Raw Transcript
Welcome to my weekly review. You're looking at a daily chart of the Nasdaq. Today is Saturday morning, February 28th, the last day of the month and Monday we start a new month. Thank goodness because the last three or four have not been good for the Nasdaq. You can see it's been going sideways. Choppy market, you know, once again, I'll just do the perfunctory 60 whatever it was, 62% rally, 9% correction. We've just been in this trade range. We're kind of at the lower end of the trade range here. 24,009 hit on October 29th. And it's just been as you can see how choppy it is. Undercut the 50, rally back above, undercut the 50, rally back above. Undercut the 50 and this time it's staying under the 50. Wednesday we had a you know, a follow-through [snorts] day where the index was up more than 1% on volume higher than the prior session. And the first two days of the week or excuse me, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week look promising. It's up 1% and 1.1 and a quarter percent with higher volume than the prior session. And then what happens the next two days? It's down 273 points and on Friday 210 points closing at 22,668, 2.4% below its 50, 1.2% below its 21. So yeah, just a weak weak index. Tech-heavy index with the tech stocks not doing well. We know which stocks drive this index, but there's been a lot of stocks that have been doing well. I'm going to get to that in a minute. First I'm going to go to the spy, which you know, a lot of people like the spy. I don't you know, it's it's it's weak as well. At least you know, the Dow and the spy, you know, got up near the um you know, their old highs. Dow made a high of course 50,000 which was a much celebrated, but now close at 48.9. And then the IWM is just consolidating in a flat base pattern here. Yeah, so just kind of consolidating gains. There's nothing wrong with that. If I go back to the Nasdaq you know, we can see that for the week, this is a weekly review, was down 217 points or nearly 1%. The volume was increased last week. 11% above the 10-week average. And then on the monthly we've seen you know, weakness here. Three of the last four months the Nasdaq has been down, negative in November 1 and 1/2%, negative in December 1/2 of a percent, positive in January almost 1% and then negative in February 3.3%. So um you know, I don't trade indexes, but I do like to have the tailwinds from the index when I do trade it. It helps, but I'm going to look at some stocks here that reported earnings last week. So the first bit of this um uh video is going to be, you know, the indexes then I'm going to go through some earnings reports from last week and then some leading stocks and some winning stocks and then uh a little bit about earnings next week and then you know, the the um the ongoing conflict in Iran with the US and what it might mean for the market going forward. All right, Acadia reported a nice response. You know, when you get that kind of a uh 23% move with that kind of volume, 400% above the 50-day average. That's a move not to be ignored. And it's just it's not going sideways. It's kind of just grinding higher the the last three or four sessions here and allowing this five-day line to catch up here. It's it's still closed Friday 5% above the five. But you know, that's better than being 9 or 15% above it. So it's it's going sideways sideways to higher and allowing the five to catch up. All right, FTDR, another one that reported last week, Front Door from the building and maintenance group. A nice bump off the lows here. If we take a look at the weekly, this is a weekly chart. Yeah, you can see it's still in a base and since it is a week, I've got to go back to Keysight, which you can see this is not breaking out of a base. This has been a very strong group and a strong stock in a strong group. So anyway, ACHC, this is a medical outpatient and you can see that on the weekly here. 40% move. So one again, not to be ignored. It's it now it's it's above its 200-day line here. So that's a significant move for Acadia Healthcare. ECG, this is a building-heavy construction group, which is a group that I like, a top 20 ranked group. But this one rallied and then pulled back to the five here on Friday. Of course, the market was weak on Friday. Did not undercut the low of 114.70. But yeah, just pulled back to its five. So that one looks good. Breaking out after earnings. U Y O U, we had three of them in the security safety group. I think U looks like the best one breaking out of this base here. With you know, massive volume once again. >> [clears throat] >> And there you see here the blue dot with the RS line heading straight north with the the with the index is floundering, you know, you get a stock like this up 40%. Of course, you know, that is relative strength. The other one was Axon. Which as you can see it's just in a stage four decline here and trying to break above. There we go on the daily here. Maybe it made that low before below 400 at 396. Closed Friday at 5:42. You can see this one's been in a lot of pain here. You can see the Weinstein you know, the stages, right? Stage one, stage two and then you get your stage three sideways and now stage four, but maybe it's breaking higher in a new stage one base where it can start appreciating now, Axon. And the other one was Resi. Another one that you know, is in a base here. It's it's not a breakout of a base. It's still within this base here, but it's a nice move and then on Friday pulled back to its five. This one did undercut the low of the gap day, which is not the end of the world. 