Raw Transcript: Video WMifJ8c7HcI

Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's your host Danny Hyon. Be sure to hit that like button before you uh as you come on. It's good to be back with you all. As you can see, I am joined by Charmaine Arwani. She's a columnist. Are you an editor Charmaine of of the edi of of the cradle? >> Yeah. So, editor and columnist at the Cradle. Great resource on all things West Asia, West Asia geopolitics and developments in the region. Charmaine, good to see you. >> It's really good to be here. Yes. Again, everyone hit the like button. That helps boost the show as we get started. So, Char, we have to uh we have to talk about so in the last several days, we've seen Iran conduct naval drills in the straight of Hormuz. Russia and China are now going to get involved. The latest report though is that there is now days to weeks for when the Trump administration is going to launch an apparent strike. There's been a massive buildup in the region. Uh there's been and I'm just going to pull it up here. There's been an Axio report. Now it is from an Israeli source. Okay, it's from Barack Ravid over at Axio says Trump moves to close to a major war with Iran. Uh according to uh sources inside the administration and Israeli sources, we are seeing that the Trump administration is it could begin very soon. Uh and so right now that is the news. There's been massive buildup here, by the way. There's been massive numbers of military cargo flights moving ammunition to the Middle East. There's also been F-35s, F22s, F-16s, so many fighter jets and the US of course uh destroyers and whatnot uh uh going to the region. So Charmaine, what is your assessment of this situation now that we are um you know getting closer to war? I think we have to kind of also look uh beyond just the US Iran dimension. You know, why is this happening now for no apparent reason, right? I mean, there's nothing that triggered um the US talking about war with Iran. And I think the larger picture is the transformation of the global order away from, you know, law. uh right uh sort of like how Trumpian politics have impacted Europe. Even Europe is waking up uh realizing that they're disposable for the US unless they you know are able to change their ways and provide some some some backup for for Trump's wars. I mean this particular administration, right? And then of course um as conflicts have broken out in all regions pretty much right um you have you know this the the the the the likelihood of confrontation between the Americans or the western hemisphere and the Russians and the Chinese and the Iranians you know becomes more obvious. And you know, for me, I've always thought of the three mainstated US adversary states, Russia, China, Iran, that certainly this US administration and probably previous ones as well have have viewed Iran as the lowhanging fruit. Um, you need to, you know, you need to this troa of countries is working increasingly closely together. you just mentioned that they're launching military drills in in uh in the region regional waterways um right now. And a lot of this, by the way, is not just a signal against Trump um launching a war against Iran, but also the Russians have laid down some new lines about u maritime piracy and the taking of so-called sanctioned vessels, etc. you know, India took, you know, stop three uh supposedly linked to Iran sanctioned vessels just in the last few days. That's insane. That's not even the US doing it, right? But pushing its allies to do this kind of thing. So, these drills are important, but you know, Russia and China will lose some vital strategic depth in West Asia if Iran falls in any significant way. They're very mobilized in my view. I mean, you're not going to hear from the Russians and Chinese or the Iranians what, you know, level of military cooperation is going on behind the scenes, but it's very clear to me that there is a lot there is new technology and there is new training as well, you know, among the militaries of the of the three countries. So, you know, does Trump want to launch a war against Iran? I believe he will, but I'm not sure if it's now or tomorrow. I think this year we're going to see that because for Trump to advance his sort of, you know, his global movement, his his rejigging of the world order, he is going to have to be kinetic non-stop. I talk about this all the time in the cradle. You know, the Americans, like the Israelis, they have to be kinetic. There's always every single day there's a statement, there's a bombing, there's some action on the global stage. It also uh keeps both foes and allies afraid. You know, they don't want to cross the Americans. And um they're pushing people into a corner and to the extent where they have to take action then. Now, personally, in my adult lifetime, I've never seen a situation where the US military's moved this much equipment, hardware, systems into a region without there being a war. But in Trump's case, you know, he's all about the bluff. So, we really don't know. You know, I I think he wants to be prepared. I think the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu um highlighted the differences between them. you know, Netanyahu probably um stood stood stood up and said, "If if necessary, I'll go it alone." When Trump considered that, he may have been more amunable to the both of them doing something. It's really hard to tell, right? And you you were reading from the Axis report and we were talking about before before the show started that you just don't know with Axius. This is where we all rush to get news on developments in the region, but it's just as wrong as it is right. Um, I do think there will be a war, like I said. Um, but here's the thing, Danny. You know, if if there is any war with Iran, um, the Iranians have dropped the language of a US war with Iran. Like, you're not seeing that that much in Iranian discourse anymore. They're talking about the regional war. And this is really important. Um, one of the cards that Iran has in its hand is obviously closing the straight of Hermas, which everyone's freaking out about, you know, um, where 20% of the globe's energy traverses through. Um, but when Iran's talking about a regional war, it's talking about involving other countries in the region, too, right? Not just striking Israeli targets. That's a given. I mean, the Iranians have said if there's, you know, the US launches anything against us, we're going to strike their forward operating base, which is basically the entire state of Israel. But, um, when when it's when the Iranians are talking about regional war now, um, they're not talking about a short war. Clearly, they're they're not even talking about weeks or months. They're preparing for years. It's been over four decades that the Iranians have prepared for big war against Iran with the US as the adversary. Not Israel that has no strategic depth. Not its neighboring states, etc. Not another Iraq Iran war type of situation, but a war with the US. So, they're prepared for max. Okay, that's something to keep in mind. But in this case, the Iranian media is laying out some regional targets and among those are three Arab states. One is the UAE. Uh another is Jordan and another is Bahrain. Each of these have are significant in some way. Um in the UAE for instance, the Iranian uh Iranian commentators have revealed supposedly um the target banks for Iran would be five banks, financial institutions. That's going to unravel. I mean, the UAE has become the financial hub for much of the world. It's also a place where a lot of laundering takes place. It's it's where gold has been siphoned through to markets and many other things, you know, drugs uh drug trafficking money. Um the the what's interesting is you have a number of Arab states uh who have actually asked Iran to make the UAE a target. So that's another issue. Bahrain because um you know Bahrain is a majority Shia country ruled by minority um Sunni monarchy and uh you know the British and the Americans will be up in arms if that balance is thrown off and uh so that's why Bahrain this is where the American you know the fifth fleet the British naval all of all of them have a big stake in Bahrain um and the third one is Jordan because um of Palestine. So this is Yeah. And ju just another development in the last few weeks uh the Iranian supreme leader Ali Kam has set up yet another um security institution in Iran if you like and it's um it's this new council of defense which is run by um former national security chief Ali Shamhani and you know they set up another one with Ali Lar Johnny like late last year right and that was to to streamline processes in you know um in in the in the runup to war. But I guess someone explained to me the difference between these two new constructs as this Ali Laura Johnny's organization is um is staffed by by by political figures meaning government officials right elected government officials. Um this new organization, the Council of Defense, will have no political um figures there whatsoever. Uh Lar Johnny's organization will deal with everything up to the moment a missile is fired in any direction. Thereafter, Shamhani's uh uh council of defense will take over. Now, Shamhani's council of defense is no political figures. So that there's no you don't have to go through yeses and nos to different political you know the the hierarchy um it's it's IRGC they basically are the ones who run the war thereafter so this organization is strictly under the jurisdiction of uh the supreme leader and this you know this suggests also a serious readiness for war on top of that has come up with a number of really unusual new kinds kinds of statements. You know, he made that comment about, you know, what the Americans think they're going to do with their aircraft carriers, you know, their their weapons. Um, because what's more dangerous than the weapon that is the aircraft carrier is the aircraft carrier at the bottom of the water, right? So, we can sink these is what he's hinting at. But he also said something recently about um what they do to us we should do back to them and more. And there's been this ridiculous discourse among Iranians for a long time about well [clears throat] we're moral, you know, we're the Islamic Republic. We don't do what they do. And Iran, Russia, China, they always try to cleave to international law. the very same law that the the West has completely ignored, that kind of good behavior at a time of such extreme bad behavior is not going to, you know, um, stand them in goodstead. So, I I think I think there's a lot to consider there. I don't know how many viewers, you know, American viewers are even aware of that kind of development in Iran of that kind of thinking and the the new institutions that are sort of opening up right at the precipice of wartime and that they have in their minds, you know, Trump warned that this isn't going to be a few weeks war, right? He just said this sweat this week. The Iranians have never considered a few weeks war. They've always expected this to be a protracted war. Can the Americans handle a protracted war not in their space where their regional allies are unwilling to allow Americans to launch attacks from their territory from US bases etc. >> Yeah, great points uh Charmaine. And I I