Raw Transcript
Well, it happened. We didn't want to be right, but here we are. Let's get to it. It happened both here with what we're seeing on the S&P and it happened with the NDX2. And we've been talking about this in the breath of the market. We're going to have to get into it. You can see it right here as well. And it's not as pronounced, but once you click right there, you can you can't miss it. Now, this one again, it's just not as pronounced, but it's definitely there. We definitely have to get into these names, too. Yo, I and why these other names like light are just really getting decimated. The research report that came out tonight or actually came out this morning on it. But even the names that research report wanted you to get involved with, they got absolutely decimated as well and why crack is on fire when we take a look at that and we're going to discuss that in great detail. Got a lot to do. Short time to do it. Let's get to it. Remember when all we had to do was worry about this guy? Not anymore. 27.5% of you do not subscribe to this channel. Yet, you watch all the videos at least 30 days on average about 67% of the time. It's crazy what YouTube can give you in analytics. Anyway, subscribe, all notifications. What we go over here is extremely timely and actionable, including the dumpster fire floating down the river tonight. That is Adobe. Let's do it. Crack. So, what is this? Why do you care? It is the spread between gas and oil. And that differentiation is what the refiners make. So this is breaking out. And I just want to grab it. Why? Because it's on my screen and we might as well hit it while it's here. And we could just see the level, right? The absolute breakout, the pullback, the breakout, the pullback, and what this is doing. And I do have it on pre and post. And I wanted to show that for a reason because that's what you're doing after hours. It's pure madness really with the headlines. But the headlines have come to I I would say an abatement and now it's going to be where's the beef, right? You guys don't remember those Wendy's commercials. That's what it's going to be. It's going to be show me that there's actually a deal here where we're going to stop this war now or conflict or excursion or I don't care if you call it a blueberry. Just figure it out, man. So, if we can start seeing how we're acting in here, we can see these breakout of PSX and we go and take a look at these levels. These are the names that are in there. VLOO as well as MPC. And these are the names that you're most likely going to want to pay attention to. There's a whole other subset of names that you're going to want to pay attention to as well. And I might as well go through those now and then we're going to dive into it and the one big graph that you're going to want to watch. And I will drop it in here, but you could follow me on Trading View as well. It's the same name, but I'll drop it in for you guys that have it. Then you can just save it. I'll put it in the instead of the weight list, the description for the weight list. I'll put it I'll pin it, I think, as a comment so you can grab it or I'll put it in the description. Just look for it. But I'll post that in a minute. But NPC, these names, the other names you really have to look for, guys, and be aware of these things are absolute disasters. Anything that is a tanker right now, you have to think about it. What do you have going for you as a tanker, right? First off, they're bombing you as a tanker. So that's bad. That would go in the negative comment. When they're throwing things at your tanker, you can't get insurance on your tankers. You don't have an escort. Your main route is shut down. So, like if you were looking for the definition of a short, you're staring at them. Now, everyone thinks, "Oh, but when it comes back, the problem with when it comes back is you're expecting the oil futures market to look like this and have a curve." And that curve that you're expecting is this. you're expecting, oh well, if this is, we'll just take this date here. If it's January, oil is going to be $58. And I'm just giving you an example. And then when it's January 30th, it's going to be $68. And again, just examples, but that's not what's happening. What's happening is the curve is inverted. So when the curve gets inverted like this from January, you're like, "Oh, it's $80, so it should be 90 here." No, it's going to be 70 because this is going to abate or they're going to find another way around it and that means less. So wait a minute, I'm going to put it on a boat and it's going to lose value as it travels. This is called backwardation, right? Or an inverted yield curve, right? And you could see how that's an inverted yield curve versus a right just regular old whoop who got a little nuts there. Got a little aggressive versus just a regular yield curve, right? You see the difference between that yield curve and you see the difference between when someone says inverted yield curve. Yay