39.25 was a low and it closed at 38.70, but it did pull back to its five. Still consolidating within a base. You can see it gap lower earlier and now it gaps up. So yeah, of those three I think I think I like U the best breaking out of that base. All right, another one, Yo Adrian. We got a Rocky. Rocky Brands breaking out of a base here on Wednesday. Yeah, 37% move. And then making a you know, 4% move on Thursday. Gave a little back on Friday. You know, 5% profit taking is expected, but yeah, nice move for the apparel and shoe brand, Rocky Brands breaking out. You can see that nice consolidation. This is like a flat base handle here and a big move with volume last week at 34%. We'll take that in our portfolio. So thank you, Rocky. What else we have? Oh, yeah, some of these ones that I don't really care for. Home Depot reported. You know, there's no there's no sales or earnings growth. I hear everyone talk about how great of a economy it is, but people aren't working, they're not going to be fixing up their houses, right? The jobs market is really concerning and I think it's going to hit the consumer here pretty soon. If you know, it already has. Lowe's, same thing and very little growth here. You can't get excited about this junk. STRL reported and then pulled back here on Friday. Back to that old pivot of I just call it like 420 cuz 420 is a nice round number, but 419.14 is the actual trigger and it just pulled back there and closed took above it on Friday. But yeah, nice strong report. This has got you know, you're accelerating earnings growth, you're accelerating sales growth. You know, this is what I want to see in a in a company. You can see how strong this thing's been. You know, this thing's been over a 10-bagger in not that many years, right? 22 was at $31 and now it's 428. So yeah, Sterling has been one of the stronger names, even stronger than Nvidia over time. Speaking of Nvidia, they reported last week. You know, it you know, it fell out. I mean it was down what, 7% last week? And Nvidia does this during earnings. The last time it reported earnings was already in a downtrend and just forming this base. I think the last time Nvidia reported was November 19th. It was already in Yeah, there it is. It was already in this downtrend forming this base. Got a little strength in it the print in the last two sessions after the print, you know, high volume to the downside. You know, it's still in a base. It's not the end of the world. A trip to the 200, stocks are going to do that. So I think it's fine. The big two on Friday were Dell reported and had a nice response, 22% move here with big volume, but it's still in a base here. This is a weekly report. So we're going to look at the weekly and you can see this is looks like it's in a stage three and it needs to move higher here. There's your stage two and it just cannot you know, it's in this big base here, really. And it needs to pop above. Let me get the number here. This high 179.70. So, it's got some work to do. Uh but Dell had a nice move and then AAOI, this is the telecom fiber optics group, the top stock. I mean, excuse me, the top groups. And when you get a stock that goes up, you know, 600 whatever it is, 60 62% and I I go I gravitate towards the top stocks in the top groups and I thought the fiber optic group would catch the data storage and it did because it only has eight stocks in it and and you can see that it doesn't have the um the real big uh market cap stocks, you know, Lumentum is the largest one at 50 uh billion, Ciena 49 and you got some other small players. So, that gives it the ability to move. And I guess I'm going to go straight to those stocks right now, huh? Might as well since I brought them up. >> [clears throat] >> They're the the top performing group just by a smidge. 69 or call it 70%. to 69 for the memory, but this is Lumentum and you can see what kind of a roll this has been on. It just gave you this high tight, you know, flag type of pattern here. And then um you know, >> [clears throat] >> it ran up and gave you another, you know, like high tight flag pattern and now it's running up again. I think it's about time to form. I think it's going to stall a little bit around 700. Uh that would not surprise me. That's the top stock and then Ciena, they report this week. Once again, I wouldn't be surprised if it um um I don't know. >> [clears throat] >> Stalled a little bit here around 350. They're going to report earnings, so so you know, you might have some fireworks. Uh this is certainly a strong group because they've been delivering strong earnings. There you go, another high tight flag, a little consolidation here now it's been ripping for a while, but if I go to the daily, it'll give us a date here, the 5th, which is what? Thursday? Yeah, Ciena reports Thursday. Um before the market opens, so something to look forward to, but yeah, these are the top stocks in the stock top groups. I mentioned AAOI earlier. And then um Yeah, that helps. A 60 62% move helps. And then VIAV which broke out of this consolidation and has run up. And I don't know, maybe starting to stall around 30. I think this group's going to stall now that it's past the memory groups and since I mentioned the memory groups, I got to go to the memory uh SanDisk which was hit with a um But first of all, it went up and I got to go to the weekly. 