wanted to uh now uh pull up um you know as you were talking it got me thinking about these these drills that Iran just held. Uh here here's a video. we don't have to uh watch it uh but it can be playing as we're talking about it. So there's the you know Iran as they were talking to the United States and Oman were were holding these drills they closed the straight of Hormuz for a period of hours. It seemed like a pretty stark message sent to the United States that this can happen and they un you know they were utilizing their anti-hship missiles and other weapons that would be deployed as you said in in terms of the Ayatollah Ali warning against these aircraft carriers now which there are rumors there's going to be a third one. And I believe it's what the uh Ford that's heading there through the Mediterranean right now heading toward Cypress and Israel and uh the Abraham Lincoln's already there outside of Oman. So uh talk about this Charmaine like it it seems like what we're dealing with is the US is throwing all of its offensive power into the region and Iran is saying that it has the ability to defend itself. What's real here? Because there are some analysts who are saying Iran is in big trouble now that they've been kind of lulled to sleep. Uh while others are saying all of these assets are vulnerable no matter how much they build up there. >> You mean Iranian assets are vulnerable or US? >> No, that the US assets are vulnerable. >> Yeah. You know, I keep going back like a broken record to the Millennium Challenge game of uh I think it was the year 2000 or 2002. It was the most expensive US war game that had ever been commissioned in history. I think it was well upward of $200 million. It was a three-week um g scheduled game. Um they never named the red team, but it was understand understood to be a Persian Gulf nation adversary state, which was Iran. And within 48 hours of the game commencing, and this is with the US taking out all Iranian communication systems. All right. Within 48 hours, the red team had taken out most of the blue team, the US's team's um uh naval assets in in the waterways around there. And it was so daunting to the organizers that they stopped the game and um made some new rules and reset it like to start over. But the red team colonel was so disgusted because this is not how you learn. You have to do war games in order to learn something about your adversary. He quit the game and went public with the information. This is how we know. But I wrote an article about it some years back, I think for the American Conservative, and I had people in the comments saying, "I've run these war games and it's absolutely true. We either rig the game or, you know, um or cheat." So the US I don't know there's you know there's a lot of technology that we saw in the last two years you in in the main uh Israel's use of technology to kill to kill widely to kill in new ways um to conduct terror acts like the the pager explosions that targeted 5,000 people in Lebanon um the you know the killing of um resistance access leaders throughout the region. There's always surprises that are possible, but it's been a few years now that people looking at the the possibility of war in the region have kind of concluded that if US aircraft carriers are in um the waterways around Iran, there's likely not to be a war because um likewise the Americans don't know about Iranian technologies and now the Americans suspect a lot of um Chinese and Russian technological military resistance to Iran. So, you know, their their aircraft carriers become sitting ducks. So, it's been a while where people have thought, well, if there's an aircraft carrier in the waterways, there's not going to be a war. In this case, you know, there's going to be three. So, it's it's hard to tell, but you know, conventional warfare is unwininnable by the Americans when fighting an adversary even this size, right? This is why the US military has taken to irregular warfare, which is why sabotage and um blowing up of pipelines and propaganda and sort of like regime change operations um have have sort of been at the forefront because conventional ways are not as predictable anyway anymore for the American military in terms of wins. >> Yeah. And there's been a, you know, in in line with what you were saying with this being a regional war, uh we know that Israel is a big part of this uh buildup and the the push to have the United States now lead the way unlike the last time where Israel was apparently out front at least in terms of what we were seeing on the ground u striking Iran first. Now it seems like things have reversed. Here's what um Times of Israel reporting on YNET saying that Hezbollah is being pressed by Iran to join any potential war. Now, of course, it doesn't site any sources. Says Israel is closely monitoring the situation, has conveyed clear warnings to Hezbollah if it decides to intervene this time, the blow will be very painful. What do you make of this Charmaine? I mean, it goes in line with what you said about this being a regional war. And I mean Hezbollah itself has said has said that it would it was uh preparing itself uh to in to stand with Iran and many regional forces have from Ansurella um Hamas among others. What's what do you make of the regional side of this? I mean to the best of my knowledge Hezbollah's current secretary general Naim Gasam has said if they target Iran supreme leader who is the mara for most Hezbollah members meaning like the spiritual leader right Shia Muslims get to choose their mara sometimes it's a small sort of like local cleric and sometimes it's a big one um they have said uh nasam said that if they if they target um we will get involved but that seems to have been the only red line that I've heard about. I I a lot of people are wondering about this. I do have information that I mean again you never know what is being seated to the public for posturing and what is real anymore and I'm not just talking about axis I'm talking about local media as well you know and um is that Iraqi elements a plan has already been um agreed upon between Iran and elements in Iraq that are anti-imperialist and um you know anti-Israel uh so so there's a plan already there. We have not heard of any such plan with Lebanon. There's been a lot of conjecture. But, you know, um, for me, in in the chaos that could ensue from the Americans not doing very well in war and in the war and and Israel getting its head kicked in for a second time, but now with even more powerful missiles and less Iranian restraint is maybe the resurgence of Hezbollah and resistance in Palestine. So, I think there's a lot of unknowns that Trump is risking here. And I know there there um you know, there are people in his ear warning about these things, but we just never know which way he's going to go. I I think I don't doubt the Iranian resolve here. My issue with the Iranians have always been because because they have this thing, right? It's slow and steady. I mean it is a Russian thing and it is a Chinese thing. You know, when the Russians weren't doing too well in the beginning of the their special mil military operation Ukraine, people were like, "Oh, the Russians failed." You know, they and the Russians actually said, "No, we had this was a longer term plan." And we were like, "Oh, that's your excuse for not doing well in the first few months, you know." But in fact, no, there is real value in um you know, dragging out warfare against a beast of an enemy who likes short and fast wars. The Israelis, I mean, since the time of David Bengorian, they've had one military doctrine that's remained consistent, and that was short, fast, hard wars. and Netanyahu broke with that. They've been in a war for over two years now, right? Two and a half years. Um that's draining Israel. Israel has no strategic depth. It's something like 17 maybe 20 kilometers at its shortest, you know, horizontally. Um the Iranians were restrained in in June. They used, you know, to the best of our knowledge, older equipment, you know, not their hypersonics. um didn't show everything they have for sure, you know, and and there have been new developments since then. I mean, they've sort of patched to not just patched up, but next generation of radar. Um I know that I've heard from Iranian officials that what um they had new radar systems that were going to go online. Um and the June war just cleaned up the old one. So, they actually had these things ready to go as well. There's there's a lot going on. We just did an article this week at the Cradle about um uh how the Chinese have been uh working to um learn about Mossad's operations in Iran very very closely uh to because they they expect the infiltration of their society by the Americans or anyone else to be the same. It's kind of like everyone the West is using the same playbook like they had surprise drones from inside Russia attack Russia. They had surprise drones from inside Iran attack Iran. These three countries, you know, in China are are are learning from because it's the same playbook. Uh so, you know, I think um yeah, there sorry, I forgot your question. I went on s such tangents here. Um >> no, it was just about the regional uh war component of this and you're commenting on it just fine. [laughter] >> Oh, okay. Okay. Well, I'm sure I meant to wrap up with some information and completely forgot. But yeah, I mean there's preparedness is absolutely there. The Americans are underestimating I think what's coming. They may surprise us like I said with new tech that is always something um that is possible now that we've seen it, right? >> Um but how many, you know, it's not like the West has, you know, they usually have a plan A and maybe a plan B if they're lucky. How many backups do they have for these things? These things take a lot of time to set up in country. You know, the Iranian the Mossad operation inside Iran took a at least a year to set up. You know, the drone facilities inside Iran probably much longer. So, I don't know how many um you know, new cards they can pull out, whereas they know very little about um Iran's uh capabilities. They don't, you know, the Iranians don't talk about it very much. They they show us visuals of a new missile being tested from time to time, but they also went offline on that just this month. They said, "We're not going to be showing any new equipment." So, you know, it's it's a game. That's why they're called like war games, you know, when they when they do run these exercises. Um, yeah, unfortunately, we don't know how this is going to go, but I do think there will be surprises for the Americans and the Israelis. For sure, Israel will be attacked. And like I said, the my main issue I I did want to make this point. My main issue with this side is that they always do, you know, walk a thin line with um you know, make sure they walk on the line of international law >> when their adversaries absolutely don't have thrown law out the window years before, not just with Trump coming in, right? They made up this ridiculous construct called rules-based order. What rules? Nobody gave anyone a set of rules to read from, you know. Um, and and and so I think they're going to act differently. I think the Iranians are going to surprise us with saying we're going to do to them what they do to us. They do really awful things to us. They target civilians for starters. I mean, is that >> Look at Look at what we just saw. We just saw this uh last uh in January, right? They were targeting their people. Their proxies were mass murdering civilians. