASML, this one is the leader in this group, and it's starting to lose its 50. This is a little concerning for me. It's a leading stock in this group and yeah, they're starting to really start to show some wear and tear. Applied materials found support at the 50 earlier and now it looks like it trading back there. Hopefully tomorrow we can get a decent day folks and not have crashed all these um names here. Dell's holding up well. It's cup with handle up nearly 2% today while everything else was selling off. So, that is definitely one that I would put on my rad list maybe next week if uh you know the world doesn't burn down. All right. Um some other names that I watch that are showing I think relative strength here. This is Bloom Energy just holding right there above its 1% above its 5day line. Vertive the same thing. A lot of people I posted Vertive. it. Now, this is what it does, right? Since it's it's um broken out of the base, it's just been surfing its moving averages. Now, today it pulled back to its five and it closed, you know, nearly 1% above its five. So, even though it was down 1%, that's showing relative strength to me. I like Vervive a lot, Fastley, another name that I watch and this one. Yeah, it was up today. Geez Louise. Inside day, allowing the five to catch up. This thing's flashing, you know, neon signs of relative strength there. And if the market could just hold on and not just cave to these higher oil prices, um, this is definitely one to, uh, get in on. The Planet Labs today showed some strength and this one's just surfing its 50. Very interesting as it forms this base. ASTS only down one something% but another one that's kind of forming this base here that I'm kind of liking. Um who else do we have here? Oh, I wanted to show you the gold names too cuz gold was one of the leaders for a long time and they're starting to give it up here. Pulling back to the 50 is AU WPM. Um it's up after hours. Yeah, they reported earnings. Pull back to the 50. AEM another leader in this group. Uh SECCO is a copper leader below the 50 now. So you're seeing this weakness in these groups here. Pan-American now down to the 50 and then HYMC. Nice cup with handle here. Nice shake out. Still above the 50. I like that one. I'd put that one on next week provided that you know things, you know, don't deteriorate from here. How about that? Don't want to be an alarmist. Uh just telling it like it is. It's easy to tell right now if these oil and gas uh stocks continue to just dominate, we're done. Um the growth stocks are done. You know, there's just we have to have the um the memory, the fiber optics, the semiconductor equipment, you know, lead the way. And if oil leads the way, then we're cooked. It's pretty simple. I just watch the price of oil because it's going to it's in everything and it's going to be inflationary and um which which cancels our rate cutting program that we thought we were going to get this year. So it's it's a mess. Uh it really is. That's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up and honor the great Steve Jobs. I have one more thing and that's um you know when it rains it pours. Adobe reported tonight down 7 and a half%. You could see the stage four decline here. You know, after the runup, there's your stage three. Now it's been in stage four, and it just cannot, you know, with AI, you know, um taking over some of these um software positions, they're no longer needed, right? Some of the tools for Adobe. So, it's inevitable. Lenar, we got housing starts today and they were down. Uh you know, it looks bad for the housing market, too. I got to be honest. Um they were kind of relying on a um um rate cuts this year and it doesn't look like we're going to get them. It's only down, you know, one and a half one and a quarter% after hours. But you could see this sharp sell off, you know, 144, you know, last fall and now it's at 92. Uh sorry, Lenar. And then here's another software security name. Sentinel one down another four and a half percent after hours. Total stage four decline here. Um software is in its own world of hurt. And then I showed earlier WPM is up after hours. They reported tonight. I didn't really read through that report. I'll have more in the morning on this. And one last thing, AAOI, they have a secondary offering increase from 250 million to 500 million. Just a headline news knocked the stock down after hours. I'm really interested to see if oil calms down how this um how much demand we'll have for this um secondary offering. It's got 71 million shares in the float. They're going to increase it a little bit. little dilution, but you know, top stock and a top group. We'll see how it performs. Um I I hope we don't lose these, but if we do, we just make the adjustment. We cannot control the war or the headline news or the price of oil. We can control how much exposure we want to have to a market that's showing this type of weakness. And if the leaders can't lead or if the leaders are oil and gas and uh I know my place, I'm going to go to the bench and wait for a better time. Thank you for watching at mcstocktrs.com. We never give up.