163% since the breakout here and now it gave back uh 2% a little more than 2% last week. So, I'll take that ratio every time it goes up 163, I'll give back two. You can see it was up 10 weeks in a row. And then I gave back the 2% last week. It was hit with a short report. I put it I put it on my radar list and about a half hour after I printed it, um they got hit with Andrew Left a Citron Research hit it with a short report. Not a lot of valid points there. Just, you know, he's calling it a top and you know, the memory, this is a cyclical group, which I do agree with. But I think the cycle's going to last a lot longer this time and and SanDisk uh it looks fine to me. Another high tight flag pattern here. I I think it's going to 1,000. I think it's going to break out real soon. And I'm going to tell you why. Micron and Nvidia have this symbiotic relationship here. Um every time uh Nvidia reports, Micron sells off a day or two or maybe even three and then it just starts ripping. Uh I got to go back to May 28th when uh Nvidia reported in 2025, >> [clears throat] >> four reports ago. And then what did Micron do? It It sold off a couple of days, you know, and then it started to rally and it really rallied significantly um into the next time that Nvidia reported, which was on 8/27. And since I'm making the relation with Nvidia and Micron, I might as well go to Nvidia and they reported earnings on August 27th. Somewhere in here, there it is. And uh Nvidia sold off and started a base here, but I'm more um concerned uh with the Micron reaction to the 8/27 earnings report because what happened after it reported on 8/27, uh you know, it sold off a couple days, 2% um yeah, just a couple of days and then it starts this meaningful rally. I mean, it went from what? 118 up to 260. Uh and then um >> [clears throat] >> Nvidia reported again on October and excuse me, November 19th. So, I'll go back to Nvidia. Nvidia reported November 19th, which is here. It had already been in this sell-off, right? And then it reports and Nvidia sells off a little bit and continues in this base. But what did Micron do on November 19th? It sold off, yeah, 5%. Uh yeah, and then 10%. So, a couple of days there of selling and then what happened? It went from 192 to 455. Nvidia just reported. What did Micron do? It sold off the last couple of days, right? Well, day three is Monday. I'm expecting a rally here, a bounce off the 21. If that cycle, that pattern continues, Micron's going to report on what? The 18th or the 19th? I think a rally's into the print and we're going to see 500 or more. So, yeah. I don't make predictions, but I expect Micron to uh rally because of that. That's my thesis. I could be wrong, but at least I have historical data backing me. And uh if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and if it crashes through its moving averages, I sell. But SanDisk and Micron are the two stocks that I hold and I know I'm completely biased because I'm long and I want it to go higher. But like I say, if it goes lower, then you just sell the stock and if it slices its moving averages. But just wanted to point out that historical data for Micron and and Nvidia and I think it's going to hold true again uh this week. So, I'm expecting a rally in Micron. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Um another one, Western Digital in this uh computer data storage, the second ranked and the second best performing group. It's just pulling back. This is a weekly. Uh so, yeah, you can see this just a flag pattern. Same with the Micron. Did I show the weekly? Yeah. Just this flag pattern here. And I know that the memory is cyclical. I think the cycle's just going to last a little longer this time. But yeah, it's just run up, you know, after earnings and and doing nothing wrong. It's just uh consolidating in this flag pattern and they're going to report, like I say, in a couple weeks and I would expect the shorts to cover into that print. Um anyway, uh Seagate is the last one I'm going to show in this memory group. You can see it's just flagging here. Kind of a lower flag, you know, this run up. It's It's down the last what? Three weeks. It's sold off, so lighter volume sell-off, that's what you want to see, right? After this run up. Uh call it a low flag here. Yeah, it's just flagging. It's doing nothing