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, is is Iran going to open itself to that kind of thing? Because then it's a whole different war we're talking about. >> Well, there have been some who said that if they sink an aircraft carrier and they, you know, highly unlikely they can uh evacuate, then you're looking at thousands of Americans that could be uh in danger of, you know, casualties or or worse or or KIA. >> You know, I'm really sorry to say this, but if Americans don't die, wars won't stop. It's just that simple. You know, I mean, Lebanon here has the experience of in 1983 the US Marine barracks being bombed and over 200 Marines being killed. And I know the US um you know talks about this in term of terror attack sorry terrorism and attacks on military facilities have nothing I mean terrorism is by very definition against innocents right so non-military targets um in this case it was targeting US military troops US marines and um and then guess what happened Danny like the Americans up and left Lebanon They I mean that's the thing but we've been so groomed into thinking that we have to be well-behaved natives while the other side right can be absolute beasts. You know things that we wrote at the Cradle last week in an article that went viral about these new new bombs that they were using that you the Americanmade weapons that the Israelis were using in Gaza that were incinerating humans. incinerating. I mean, no bones left. Maybe like a a spattering of flesh and and and blood drops. That's all was left of these humans. And we're supposed to act well. We're not supposed to kill an American who's armed and shooting at us. Yeah. It's going to be it's going to be a whole new understanding of and new rules of engagement that come out of any US conflict with Iran in my view. Well, I mean, we saw the only massive protests that we saw in the US uh in the last, you know, since Vietnam where hundreds of thousands of Americans did die and then it it wasn't until Iraq and Afghanistan where much fewer but still thousands were dying. Uh that led to massive protest. So, you're right. It it usually does take uh Americans being casualties in these wars for there to be any any push back and then for there to be any reversal. Um and with Iraq Afghanistan, especially Afghanistan, it took >> 20 plus years to get that to happen. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> It's it's crazy to me, but you know, we're seeing so many um seismic changes everywhere. We're not just talking about militaries and geopolitics, but economically, what country isn't suffering now? Socially, you know, a collapse of old ways of thinking and even the new ways. Um, there's I mean, there's sort of no domain that lies untouched. Um, so yeah, who knows? Well, I wanted to actually, you know, I just noticed something I thought uh we could talk about, especially given um you know, how you've been following also just the broader global implications of all of this and the role of uh some Iran's allies like China and Russia and how this all plays out. But I want I want I noticed something very interesting. So, uh we have of course this massive buildup and I'm just going to pull up a this is actually probably an understatement now because it keeps changing. Yeah. the amount of hardware the United States has deployed to the region. You know, 30 plus F-35s, dozens of other fighter jets, and of course, you have the um you know, aircraft carriers and their attendant destroyers and all the other aircraft needed to support their operations. Uh but Charmaine we had this those drills that uh we have talked about that Iran held but now there's joint drills being held by China and Russia and Iran in the straight of Hormuz in and around the straight of Hormuz. Uh these are annual drills called the maritime uh I believe they're called the maritime executive. Uh and they've been happening or the will for peace I should say will for peace 2026. Uh they've been happening every year since 2018. And what's interesting about this Charmaine is if we go by what Axios has said about when a war will launch um they have said that the timeline could be shorter than weeks away. Which means Charmaine that if a war begins if the United States launches a war uh Russia and China will be sailing their n their naval uh carriers and and destroyers and whatnot that are participating in these drills while this is happening which is a very uh I think unexpected development perhaps but maybe you could comment on both Russia and China's cooperation with Iran but also this this is you know Trump has done this in many areas geopolitically the Trump administration where it seems like he's hedging between one or the other powers and people say he's easing and whatnot and then he sends pretty big messages about you know how all three of them are actually targets of of war so your thoughts >> Trump says a lot of things you know the actions where it's at um actions also can change from week to week I mean you're you know expect the unexpected and all our ability to rational ally you know um parse through the information and come up with likely scenarios has gone out the window right um we don't know the level of cooperation between Russia China and Iran u only in the few things like these drills etc that they announce um and we're not going to know and there's good reason for that [laughter] uh you don't let your enemy. I I never understand how the Americans just non-stop talk in the leadup to war. They they provide so much information for their enemy. And maybe it does hasn't mattered in the past because they haven't been fighting pure allies, but I would um argue that Iran is a pure ally at this point in terms of its missile arsenal. Doesn't have to be a pure ally in every area, right? But in terms of its missile arsenal, Iran has become a pure ally of um most of NATO. So these three countries um you know are giving a signal. But as I alluded to earlier, the naval drills in the straight of Hormos um which was announced by Nikolai Patrice, who's Putin's adviser and former head of Russia's security council, who is by the way, you know, people think Putin's hardline. Putin's considered a moderate in Russia. Patrick Chave is, oh my god, you have to read about this guy if y'all don't know. Um I posted an interview on my blog years ago. this guy was going to the heart of things like I had not seen anyone do. So a really remarkable fellow. He's now an adviser to Putin. Um and he said that these drills are part of expanded bricks coordination. Okay, bricks bricks is more of an economics organization, right? These these particular drills are called the maritime security belt of 2026. This is new language. All right. So, in a recent interview um Patrick Chave gave to I think it was a a Russian publication newspaper, um he said that raids on Russian vessels and cargos in the world ocean, this is language you're going to be seeing more and more will become more frequent because the West seeks to disrupt Russia's foreign trade. You know, the Russians are saying that the sea is becoming a springboard for aggression and the West is now reviving and engaging in gunboat diplomacy. Um Patrice and others suspect that the next step is if if these acts of piracy as the Russians call it, meaning like um stopping uh or onboarding sanctioned vehicle u vessels, what the Americans are saying are like dangerous vessels taking contraband and oil, god forbid, you know, that are not allowed to. I mean these are unilateral US rulings right that other countries like India feel like they are pressed to um uphold. So if the west's piracy is not stopped um the west is going to embolden then to try to block Russian access to the Atlantic. Okay. And just take out Russian trade as much as possible. So, Patrick Trav is saying that the Russians need a formidable new navy um to stop this piracy and um the development of a high-tech fleet. As we know, the Russians like the Chinese and the Iranians when they make a decision like that, they're done very quickly, you know. Um so and and and now the Moscow is talking about building a multipolar world order in this world ocean a key objective um that it expects the bricks to also implement. Okay. And and when I when I hear the Russians saying that I I feel like it's a hint to India especially in light of India's you know boarding of vessels very recently in this in this week. um and that the bricks needs to create a full-fledged um strategic maritime dimension. So there's a reason this one's called maritime security belt. It's not just to warn off the Americans, but it's to um warn a lot of players that these three countries um who have full freedom of navigation in any waterway anywhere. And because the Americans have done it, they just have to they don't need to, you know, they just have to recreate the wheel. I heard this from a very close to the IRGC think tanker in Iran years ago. We don't even have to, you know, the Americans go into all waters now claiming counterterrorism, claiming piracy reasons, etc. So now we just go into all waters now. The Iranians go into naval vessels go into the Indian Ocean and far beyond, you know, um because who can say no? We're also countering terrorism. We're also countering piracy. These three countries are also sending a signal in in these in these um exercises that we are going to create a new paradigm for the world oceans and we expect our partners in bricks and other institutions to to comply otherwise we're all going to have our trade routes cut off. >> Yeah, those are great points and I I'll just pull up exactly what you're referencing uh Charmaine. So in this article in the taran times they cite uh prochev and he says straight up that we will tap into the potential of bricks which should now be given a full-fledged strategic maritime uh dimension and that is yeah I mean that's new language the generally bricks has stayed on the level of economic cooperation and developing uh you know payments yeah trade yeah payment systems cooperation around financing Uh, this is different. This is the first time I've heard because these are not new exercises, but it's the first time I've heard um anyone from those three countries use the words bricks alongside maritime strategic direction, >> which is good because it tells us that they're paying attention. You know, like I said, we don't get a lot of sound bites from these governments, these three countries. So, it's hard for us to figure out, do they understand what's going on? Do are they even aware? you know. Um but something else maybe worth mentioning here in passing is um I think these countries are also expecting like mass terror operations by the west. you know, the way China sort of like globbed onto the MSAD operations in Iran and how um foreign actors um turned these riots, sort of peaceful protests into in Iran into, you know, murderous riots, right, where hundreds of security officials were killed, most of them unarmed. things were burnt down from banks to buses, you know, things that um civilians use, right? Um