learning. So right now when you have an inverted yield curve, they don't want to watch. They don't want stuff on their tankers, man. They don't really want to do it. So this puts these companies at great risk, including the bombing, you don't have insurance, your main route shut down, right? Just besides those things. So these are basically dumpster fires floating down the river or you know, I mean almost literally. I would watch all of these because I think they have a lot lower to go. I think FRO, TNK, all these names. I think they're absolute disasters. These were my easiest trades today. I actually came in long these names thinking they were going to get ahead of it. This was about a week ago and we out here overnight actually in like the 20s. It's crazy. But, you know, if you can have access to the overnight markets and it's worth it. I can't say enough about it. Even last night I got was getting out of some USO at I think it was like 17 and change and I came in today it was 13 bucks. Why is oil up? And let's just get to this. I'm just going to tell you what it is because we have so much to go over and I want to compact this so that it is valuable and actionable in a timely manner. Goldman upgraded their price target on oil for the first quarter up to 90 for the first quarter. We're in March just so you understand that. That's how big they think this gets. They think that you could stay where you at you are with the amount of A that you have going on and actually see a 150 print. Just think about that. You don't even need them to get all nuts and you could still see a 150 print. And we're down here at 96. They're talking about an average. And I I saying it over and over again so that you guys understand it's an average. It's not saying that that's where you're going to close. It's absolutely insane to where we are to where we were told in here. Don't worry, we're going to end it soon. Well, it takes two to tango and if one side doesn't want to end it, really doesn't matter what you want. So, I do think that if we slow down, meaning we, the US, slows down, that yeah, I do think it'll be a good thing. But I think too much damage has been done on the other side. And now with what we're seeing energy start to recoup and actually break out and we're seeing Exxon all of a sudden start to like point up. CVX starting to rally and that looks like it's getting ready to break out. Crazy back here when we thought Venezuela was going to be the big news right to where we are now. Absolutely insane. You want to see something crazy? This never gave you a reason. You never really had a reason to ever get out of this trade from 26 to March. Just absolutely amazing. s such a simple trade. Not one close under that 22. Not one. Just straight up. And here we are. You know, somebody thought that was going to happen down here. But this is what it's leading to. And then you start looking at the PBRs of the world and they're starting to rally the ECs of the world. Obviously, they're breaking out because we're going to try to figure out where else we can get oil. But the tankers to me are they have a lot of issues. So what starts to happen in markets like this is really very simple. They sell everything. So I'm going to show you this chart. And again, you know, I'll fix let me fix this real quick. All you have to do is go to this and we don't want percentages. We want the actual number. And then we'll click here and go spy breath. And what I'm going to do is just remember to go copy link. Yay. And then I'll remember hopefully and I'll drop it in there for you guys so you can just grab it if you want. But I have it all set up. So, it's kind of perfect to just grab it and share it at the close. I'm do at the time of doing this, I'm doing it before they closed. But what I was pointing out yesterday and if I just go to this, you can see it the the rounding of what you're dealing with. And this new close, we didn't really want to see it, but here we are. So, we have a new 2026 low close. You're sloping perfectly down. It rounding it doesn't really get any clearer of a round. And now you have zero leadership. We talked about how important leadership was. And how much leadership do you have now? None. So here's the 200, the 50, the 20, and the five. What should be troubling is the five is bouncing and the others are pointing down. There are two things that we really don't want. And well, there's three and I'll show you them in order of what we don't want. So here's the 20-day percentage of stocks above a 20-day. There is a level that once you break, it's like right here. It's 25 or 26 like right in there. Once you break that level, the probability of going to this level, you can see it. It's pretty staggering. You bounce for whatever reason. When 75% of the names break that 20-day moving average, you either bounce or it gets significantly worse. And you can see how it got significantly worse. And it really wasn't as bad as we thought. Stayed and then ripped