wrong, folks. They're not going to go up every day or every week, right? They run up, they need to cuz consolidate a little bit, digest gains. It's like a a sprinter, you know, at the end of the race, you hear them interviewed, they're huffing and puffing. They need some rest. All sprinters need rest and uh these guys will be in their starting blocks once again and ripping higher. And I think memory's going to outpace fiber optics. Uh my bet is which one's going to be uh 100% appreciation in 2026 first? My money's on memory. All right. And if I'm not right, I'll lose my memory and forget that I said that. The semiconductor group, uh ASML is a leader in this group. Uh just surfing its 21, doing nothing wrong. I know you want it to go up every day and every week, but that's not reality. It's down 1% and after breaking out of this base and ripping higher, that's perfectly fine. Consolidate gains, especially you know, like I said, the index has been down, you know, so these stocks have been ripping hard, you know, complete strength in the face of a weak um index, that's that's really good. This one was down less than a percent last week. That That'll pass. It's okay. Uh FormFactor has been a really strong name as well. Up 4 and 1/2% last week and continue um it's it's trend higher. These are all trending stocks, right? One day or one week does not break the trend. Um I know people get excited on on Twitter and they they think a stock goes down, you know, they want maybe there's just day traders and shorting, but that that's fine. I'm more of a trend trader. And I'm going to hold a stock that's trending like that, like a Teradyne here. Down 1 and 1/2% last week and maybe, you know, sometimes when these things pull back, that's that's your opportunity to get in. Maybe it'll pull back to 300 or that 21-day line, give us a chance to get in. It's not giving you much of a chance in strong stocks. They don't give you much of a chance. Very uncomfortable buying strong stocks. I see HR has been really strong. It pulled back last week, which is, you know, fine and expected after, you know, this big move. It was down 5 and 1/2% last week. And then you see CTT, this is a best performer in 2026. You can see it broke out of the base, ripped higher, went sideways for a a short period of time. Yeah, there's your little short period of time. Now it rips higher. So, this is definitely a buy the dip stock so far in 2026. All right. The next group I want to get to is, you know, I mentioned Keys. They reported. This is a very strong group with Cam T, Camtech. You know, I got to look at the weekly. Yeah, you can see it's the eighth ranked group and I think it's right around their top 10 performing group. Camtech, one of the strong performers. It was up 13% last week. Thank you very much. What else do we have in this group? IPGP. Which had been, you know, ripping out of this double bottom base in the last couple weeks. Giving a little bit back as it pulls back to its moving average here. Maybe it'll bounce off the 21 here. But yeah, that group is super strong. Another strong group is electronic parts group. That's Photonics, electronic parts. I got the electric the contract manufacturer. So, yeah, all of these are really strong. APA. You got to look at the weekly here. Yeah, just a wonky move on earnings and now it's starting to stabilize. You can see the earnings line heading due north. The VICR had a bad day on Friday, but still up for the week. Somebody was complaining. What was it? Yeah. It's down 2% on Friday. I'm saying, what do you expect? You know, this thing's up a lot. There's going to be profit taking, right? Had this [clears throat] wonky move on earnings and now run up and just supported by the five. Yeah, I had a somebody complaining to me. But it's Come on, it's still up 18 and a half percent for the week. So, yeah, Friday, little profit taking into the the weekend as expected. Nothing wrong with that. And then COHR, I believe they report this week. No, I'm wrong about that. They already reported. Off often wrong, never in doubt. But yeah, this electronic parts group here is >> [snorts] >> Yeah, top top group. Yeah, up 4% last week was I know what I wanted to get to. Yeah, this group, the electronic the contract manufacturing. This is FN. It was flat on the week. Down on Friday. It was breaking out of the base and then, you know, wanted to come down to its 21 here. With the index being weak, FN was weak. And then TTMI, another one that I like in this group. I like Sanmina. I like Celestica. This is a TTMI was trying to get above that old 111 from a few weeks back. It did get to 113. I know, sleep's off because I'm not sleeping anymore. TTMI. Yeah, I like this one. I think it eventually will take that out. It's just a little head fake there. But you know, with the index weakness, this is what I mean, you know, the you know, the the headwinds in the market, you know, makes it tough on some stocks to trade. All right, so that's another group out of the way. Oh. All right, so now I got to get to the another group, top group, top three group is