the reason China sort of globed onto that and wanted to understand the intricacies and likely working with Iran to do that is because it expects that kind of thing on its own territory. I I don't know what you think of the weaguer situation, but China was experiencing terrorism in its cities until it um in the 2000s, you know, it it it started these um these um re-education camps. And um you know, when I went to China last fall, it was my first time there ever. You know, I wasn't I didn't go to Beijing. I've I've heard that you will see security forces in Beijing in in key areas, but you will not see them in any any other Chinese cities. They've done a great job in wiping out terrorism, but I think that's going to come back with a vengeance. You know, the Ukrainians have already sort of like um um paved the road for that. You know, Russia expects these kind of activities. Nordstream, the blowing up of the Nordstream pipeline. I mean, please, a Ukrainian, you know, boat did it. It's it's in it's insane. This is a western government operation at the highest levels. Very likely multiple governments. the Russians have constantly fingered the um the British. It's not somewhere we see, you know, um blamed in in in sort of English language media, but um the British comes up regularly in in Moscow's discourse, but you know, there was a the Drewgeba pipeline. Um I don't know if you your your viewers have heard about this, but it was um Hungary's Okay, so the reasons come out in the news again, Hungary just came out this week and said Ukraine is obstructing the Duja pipeline from delivering Russian oil. Drewba means friendship in Russian. It says, you know, the Hungarians said the attacks on or around the pipeline did not damage it. um Ukraine can allow Russian oil to flow, but it won't. Then Slovakia jumped in and said, "Yes, Ukraine is basically operating political blackmail. The pipeline is one of the world's longest." Okay, I think something like over 4,000 kilometers. It goes from Russia to points in Ukraine, Bellus, um Hungary, I think also Poland, Slovakia, you know, all the way to Germany. But then remember in 2023 Pentagon documents leak there was a note of a conversation between Zalinski and his um deputy in which he suggests blowing up the Duchba pipeline to hit Hungary's industry hit Hungary for not cooperating with the rest of the EU on like sanctions on Russia etc. right and so the pipeline was struck several times in 2025. That's what they're going to do. That's what the West is going to do. That's what Trump's new sort of rejigging of the world order is going to get us to essentially. But here's the thing, and here's my question. Will will now Russia, China, Iran, and others do that back because they're not going to learn unless you do it back to them. How do you think Hezbollah managed for 18 years? Okay. A much smaller country, a non-state actor in a state, you know, where its position in the state is contested versus Israel, the most qualitatively um the most advanced military, you know, in in this region. How do you think Hezbollah managed to keep the Israelis at bay for 18 years? Deterrence. All right. they would um strike selectively to send messages to the Israeli military. If you do this, we can do that. Do you want to go there? Do you do you? So I think um I'm very worried about infrastructure and don't forget China's Barri, right? and Russia, Russia, Iran, India's instick, the international north south transportation corridor and the myriad other pipelines and corridors that have emerged from this big push to develop more routes, you know, land routes, land pipelines, land railroads as well as port systems. Um, these are going to be hit. They, you know, economic warfare, I mean, we've seen so much of it. We've seen in Venezuela, we've seen in Yemen, we've seen Cuba now, right? Absolutely. besiege a country, starve them out. Like, this has become run-of-the-mill, and to think that they will not take out all our infrastructure to serve our people is, you know, you've got another thing coming. And, you know, maybe the only way to stop them is to hit them back. I I I really this is like this is rule of the jungle. And guess who's pushing it? You know, it is the Americans. the Americans who um have benefited more from the postw World War II global order than any other country on earth is now shattering it. And you know, Danny, I sent you when we first started chatting the Munich Security Conference report, >> right? >> Which is kind of crazy. I mean if you read it it's um I mean I have to remember I think I think the title of it is just for viewers to know is under destruction. So, and in it, you know, they p basically, so this is Europe, okay? Europe security apparatus basically saying, and I quote, "The world has entered a period of wrecking ball politics." Um, sweeping destruction rather than careful reforms and policy corrections is the order of the day. The most prominent of those who promise to free their country from the existing orders constraints and rebuild a stronger more prosperous nation is the current US administration. As a result, more than 80 years after construction begun, the US last led post 1945 international order is now under destruction. They consistently named Trump as the leader of the destruction, the era of destruction. They call Trump and his cronies, meaning also political parties that like Trump in Europe as demolition men, you know, and uh I mean it just it's it's a great read. By the way, Munich Security report, okay, that just came out uh in February. Um and the European nations have to now find another way um to not be disposed of, you know, to be relevant because um you know they're saying the Americans Trump administration is trying to kick out liberalism once and for all. Um but liberalism is kind of how Trump's codory have fared. You know, the billionaire class, how they've done well, right? U liberalism has ushered in an era of of um billionaire governments right throughout the western hemisphere. Um and uh so I'm not sure I mean the Europeans really really don't understand how bad their situation is. Um and and they're worried, and they say this in the report, that we're worried that what Trump is doing now is ushering in a a period of um the US, Russia, and China establishing spheres of influence, which really leaves no place for Europe. Um and and and they're saying that we in order to destroy the destroyers, we have to be as bold as the actors doing the destroying. I don't see Europe going that way. I see Europe being sidelined. But then of course they, you know, they they they talk about Trump and these people, the demolition men bringing in um, you know, a culture war and resurrect resurrecting a supposed prefeminist white Christian past, which takes us right to Marco Rubio's speech at the right >> Munich Security Conference. And and this all plays into whether there's going to be a war or not. I mean, it's really worth discussing because what I'm seeing basically is that what the Americans are saying and doing, what the Europeans are saying and doing, um, is giving us some brand new geopolitical information. Okay, we cannot ignore this. This is how they're seeing things and they're going to be move um forward on the basis of these observations and these statements of theirs. we should be playing, you know, paying close attention to this. Um, so, you know, on one hand, the the Europeans, you know, um, are derisive about how the Americans are operating. On the other hand, they're not condemning US attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran, right? Neither are their institutions, not not the IAEA. They're not allowed to do so. the UN Security Council. The Europeans seemed fine with the US kidnapping of a sitting president in Venezuela. They seem fine with the economic blockade of Cuba. Um, you can't have your cake and eat it too. Um, I think Europe's in a very bad place and it won't recover soon enough to help the Americans along with their agenda. So the Americans in my view and we've we've had we've had some hints of this that the US talking about regime changing European countries and that will be interesting. You know that's the end of the Atlantic alliance or with I mean if they can listen Danny what if they get in what if the Trump regime changes the UK France and Germany arguably their most important European partners and gets in right-wing you know anti-immigrant whatever let's destroy the world type people where's the money going to come from to do this you know the the fact is the only thing the Chinese the Russians the Iranians and their allies in the multipolar world need to do is disrupt um trade in western currencies and particularly the US dollar. Then there's nothing there's no money for them to go forth on this path of global destruction and demolition. >> Yeah, those are all great points, Charmaine. And uh I wanted to uh go a little back and then we can definitely move uh uh back forward because I definitely want to uh play a bit of that Rubio speech. But I wanted to also pull up because there was a piece in the um in the cradle that you mentioned uh about how China uh uh is moving to help Iran contain Mossad inside of the country. And you mentioned, you know, I've been to Shinjang a couple of times and I've even been to in Arumchi, they have a um uh they have a whole expo for actually new security forces to look at what happened during that period between 1990 and 2016 where hundreds if not thousands of Chinese people were killed by so-called weaguer separatists who were actually being trained um on the border regions outside of the country. And uh so there's a lot of sensitivity to this and a lot of emphasis on it both on border policy and on just general security in that part of the country to keep that uh from coming back to keep it away. And so uh the point I wanted to ask you about though is uh what exactly was covered in this piece because I've also been hearing about cooperation between Iran and China on this area and it is one that given the way that Israel and the US like to wage war now or maybe how they've always liked to wage war since the US became hedgeimon 1945 is to um create this incredible internal disruption. chaos, division, and dissension so that uh whatever they do kinetically can be that much more effective or even just effective at all. >> Well, I mean, we've seen through these wars, the the Israeli one and the US ones and the and the foreign backed ones inside Iran, etc., um a great deal of technology and intelligence penetration. intelligence penetration that has been made possible by technology, right? Let's just call it intelligence warfare, but heavily dependent on technology. Um, and the Chinese are have noticed that um, uh, intelligence, this kind of intelligence warfare now precedes kinetic military engagement. what we've seen from the Israelis and the Americans is due an internal shock and awe, right? Um decapitation of maybe organizations or leaders and then you think you can sort of like run free after that, right? That isn't always the case. That wasn't the case in um in Lebanon. the um Lebanese special forces, the Hisbellah special forces were on the front front lines stopping any Israeli troop encroachment into Lebanon after the pager attacks etc. you know