right back over that level. and then here got significantly worse and that was it. So you're either two schools of thought here. We either bounce here or it gets significantly worse on the 20-day. I'm of the school that when I look at this that you'd have to look at well what times do the 50-day give you any clarity on this. So if we go and take a look at this and drop it at the 50-day and we drop this at 50 when let's drop that down to 50 and you can see where I'm going with this hopefully. How many times were we below the 50 on the 50-day when it broke there? Okay. Well, there's once and we were below the 50 on the 50-day. 50% were under. Here's another and it broke. Okay. So, there's two and it broke. All right. So, then we go here and say, okay, there's three, four, five, and you were already under. So, it's safe to say every single time that it broke and went lower, we were below the 50-day. So, the probability of this breaking, and that's all you have are probabilities. The probability of this breaking with us being below the 50 here is pretty good, which means that you're probably going lower, which means that you're probably going to like 650 is at a minimum. Now, on top of that, we have this sucks salad, which is the fact that we're about to break 50 on the 200 day. Meaning more than 200 on the 200 day, more than half are going to be below that average. Now, I don't care about the 46 as much. I care about 50. So, we're going to go drop it on 50. And just so we're clear, if we're below 50, what tends to happen? It takes a while for it to turn, doesn't it? So when it happens, understand that this doesn't take a day. And we'll get more into this on Saturday. This could take a couple months. This is a good thing. If you have a if you have a watch list, you do not want to break it. But if you do and you look back at history, they were huge buying opportunities. So really the plan here for me and how I look at the world is I want to be as defensive as possible into this and then I want to get really dive into that. You know what I'll do? I'll set this up on Saturday. I'll make sure I have these links on Saturday because there's another link that I want to give you guys. I want to do this one too. S5FI because I'm sitting there thinking about it. NDFI cuz take a look at this. You're falling off a cliff. And when you're falling down like this, it usually means you're setting up for a sharp, like a really sharp bounce. So, we really want to watch this because the S&P and the NASDAQ, like the S&P is dropping and the NASDAQ is dropping. So, when you go look at NDFI here, watch. So, when you go look at NDFI, what you're seeing is that's actually starting to hold a little bit better, right? Like you're not breaking down as much. you're actually on a percentage basis. You're losing more on the other side of it on the 50-day than you are here, if that makes sense. So, the NASDAQ is doing better on the 50-day than you're doing here. And I think that on a percentage basis move here. So, I'll show you what I mean because I think I confused everybody. So, what I mean by even though you're at a 38 here and it's worse, the drop here is way more precipitous than it is on the NASDAQ. And that's because you've already gotten shaken out of the NASDAQ names. So that's already happened except for like that last few that you had to get out of today. If you look at the NDX, you came right to that level and you have a new NQ futures low, right? If you go to the NDX on this and you look at your level, you're right there and you have a new closing low on the 26, 2026 closing low. That's not great. That's definitely something that you want to pay attention to. Now, here's where it gets nuts. So Catrini, who everybody loved and sold the market, came up with a new piece today and that piece was about a AAOI and how that may have seen its best days and Sienna, all these names, right? So it didn't trash them, so to speak, but it said, "Hey, you might not want to be in these names anymore, the light and all these. You might want to be in the next batch, and these are the new hot names." and HM IMX. And we went through them all today. We went through them all for everybody today. And man, these things were ripping this morning. Absolutely unequivocally ripping up $13. We caught them. I actually caught some of them even pre-market trading them. Did exceptionally well with these names. And then all of a sudden, what happens? They just got completely matumboed and rolled right over. When you start to see this kind of behavior, we're just exit liquidity. This should not happen in a hot market. It should not happen in a hot market. It should not happen in a trending market. When you see this, you are exit liquidity and you have to be very cognizant of that. So, where's your leading sector right now? Because it's not XLI anymore. And I just want to just point this out and I'm not doom and gloom. I'm just the facts. It's just easier. So, here's XLI. We closed below