the gold stocks, gold, silver. This is AU and just a monster stock, man. This thing I think I put it on our leading stock list last summer on $46. And right now close at 127. So, that has been a huge winner. AEM. Another one. Yeah, just yeah, 10% last week. These are super strong names and I think with the news this week and probably going to continue this strength. In the commodities, SSRM, another one. Broke out of this consolidation up 5% making new highs. AGI, another one making new highs. Yeah, I could do this all day. It's like shooting fish in a barrel with these gold stocks. I got to move on to the the silver names. I did put this one on the ready list last week. It was up 6%. One of our one of our winners, one of our few winners. Last week was kind of tough. I've been on a hot streak and then all of a sudden last week, like, yeah, not so good. That's the way it goes in trading. AG is another one in the silver. Yeah, making new highs. That one's strong. Wow, blew right past 30. That's a super strong name. Up 16%. Why didn't I buy that one? I was fooling around with it about 18 bucks back in here, 1816. Yeah. I'm a dummy. That's why. What else do we have here? Okay. The silver. No, excuse me, the copper. Yeah, copper stocks. I think this is a leading copper stock, Southern Copper, obviously. Making new highs. I do like IE. They've got some as an undercut rally there. Not bad. It's been doing well. I mean, me and my friend, he's local guy and there's some they have local mine here. They're going to be pulling copper out, I believe, next year or the year after. So, I think, you know, for a longer term bet, we bet on Ivanhoe. And we did that last year and it's been doing pretty well for us. Anyway. All right, that's enough of that. People don't I don't know. They don't like uh They don't like gold. They don't like oil stocks. I'm going to go to oil next. OII, how can you not like this one? The field services name is up 2% last week breaking out of the base. It's looks like Sandisk. It's been up three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. It's been up more than Sandisk. [clears throat] Last week was the highest volume there and it reversed lower. So, maybe 39 is the high there for you know, short-term pullback. OIS, this thing's been on a heater. It was up 4%. Now it must have pulled back a little bit. Yeah, last couple sessions back to the five. That one is screaming higher. Tidewater, this is one that I do like. I haven't bought it. I've just been watching it go higher. I think I mentioned it here to my group at nmcstockcharts.com at like 64. I just watched it go to 65 and then 70 and then 75 and then 80. I don't know why I don't pull the trigger on these. I just I don't know. I just can't do it. KGS, another one of these oil stocks doing well. In the field services groups, I got to go to the weekly here. Yeah, it was up nearly 8% last week and you can see this base here. Three weeks tight pattern and then popped 8% out of the three weeks tight. So, that one looks good from The Woodlands in Texas, a very nice area in the Houston area, right? The Woodlands. The high-end area. LBRT. This is a Liberty Energy out of Denver, Colorado. And you can see, you know, how many weeks in a row these things have been running. Up 5% last week. Just surfing the five. That's a thing of beauty for a trend trader. So, I should really be in something like that. That's that's my style. Kelly Slater stock just surfing away. And then the next group that I got to get to is the HVAC group. Fix has been super strong name for a long time. Just broke out of this base. Down a little bit last week. TT is trading down 1%. Trying to break out of this double bottom base pattern. Looks like, you know, three weeks tight here, maybe. Yeah, three weeks tight pattern on drain. So, that might show up on a ready list here pretty soon. And then Modine. You know, broke out of that double bottom base. This is probably the strongest name in that group and now it's just kind of going flat. Surfing the five. All right. What other groups do I have here? Got a lot of stuff that are working well. Caterpillar. Yeah, just super strong name. Construction, you know, build out of the data centers. That seems to be the area of strength in the US economy. Building data centers all over the place. Pullback 2% last week. Um Terex, another one. Broke out of a base. Had a three weeks tight. Ripped up higher. Another strong name in this machinery group. And then of course, John Deere. They reported strong earnings and this one's been moving higher. You see it breaking out of the base. Very nice. And then ASTE, another machinery out of Chattanooga, Tennessee. Broke out of a base. Up you know, nearly 6% last week. So, that group is performing well, also. And I think I got all my groups. Is that enough for you? So, if anyone says, you know, the market's choppy, it is. But there's a lot of areas that are doing well. And I just showed you just some of them, not all of them. Anyway, that's it for me. Thank you for watching nmcstockcharts.com. We never give up. Except in