after the killing of his secretary general uh Iran didn't stop. I think there was like maybe 12 hours before they had their you know new people assigned to these roles and things moving. The Chinese want to learn from this. At least this is what our author who is a China specialist and a China Israel relations specialist based in Egypt has written. Um so so I think that's a that's a really important point seeing the system of development of warfare that it's always seems to now be preceded. Right. I I said the the blueprint for the Europeans, for the Americans, for the Israelis, that alliance is now one and the same. Uh so they're noticing those patterns. They also um you know are watching or examining things like the um structural weaknesses. So there's technological gaps for a country like Iran, right? So China can help fill those technological gaps. maybe the Russians, maybe other allies even um but they are digging deeper. What are the um structural weaknesses? You know, how were any Iranian facilities penetrated through technology and intelligence means? When you get that information because the blueprint is the same or the playbook is the same, you can be far more prepared. China can be far more prepared internally. Russia can be far more prepared internally. You know, at almost every level, the Americans are pushing together these three Eurasian powers to cooperate more and more. You know, they what aren't they cooperating now? I mean, we just had yesterday, was it yesterday, the Russian minister of I can't remember what, went and signed a whole bunch of deals with Iran. Guess what? Infrastructure. Um, the Russians developing Iranians gas fields. Like, next level, right? It's just pushing us closer and closer together. I don't know. I mean, I I I um advise everyone who's watching this to read the article. Um there's not a lot of facts in, you know, in China about this kind of thing. We're just not going to know. But the author, who like I said is a China expert, um did look at Chinese literature in regards to what was happening in Iran to piece together a story of how interested the Chinese have been in getting kneedeep in what happened in Iran and how foreign actors were able to do this to help Iran prepare for you know a future um breaches of security and also China. M yeah I mean the big story to me appears to be with all of this too whether it's from the naval drills to this kind of cooperation with Iran is you mentioned before infrastructure uh you know China it of course does not want to see its allies be uh you know taken taking a beating and being overthrown being destroyed by war but there's another side of this too where it's the reason why these countries are for and our allies with China is because they are willing to do some of the deepest cooperation. Iran has been called the key to West Asia and Europe and uh if Iran falls then a lot of China's belt and road initiative is actually in danger and it has been in danger for quite some time. I mean we know that uh a lot of these proxy forces the Beluchcci armed forces all of them they tend to go after uh in you know in Pakistan for example they go after belt and road uh projects they they blow them up they uh commit terror attacks on them and that also affects Chinese people because Chinese people do have to go to these countries do the advising do the training equipping and the labor. [snorts] >> Yeah. But you know um there's evidence that even the Israelis have seen that um some of their actions have um created reactions that were not just unforeseen but are very very dangerous for Israel. Um who was it? I think it was Bennett who was talking about this recently. He was talking about how Naft Ali Bennett, the former PM um of Israel, he was saying how I remember um that in fact we might see an Arab NATO converge, right? The Israelis and Americans always pushed the idea of an Arab NATO that would work with Israel, right, to basically combat Iran's influence in the region, right? But Bennett was saying there could in fact emerge an Arab NATO with nuclear Pakistan at its you know at its center and this would be very bad for us. Oh and um sorry under the opaces like led by Turkeykey's new aversion to Israel because Turkey is opportunistic. It swings both ways with Israel, but currently a Turkey's newer version of Israel, which would make a Turkish um Arab Pakistani uh configuration that will not have Iran in its sights, but will have Israel in its sights. And this is very real. And this kind of became possible because of the UAE and Israel. Um their close relationship showing their hands one after another, you know. Um the UAE basically took over Swaths of the south of Ye of Yemen went into Hadramot. like it was the first major kinetic military operation of that scale that happened since the sort of you know unannounced ceasefire in Yemen some years back. They went in and they took over the south of Yemen. The Saudis really woke up at that and um and then um shortly thereafter the the Israelis declared their recognition of Somaliand, right? A breakaway state that is recognized by no other countries in the world. And guess what? Somali land lies right across from the southern shores of Yemen. Okay? And is where the um why can't I the Babal Mandab is okay? Um this is a choke point uh which could stop the Saudis from moving uh their ships, their trade through the Suez Canal. A map would be good for something like this, but you know, maybe you can stick one up later. Um, I can send you one now if you like. >> Yeah, sure. >> Um, and and this kind of the the Saudi am sorry, Israeli Emirati cooperation in encircling Saudi Arabia just broke all the um, you know, any reservations the Saudis had any longer about acting decently in the face of of of um, you know, Yemen and Israeli aggressions. And basically the Saudis um went, you know, max on on on on the UAE, right? They went max on the UAE. They basically kicked the UAE out of I sent this on WhatsApp to you. You can choose whichever the maps. Um they went max on the UAE. They've tried to reverse all their gains, not just in Yemen, but in Sudan, throughout the Horn of Africa, in Somalia. You you actually have we'll have a piece on this on Friday I think um very very deep dive into Ethiopia's now so much happening Danny it's hard to c you know keep up but Ethiopia is now playing with the Amiratis and the and the Israelis okay to the chagrin of the Egyptians and other actors I mean there is hell breaking out there but the Saudis are going in a way that we haven't seen them go in such a long time they're a very conservative country in terms of foreign policy we saw a little deviation from that when Muhammad bin Salman became the crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, right? Where he just was a wild 31-year-old doing everything his heart desired. But he he pulled back from that and for a couple years now the Saudis have been steaming beyond um beneath the surface about the Emiratis. Okay? And now every single Arab country that could not make a peep about Israel because oh the Americans will be mad at us. Um is going full force against the Emirates um uh because of also in part because of Israel's desire to work with the Emirates to basically you know surround Saudi Arabia to to be able to trap them if you will you know maybe even break up Saudi Arabia maybe even kill Muhammad bin Salman. It's like what wouldn't they do, right? Um but here's the thing. What this did was it broke so it brought all three existing alliances in the region. The resistance axis, the Gatari Turkey sort of Muslim Brotherhood alliance and then the moderate Arab alliance, you know, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf plus Egypt plus uh plus Jordan brought them on the same side against the UAE. So instead of an Arab NATO, see you can see on this map you can see that the Saudis have you know they're so big Saudi Arabia that they're on the Persian Gulf and they're on the Red Sea, right? And but if the if the um Amiratis were be a were able with the Israelis to get all the string of ports along from the Persian Gulf all the way through the south of Yemen and Oman and then up through the Red Sea into Israel, right into Israel, not bypassing the Suez Canal that the Saudis um would just, you know, uh lose a lot of power projection and u so a lot is changing the Isra Israelis are now afraid this backlash will bring Arabs more in line with the Iranians and of course have made the Arabs like a country like Saudi Arabia basically um lobby against a US war against Iran. Qatar lobby against a US war against Iran. Turkey lobby against a US war in Iran because now the interests have shifted in this region. Am I making everything confusing because there's just >> No, no, >> so much more. >> No, no, no. I think um No. I think all these points are are really good to hit on because it does show a very complicated regional situation that I think impacts what happens here. I mean any US strike on Iran too. I mean all of these converging forces, these changing dynamics uh they will come into play and impact. I mean just alone an Iranian strike on Iran would have such an economic impact that it's there's no way that these shifting dynamics don't change dramatically very quickly. I think this is one thing history teaches us is that when a big monumental event happens that uh you know has reverberations across millions if not billions of people >> uh things tend to speed up and so my final question to you on this before because I do want to uh cover our last segment here. >> Uh what do you think is going to speed up here? because the straight of hormones alone is a choke point that could crash the entire uh US-led financial system. But um at the same time, it could even be bigger than that because that's not the only thing that will be impacted by a strike on Iran economically, let alone militarily. >> Yeah. I mean, you know, here's in a protracted war, both sides are going to be spending a lot of money. one side a lot more than the other, right? So Iran is in its backyard. It's in its waterways, right? It also makes things a lot faster and cheaper than the US military-industrial complex. I mean, basically, let's be honest, everybody um east of east of the Mediterranean makes things faster and cheaper than um you know, the US military-industrial complex. So there's there's a there's that kind of economic cost to the to the Americans. And Iran intends to make this a protracted war, which will mean just, you know, forget arms going to Ukraine, maybe even forget arms going to Israel. This is going to set um a lot of the old um military relationship, the dependencies that existed, right, on US weapons, etc., and European weapons is going to change that. Um, like I said earlier on, okay, let's see, say the Americans do all this, but then the new multipolar world just stops trading in the US dollar and all European currencies. What are these guys going to pay for their military stuff in? You know, where how are they going to wage wars? There's so much more that'll happen in a protracted war. So, yes, these countries will go broke running very expensive wars on their side, very far away from their territory, right, from the United States. Um they also risk cutting off now to to some in the west this isn't such a bad