the 55. Here's XLF. You're a dumpster fire. So you don't have financials. You no longer have industrials, right? You have 20% of global supply of energy being choked off. And to wrap that all in a nice taco, take a look at this. BLK. All right. So why is that breaking down? Because JP Morgan is cutting their exposure to private credit. That was the statement today. So these investment banks statements that people think they don't have to pay attention to, you have to pay attention to them. So whether it's you find out this stuff here or you find it out through somebody else, make sure you have a service or somebody you actually listen to that actually reads what's going on in the street because the two pieces of news that really moved the market today wasn't really Catrini and Twitter. Even though I did think that was going to move us, it was really what Goldman said about oil raising it that skyrocketed oil today and it skyrocketed the crack names. But most importantly, it was also JP Morgan saying we are completely cutting our exposure to private credit. So they are cutting their exposure to BLK's kind of the private credit side of the market. BX and AL is probably going to be, you know, I'm not going to say an L, but it's in a lot of trouble. You're in a lot of trouble here. So please keep that in mind going forward. I do want to say something. I did a trade after hours. We did it in the community. you are bobbing and weaving and you are in an environment here and this is going to be a great topic and I really do want to do more educational long- form videos if you could put down below in the comments because I think there's a time that people don't understand when they're supposed to trade certain ways like there's a time when you're just out there and you're bobbing and weaving and then there's a time where you're trying to like stay in the trend and I think that'd be a great way to go about it but tonight like this was a super easy short for me and I'll let me show you it so that you can see it. But by the way, CEO quit here. That's always a good sign. So, let me just grab this real quick. You're going to have to listen to me talk here for a second and just figuring this out. Hold on. I'm going to use those internets. Just one second. It's going to happen. If nothing, you're entertained. You're like, "My god, doesn't he know how to use the internet yet?" But let me just grab this thing because then you don't want to watch me do it another way. There it is. And we're going to go over here. And yep, that's two minutes of your life you can't get back. All right, here we go. So, here's the time stamp so you can say it. And I'm just talking about Alta. The comps were bad. They were really bad. They weren't supposed to be that bad. Adobe was good and raised maybe its margins. And then I read what it was. So the EPS guide, this is what you have to look for. Why is it dropping? Because the EPS guide was so big you could drive a truck through it. They're like, "Oh, we're going to earn 7 cents or we're going to earn 27 cents." So I come out and say it's margins because the revenue guide was good. RBK was good. As soon as I see CEOs out. So, if you go and take a look here over on these bars, you're going to see right there, that's the nine bar, right? So, you see it 7 8 9. So, by the time I can get it out, all I'm doing is trying to get out into this bar. Now, normally you don't short in here. You wait to see if you're going to break. But the minute that I saw the CEO, I'm like, I I'm out. I got to get in or I got to short this thing. So, I short it. And then all I'm doing the whole way down is I'm just scalping out of it. So my cost on this and I scale out of this. So I'm going to just walk you through this. I want >> hours. >> All right. Well, now you got that going for you, too. So as I'm scaling out of it, I want to explain this. So I'm my cost is 262 on this. By the time I'm out, it's like 253. So even though on some of these I'm pulling out money like down here, pulling out like 12 or 15 bucks. Actually it was like 12. the whole trade's not being pulled out at 12. The whole trade averages out to like seven and a half by the whole by the time I'm done. So, you always have to think about that and we should get into that so people understand, you know, you're not making the whole thing. You're scaling out into it in case it goes up because you want the positive slippage. This is not now, Larry. Not that you don't want to do these trades. You do want to do them, but there's a time and a place. And the other one I'll just go through is Alta. That's obviously a dumpster fire tonight. Look, here's where I'm going to leave this. When this starts to happen and you start to crack like this, you don't want to tell the market that it doesn't know what it's doing. You don't know what you're doing, right? Just stay out of the way. Let it all burn. And then when it's done, we go through the ashes and we pick out the pieces that we want. That's it.