honor of the great Steve Jobs. I have one more thing and that's earnings this week here, March 2nd, which is Monday morning. We're going to hear from Norwegian Cruise Lines. And then another HVAC company, AAON, which has this cup with a handle. So, we'll see what they have to say before the market opens on Monday. After the close Monday, Credo reports. [clears throat] Man, that's in a strong downtrend. ASTS pulling back. Undercut the 50. So, maybe it can rally back through. Tuesday morning, Target. I'm interested in, you know, some of these retail names. They've kind of been struggling. On holdings, you know, they Crocs and Deckers had nice response to their earnings. We'll see how they do after the bell on Tuesday. CrowdStrike. Boy, that's [snorts] rough. And then Abercrombie Fitch on Wednesday morning. Broadcom, Wednesday afternoon. And of course, my Sydney Sweeney stock. One of my picks for 2026. American Eagle. I know they're going to report a good quarter. Christmas was very very good to this one and I think they sold out of all that Sydney Sweeney inventory. Uh it's just consolidating within a base here. It's undercut its 50. I expect it to rally back through. Maybe some calls on that one. Sienna reports, I mentioned that one um Thursday morning and then Victoria's Secret. The secret's out. The stock is uh consolidating in a base, but it's been a big winner. And what is it? 18 to uh 62, very nice. And then after the bell Thursday, Costco. Marvell. I don't think Marvell's enough to move the semiconductor space. 70 billion market cap, but you know, if if they fail, others are picking it up, and if they if they do well, I don't think it's enough to really move, you know, ASML and Nvidia and AMD and all them. Okay. All right. That's it for me. Um I do have one more thing cuz I've asked about what the uh news, you know, this is a news-driven market, and we've got some news obviously over the weekend. And how will it impact the market? And I think, you know, I I mentioned at the top of the show that, you know, the Nasdaq's been down for a while. And especially in the month of February, and I think this news that we're hearing in Iran and you know, attacking bombing and uh that type of uh action is already kind of priced into the market. So, I don't think it's going to be a major impact. I could be wrong. But I think some of this weakness is priced in. Um some of this um you know, because they've been talking about it for weeks or maybe even months about, you know, Iran not having um I don't know, regime change or they don't have, you know, nuclear program. Whatever, you know, the story changes. I'm not going to get into it. I'm just going to say I was asked about it. I don't think it's going to make a huge major impact. You might see, and I say you might see some of the gold stocks, which I've already mentioned that the commodities have already been up a lot, right? So, you know, I think some of this stuff is priced in. A lot of it's priced in. Uh some of this silver, copper, and then some of the oil, but you know, I take a look at these pipeline stocks. These things have been ripping for weeks. Um I and SW, yeah, so so this has been priced in here. This is why they've been rallying because of this situation uh this weekend here. So, yeah, I don't think there's going to be a big opportunity. It's People have already been speculating here. Maybe maybe it'll ramp, I don't know. But uh a lot of it's, I think, priced in here. They've made really big moves, and it could very possibly be a sell-the-news event. So, I'd be careful of that, just jumping right in Monday morning. Uh some of the defense contractors might get a little bit of a spike. Uh RTX. Uh Lockheed Martin, LMT, or Northrop Grumman, some of these defense names. But you know, they've been running, too. So, um yeah, some of this might be priced in. I'd just sit back and observe. I think that's always wise. Uh Bitcoin over the weekend, you know, um dropped a little bit down about 63, but it's been slumping for a while, too. So, some of the riskier assets might maybe at the open get hit, but I don't think it'll take very long for the market to get it back. So, if it does um come down some of your riskier assets, like I said Micron earlier, if it pulls back on Monday morning, I think it'll be an opportunity. And some of this stuff, if it does pull back, uh will be an opportunity. And uh like I said, don't just jump into these oil names that have been, you know, up a lot, either, because that that looks to me like it's ready for it. That news event might be a a sell-the-news. So, anyway, that's my two cents. I don't like uh war, and you know, it's not going to be one of these prolonged things like, you know, Vietnam with boots on the ground. That's a thing of the past. It's all air strikes and drones, and maybe they get them back to the negotiation tables and uh and just negotiate instead of, you know, bombing each other and killing people. That's uh my story for today. Thank you for asking. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up. Have a great weekend, everyone.