thing because you know the US doesn't buy Saudi oil hasn't for years does anyone know that they absolutely zero um but you know Europe still depends on that especially since the Russian pipelines have been cut you know um and uh but the Americans don't care about Europe the thing is the Americans will then um think okay well China gets so much of its oil, right, and gas resources from the Persian Gulf. We want to neuter the Chinese economy. This is one way to do it. So, let the Iranians shut this off. But, you know, there's so many other routes that the Chinese, Iranians, and Russians have been developing via land to help make up I mean, especially since the Russian special military operation got underway. I mean the relationship and energy sales between Russia and China you know grew very very quickly and you know in in great amounts. So all these things have been underway already. Um these countries are not going to fall apart because they can't get oil and gas from the um you know through the straight of Hormos. They have contingencies because they're planners. They're they're not only planners for what's happening now. they're planners for like 50 years before you know these are planning nations. Um whereas I don't think the Americans ever plan for even the day after. So I think a lot of surprises. Yes, this is going to impact the global economy. But you know I look at other things that are going to impact the global economy even if not a single missile is fired until way later on this year because I do believe there is going to be war. um you know and that is for instance you know the the the Chinese um have have now their treasury holdings of meaning US treasury right bonds um have declined to 7.3% it's the lowest like since 2000 >> right >> all right um which has basically meant in the last s sort of between 2000 and 2010 the Chinese halfed their exposure to US Treasury holdings. The Chinese government just bought a ton of gold in January. It is the 15th consecutive month in which the Chinese government is buying gold of this quantity in a regular manner. Now, you know, um basically China's shifting from treasuries to gold. Who isn't? I mean, if you look at a list of countries that are buying gold, I mean, Turkey, the UAE, Iran, China, there's a lot of countries that are aware of what's coming and they're hedging their bets in the smartest way possible because, you know, there's Trump, not Bitcoin, but you know what I mean? Like, there's all these constructs now that are going to replace fiat currency. It's not clear who the winners are, but gold is gold. you know, silver is silver. It's been around forever. You You're not going to get rid of it. And there's limited supplies as well. Um, so I think >> a war with Iran will just one of the things it'll do is I think crystallize the blocks. Okay. There are countries in Iran's um orbit that need Iran. I mean, even the Taliban have said, "We're with Iran on this." you know. Yeah, sure. >> If Israel gets involved, Pakistan is with Iran on this. Now, we don't know about the Pakistani >> chief of the army who like, you know, seems to be in Washington every weekend. We don't know about him, but his position isn't like forever either. And who knows, he may be ousted because the Pakistanis know that the Israelis are going to come for them after they get through with Iran. They have said this. The Israelis have said this, okay? which is why Pakistan stepped up behind the scenes but very quickly and very hard in the first few days of the June war they were not going to allow Iran to collapse so do you see the the new configurations that are coming up the interest that people have will Pakistan side with China will India India is a question mark but you know let Trump slap Modi one more time publicly and maybe Modi can't tolerate any more of this you know so I think a war will cryst crystallize the blocks even further. >> And we are moving into a place of um an era of um hemispheres or spheres of influence as the Europeans in Munich worried about. But it's not China's uh China and Russia and US's hemisphere. It is most likely going to be a much shrunk western sphere of influence and then the rest of the world. >> Mhm. And which explains Trump's massive resource and root grab. It explains why he's even talking about invading Canada or Greenland. They want resources. They want to secure routes or be able to block at least, you know, their adversaries. It's kind of crazy. So much is happening at so many levels. It's not just block the straightup hormones. If that happens, it'll trigger a whole bunch of other things. crystallizing blocks. Again, by the way, another reference for your your viewers is a very interesting article that I think was written by Fadil Lama, the cradle in 200 I want to say 2022 or 2021 maybe before before the Russians went to Ukraine where he talks about um he calls it uh the west's plan B securing the realm and in it he says the west is shrinking and so what it'll try to do is very aggressive ively go and snatch up resources and roots um strategic roots for itself um and that way it can thrive within its own you know little universe. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean it's not often talked about when Trump and all these players and I definitely want to get into Rubio's speech uh because Rubio's speech kind of says it but it doesn't of course the US is not in this uh uh development. And it's always the US is so strong and get with our program. But the the fact is that the US is actually its share of the global economy has been shrinking for decades. Its influence and economically especially which is the engine of empire uh shrinking and and getting smaller and smaller. And so a lot of the damage done militarily, a lot of the flailing about and you know just trying to waste, you know, lay waste to the world, a lot of that is to do exactly what you said is to get as get as quickly as possible uh influence and domination over as as far as as much of a share of the world as possible again to make up for these losses. But it's not doing it. And so I wanted to put up actually what Rubio said, just a few minutes of it because he gave a long long long speech, but it was uh it was I think very important. I know you wanted to uh uh mention it and talk about it. So, here's just a little bit of what he said at Munich that I think points to a bit of how we can see the United States, why the United States, despite Trump saying we don't want big wars in the Middle East, we don't want trillion dollar wars, why now we see a third of the US military arsenal, naval arsenal at least uh surrounding Iran. For five centuries before the end of the Second World War, the West had been expanding. Its missionaries, its pilgrims, its soldiers, its explorers pouring out from its shores to cross oceans, settle new continents, build vast empires extending out across the globe. But in 1945, for the first time since the age of Columbus, it was contracting. Europe was in ruins. Half of it lived behind an iron curtain and the rest looked like it would soon follow. The great Western empires had entered into terminal decline, accelerated by godless communist revolutions and by anti-colonial uprisings that would transform the world and drape the red hammer and sickle across vast swats of the map in the years to come. Against that backdrop, then as now, many came to believe that the West's age of dominance had come to an end, and that our future was destined to be a faint and feeble echo of our past. But together, our predecessors recognized that decline was a choice, and it was a choice they refused to make. This is what we did together once before and this is what President Trump and the United States want to do again now together with you. And this is why we do not want our allies to be weak because that makes us weaker. We want allies who can defend themselves so that no adversary will ever be tempted to test our collective strength. This is why we do not want our allies to be shackled by guilt and shame. We want allies who are proud of their culture and of their heritage, who understand that we are heirs to the same great and noble civilization, and who together with us are willing and able to defend it. And this is why we do not want allies to rationalize the broken status quo rather than reckon with what is what was what is necessary to fix it. for we in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West's managed decline. [sighs] >> So, an absolutely unhinged uh speech. That was the the big highlight from it. Char, >> you got a standing ovation. >> He got a standing ov which I'm not surprised about. People have to understand uh what Europe is. But at the end of the day, Charmaine, this is a very unhinged speech. It it demonstrates, I think, just outwardly what uh the United States Empire is. And honestly, when he was talking, I was thinking, well, what happened since 1945? Actually, the US empire has been in its own state of quote unquote managed uh decline. But nonetheless, Charine, what what is your reaction to this in relation to this massive war buildup uh that we're seeing toward Iran? Because I think there are a big connections here to make. But first, your your reactions, your thoughts. Well, you know, I I don't know if this will offend with some people, but this is basically, especially given the civilizational language he uses, the Christianity language, you know, the common common ethnicity. I I can't remember what Hold on. I'm just going to look up some of the key things. Um that that the you know, Europe and the US share the deepest bonds that nations could share. Christian faith, culture, history, ancestry, right? Again, civilization. And this is literally the Crusades 2.0 because first of all, he is ushering an age of, you know, let's go back to the old colonial days when things were so good with us when we were, you know, as one, we're just fighting each other over the loot, right, here and there, but we were thriving. Well, they can't do that because they're faking broke. I just don't know how to emphasize this. I mean, I was just looking at figures that they are now estimating that the US national debt will reach a record 64 trillion dollar in 10 years. All right. And I think that's way underestimated by the way because it it accounts it it expects a 2.4 trillion per year, you know, um surge, but actually that grows exponentially. It doesn't grow like at that amount. But something else I learned recently is the US currently has a $70 trillion private debt. Not national debt, but what companies owe, what households owe, that kind of debt. All right, that's more than twice already bigger than the US national debt. The Americans are broke. So let's look at the Crusades. All right. There were about, I think, seven or eight crusades, right? They wanted to civilize um this part of the world. Exactly this part of the world that we're talking about today. Exactly the part of the world that I'm sitting in today. They want to civilize us, right? Um and control our resources, of course. Uh what happened? Well, they lost. Okay, the reason they lost is because it was protracted. Another reason they lost is they ran out of funds. Another reason they lost was because of the distance, okay, the logistics, right? The um supply lines to keep up a war effort for that long. It's the same reason they're going to lose now, except they don't have the money to start off with. What are they doing with all this Christian past or Christian civilization? Christians I know here don't think that way at all. They think the Americans are lunatics. Most Europeans think Trump, you know, most Europeans, I mean, it's not just Trump, by the way, this goes back at least two decades, think that the US is the biggest national security threat to the world, to to their region, their countries. All right? We've seen poll after poll on this. Um, today, I mean, in the Munich Security Conference in their report, they said we have a big problem internally, and there are charts on that if you ever want to put them up. They they they they show how little the um the citizens of European countries have faith in their own governments. I mean, they're record low levels. Who's going to galvanize them? These guys can't stay in power. They have like, you know, they're all linked to the Epstein files. So, eventually they're all going to be unseated, you know, but um there's just so much corruption at the top. Governments in Europe are run by, you know, big corporations. Now, there's no real democracy. Um, the right-wing, you know, the anti-immigration thing, violence is growing. What on earth are they going to do? How are they going to do this? I I get it. Let's go back to our glory days. Let's build those again. The conditions do not exist now. They did then. We have missile arsenals now. We have nukes now. Okay? I mean, like the other world, right? the new block, the multipolar block. The block by the way that believes in win-win solutions to all our global problems, not zero sum, which is what the west believes. Someone has to lose, we have to win. So, I think, you know, there's I I just don't see how this can be a winning um whatever Marco Rubio says, however many standing ovations he says, he's talking to um people who already think like him. You know, that's not how the the you know, the majority of Europeans think. They want their economy back. They do not want more war. They do not want more spending on their militaries. They don't even they don't see a way out except by, you know, unseeding their governments, but they don't have um uncontrolled opposition either. You know, it's it's going to be very hard times ahead for for the Western Hemisphere as well as the rest of this world, you know. >> Right. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean I I think one of the big lessons from that speech Charmin is that I mean what we are seeing is because the rest of the world we could call it as as you said the global south the the emerging multipolar world um because that is moving in a much more independent direction. Now uh this was very predictable. I mean the formation of the EU itself should have been a prediction toward the US was eventually going to squeeze Europe and treat Europe how it treats everybody else which is not as just junior partners but as um you know uh something to suck everything out of which is what is actually happening and I always want to pull up the the conditions are indeed uh much different uh Charmaine in terms of how Europeans look at how the west looks at the political situation even just in their own countries. I mean look at these low satisfaction levels across the board. 11% approval from Mcronone 23% if that anymore for Olaf Schultz. Not sure where these dates are. Dissatisfaction with Kier Starmer up to 61% it might be more uh now uh we can go on and on and on from uh Italy um approval rating 35 36% for uh uh Maloney. I mean oh see this is what always happens. Let me just do something here. Remove that. >> And she was supposed to be the opposition. You know, she was supposed to be like bring in a new way of thinking and be more I I just don't know. I you know I always say like the problem with the west and this is what happens with all civilizations like not civilizations I guess like empires right um they do really well stealing off right stealing from others and killing others and then so they thrive for a generation and then complacency lethargy you know the younger generation just expects this kind of like it's what's you know it's the the the west has been fattened in the sense that they can't move anymore. They they're hung up on their trajectories of everything. The way they do economic policy, the way they do political policies, the way they do u military policies, it's like a trajectory they don't know how to get off because there are too many vested interests, right? That are outside of governance now. And um I I don't see I've always said that we we need to have crash and burn for Western countries to start thriving again. And I think we recognize I mean certainly some European politicians are saying that. People are saying that now you know we we're just going to need to crash entirely and build from scratch because there's no fixing these endemic problems with a band-aid anymore, you know. So I I I mean I don't know who Rubio's preaching to. I mean white Christians obviously, >> right? >> Um who who miss Oh god. In England it's there's this type of person in in in government who just looks like they're from another era. They only know Britain's great military past, you know, and they salute the queen or the king now. They It's just It's insane. like they're completely lost in the past and these people are lost in the past. >> Um they want they want a great past again. Who wouldn't, right? But they just don't have the conditions anywhere anywhere anywhere across the board. So they will they will try to do it and they will try to do it um as demolition man. >> Yeah. Right. >> Yeah. No, burn everything. I mean the the the term I've heard especially with the UK is like empire nostalgia. Uh I think it even goes uh further than this. I mean we saw Rubio there Charmaine literally when he was saying don't be ashamed of cultural heritage it was quite clear that he was what he was talking about was the era of fascism in Europe because the era of fascism in Europe literally occurred during this period that he is talking about was such a better period preWorld War II like this is this is how depraved someone like Rubio is and I think it really shows the true colors of where the US political class is going at the behest of what these vested interests are seeing ahead of them. I think they really do. People think, oh, the bombings, fall of Syria, the genocide in Gaza, they see these, you know, kidnapping Maduro. People see this and they say, wow, the US empire can still cause all this destruction. But they what is often missed is that that destruction does not signal necessarily strength if the results of it still remain that the US uh economic system is on the decline that it's shrinking that the share of global GDP and all of this is going down that uh there's no wars that are actually being won there's no uh expansion of any kind of anything whether it's uh economic or even military doas there's no expansion of that either It's it's everything is on the on going the opposite direction and what we are seeing I think is just a violent uh uh lashing out at that reality which uh I think the Epstein situation also shows this as well. I mean I I see it all within that framework of I mean these people are very desperate. They're very depraved and they want to reverse the situation as fast as possible. They don't they don't know how other than the means of which they've been utilizing for the period that Rubio was going over. Anyway, back to you Sherman. >> Yeah, but you know the Epstein thing like we're so diverted I mean rightfully to a certain extent by the sex trafficking sc you know part of the scandal but really what the scandal is is um how many of the elite that are not just running America but running the world. Okay? Because Epstein was in the UAE, Epstein was in Africa, Epstein was everywhere, you know, cutting deals. Um, he that network was growing and in order to secure the network, they needed to they tried to um uh have its members be compromised because that's how you can trust them. If they're as compromised as you are, they're not going to be a whistleblower, right? So, there was a process of growing this network, this elite money network. It was capital. It's a capital network. Really, that's what they live for. Not having sex with underage girls. Not all of them do that, but all of them have skeletons in their closet. They may have embezzled. They may have whatever. They try to compromise people who can um, you know, stick in with this network for the long haul. And this network is global. It is in every country in the world right now. And it is making decisions about where what kind of currency we'll be using in the future in everything respect really. But back to what you were saying about the Nazis. I mean look at who the uh the West have supported in recent wars, right? Ukrainian fascists, right? Who are who are shuttering or burning churches by the way, right? um Israeli fascists who spit on priests. Okay, so their Christianity means this. No, it doesn't. You're you're they they're destroying the meaning of Christianity. These people like Rubio, these people in politics, you know, in Argentina and other places that they brought like their right-wing fascist pals. And then just go back to I think it was last year there was I don't know Danny if you remember the was a UN General Assembly resolution against Nazism >> and every single Western country including the US and Israel voted against it. That's it. >> Yep. >> How can you be against it? So you know what? But I'm I'm not as worried. I mean, I know Americans have woken up since Gaza and then these Epstein, you know, disclosures have made that even more intense. Um, I I I've never seen so many people awake in the West. I mean, regular civilians, of course, they don't have the means to organize quite yet, and may maybe they'll never have it. I don't know. But I think it's going to get very heated there. I don't think especially as economies crumble because of wars elsewhere, right? It's going to get worse and worse. And I don't, you know, we just have to tread water here in this region. um hope not to get bombed and wait for this to pass because they they are on a there's there's no stopping the downward spiral of the western economy and um ability to project power um and even currencies >> because there's you know why because there's an efficient there are efficient actors with a vision on the other side you know for so long it was like the USSR versus you know um the west. Um but now you have something much bigger than that. You have um civilizational states uh that want to focus on development and economy and trade and not wars. Um they all they're all planners. They've come together in various fora not just the BRICS plus but also the SEO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or the Eurasia Economic Union uh which now Iran is a part of. So they're going to be trading with, you know, Iran despite sanctions. So all these things now ex Oh, and then all these um right currency platforms, these um payment platforms that are emerging. There's so much more there than there was when it was just the USSR. Do you know what? There's so much more happening. >> Totally. >> So I I think I think we can get diverted by all this talk. It seems >> they need to be kinetic. Like I said at the beginning, they need to be kinetic in order >> to make their enemies afraid, in order to have their voices in people's heads all day long, right? Um but actually they don't have much to show for it except a lot of threats and bluster. >> Yeah. And the other side is substantive. It's building roots. It's building railways. It's building pipelines. It's building infrastructure. It's creating social programs. you know, it's opening its borders with neighbors instead of like closing them. You know, there's so much going on the other side. >> Yeah. And I think what we're finding too is that uh as we've seen, we've had a very calamitous 2026 already. Uh Venezuela, Iran, all of this going on. um as we've you know witnessed these things I think uh what is often missed is that uh you have two of these three countries Russia, China and Iran which you can see as pillars of this new world order that is uh emerging if not already here they have nuclear weapons and these two countries especially Russia and China you it's unless they internally collapse which uh I'm not a Russia expert but with China I do not see that anytime soon if ever Um it's really difficult. You can't you can't there's no there's no victory in nuclear war and it's very difficult to wage that with any kind of u success regarding keeping your own position aka the United States. So with that really it seems like what the US is trying to do is lean heavily on anyone they can to squeeze suffocate and destroy them uh in the hopes that that will then destroy their big adversaries to the east. Now I see a big weakness here Charmaine especially a reliance even on in your region on Israel. I don't know if you heard what um Lindsey Graham said, and these are just words again, but when he says something like this, I'll just pull it up. I I tend to believe him that actually the US leans so heavily on Israel that these wars of the future as he called them are being planned there, especially in this region. And that is, I think, uh also potentially a fatal weakness. Here is uh here's Lindsey Graham. >> US military. >> Yeah, we talked about that. >> You've spoken about a quicker time. Well, I I think what his plan is to replace the money of 3 point something billion with an investment in new technology rather than just writing you a check, you know, help the IDF. He wants to create a partnership outside of the the the aid number. I like that idea. The wars of the future are being planned here in Israel because >> so wars of the future here in Israel. I mean that's but that's how heavily the US is reliant upon Israel to project its interests. Your your comments. >> Well, you know, it's more because Israel's showing has shown us that it has zero morality in warfare. Zero. Zero. Less than zero things that >> Americans wouldn't consider. American special forces or CIA people wouldn't consider. So, and Israel's um you know underpinned its um its whole ability to or you know its target banks right by technology which is vastly wrong vastly wrong because otherwise so many civilians would have been killed in Gaza but you know their tracking technology has been exceptionally good but you know is Chinese tracking technology like any worse I I don't know that I think the issue is that Israel's willing to use it for these nefarious purposes. And the Americans are ready. What What did What did Rubio say? Like, we have to stop being polite, right, with our adversaries. >> That's politeness. That's politeness. Oh my god. Right. So, the Israelis are beyond there's no behavior, right? There there's anything. We're, you know, taking organs out of um dead Palestinians. I It's just just skin. They have the biggest skin bank in the world. Where do you think that skin comes from? It's vile. It's beyond vile. >> It is vile. It is vile. >> Yeah. Yeah. And by the way, nothing I'm saying here hasn't been written about in English in the Israeli press, by the way. Okay. Totally. So, here here's the thing. Like, of course, Israel should be the lab for this stuff. Of course, if I was the Americans, I wanted to bypass >> rules and regulations. That's where I'd have it. And by the way, that makes Israel a target now for the Chinese, for the Russians who will play it cool, but they will have their eye on Israel more than any other country. >> Totally. >> I I I I just everything these guys do eventually boomerangs around. I I don't know. Um Lindsey Graham, I don't know. I I never see him outside of a meme framework here in West Asia, so I keep forgetting he's a real person. And he he's also rarely outside of Israel. I mean, he he basically is he's basically a dual resident at this point. I mean, he live he's there. >> Yeah. >> Doesn't he say every two weeks? I think he said, "I'm there every two weeks," which is insane. You know, >> it's almost like him and Netanyahu do like a reversal. Netanyahu is always in Washington. He's >> I mean, not only should he have citizenship of Israel, but you know, um voters in his district or state should vote him out. >> Elections are coming up. You know, I I know Americans are starting to hate this kind of statement. I don't know how much of a bubble people like Graham and Rubio and others are in not to see that. like actually now anti-ionists and those critical of Israel um like we saw with um Mamdani right uh and we may see with Massie Thomas Massie right in his election upcoming election um are fairing really well right people want to flip that Apac money um you know and and and and keep candidates who are willing to stand up to so so let's see but Lindsey Graham's statements ments about Israel are just I mean he was he was telling the Saudis off. I don't know if you you heard that. He was telling the Saudis off. >> Cut it out. That's what he said. Cut it out. >> Cut it out. Stop picking on the UAE. You know, >> they're not Zionist. He seems that they're not Zionists. Which was hilarious to me. Like you're you're a Zionist. You care. You you proudly claim yourself to be a Zionist. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um, you know, I I often say like um instead of trying to shut down the cradle's voice, you know, deplatform us from meta for instance, things like that, American policy makers should read the cradle because we actually talk to these other sides, right? Uh the problem, and I've lived in Washington for a long time. I know that what gets transferred over via English language media is very um you know is kind of a fantasy of what's happening here in this region. If you understood the the resistance groups in this country and the the resistant civilians of this region, you would you would understand that it's not going to be such as an easy a ride as you think it is. You know, you wouldn't say such dumb things. you'd realize like you become a caricature. Like I said, I've not seen Lindsey Graham out outside of a meme post in such a long time. I I forget that he's real. So, um what can I say that, you know, that this Trump administration, you know, I still have hopes that don't look at me like I'm crazy, but I still believe that Trump and Netanyahu will come to blows. You just have two, you know, narcissistic egoogmaniacs who at some point it's become clear um in the last six months at least that there is a louder than ever element in MAGA that is anti-Israel. And that is the MAGA element that is dominating. It's dominating the discourse among MAGA people. It's on all the podcasts. they're the ones getting the views. So, at some point, you know, especially if Trump fails in the Iran war, you know, he's going to have to answer to MAGA and maybe like uh, you know, go headto-head with Netanyahu. So, here's hoping. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, there it does matter as the image wise, right? Public image, how the United States as an empire looks on the world stage does matter. And uh I don't know if it'll happen in this Trump administration, but there will likely be a reckoning where, you know, uh Israel's core desperate demands to have as big of wars as possible to achieve its own goals starts to clash with the US's need to >> not drive itself into a mass casualty war. I mean, that's eventually going to happen. I don't know if it's going to happen with this wrong war situation, but it's it's possible. And that is, I think, uh, uh, where we might see that clash actually materialize rather than just hearing, you know, Trump yelled at Netanyahu over the phone. Uh, you know, things like that. >> You know, Danny, I just want to say something before we finish is um, your viewers should just Google drisking from the US. This is something I'm hearing. I mean, no, Reuters writes about this. Bloomberg writes about this in quarterly analysis from banks. They are sending drisking from the US analysis. Okay. Um to their clients. There is a real trend taking place um that maybe seems like it's moving slower than the Trump administration, but like I said, so much is bluster from Trump. Um I think the isolation of the US and the isolation of Israel is already there to a great extent with more to come because you know what's funny even though these two countries are bypassing international law and even domestic law to do what they want wherever they want um law still exists on the books and you can still beat these two monsters through lawfare. We are seeing cases being brought in European courts and they have to operate on the basis of existing law and so there are plenty of opportunities to further isolate these countries. I think lawfare is another dimension that I think the the west won't see coming their way because um other states are getting really smart about how to use that in the west. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a great place to leave off of Charmaine. We'll definitely need to have you back on as things develop very soon. Uh I wanted to make sure people knew before we got off that the cradle uh the link to it is in the video description and you can support the cradle uh subscribe to the cradle um also in the video description. All the places support this work um as well. But Charmaine, anything you want to specifically say about the cradle? Um, no, read it because honestly it opens my eyes. It does. It does because I I don't, you know, we have analysis, investigations, and interviews, but then we have news all day as well that is specific to West Asian geopolitics. So, you'll see a lot about this region that you won't see in English anywhere else. >> Um, and I I uh, you know, get busy with a lot of things, you know, overseeing things and I catch articles and I'm like, "No way. I didn't know this. So, just read it. >> Yeah. Great. Link is in the video description, everyone. Uh you can of course support uh them and support this channel uh in the video description, too. Patreon, Substack, and much more. Without further ado, I'm going to be back tomorrow morning early with Alistair Kirk, mutual friend of ours, actually. So, uh 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. Be sure to be there. February 19th. Without further ado, everybody, we're going to head out together. Take care. It was a great show and see you next time. Bye.