Raw Transcript
What I want to go through is this piece with Morgan Stanley. I think they did an excellent job of just really nailing this. So, it's short, sweet, and to the point, but they bring up 2020. Now, in 2020, none of us ever thought oil could possibly get to negative, but yet it did. 20 million barrels a day of demand vanished overnight. Prices just fall. They went negative. This week, we are staring at a shock, but with the signs flipped. And I want to just be real clear on this. Morgan Stanley is comparing what's happening now to the inverse of what happened five and a half years ago, almost six years ago. This week we were staring at a shock comparable size. The straight, which is roughly 20 bill uh millions per barrel a day, numbers are just so staggering to me. Refined uh normally flows have been effectively closed since last week. Despite what you're hearing, it's closed. And there's a chart on it here that we'll get to. Duration may prove far shorter than COVID. The duration may prove far shorter than co but the initial mitigation impacts similar. The world is suddenly short volume in normal times with dwarf any supply. We don't know how long this lasts. We're going on these assumptions that this is days. I don't know that there's a broader point here. The last few years have been a steady exercise in market humility. Oil can't go negative. Russia will always be reliable to Europe. Uh the straight will always be too important to actually stop until it stopped. The headline itself at the speed and the stress is really what's showing up in the supply chain. So I want to just show how fast it's happening and I thought this did a great job of it. Asia is most at risk. Asia refiners among the most exposed to barrels that originate behind the straight. Science suggests some slowing operations as crude tightens. Refineries run less produ produce less or tighten gets tight tighter. But jet fuel there's a great example of like why people are asking me like why am I shorting airlines or why would I still short airlines here at jet fuel just take a look at what's happening on the jet fuel market here. Jet market is now rationing through price. The jet market, it's been a week. The jet market is now rationing through price. Earlier this week, jet fuel in Singapore reached 200 a barrel from 90 before the conflict started again. It's been a week. Now, when we look at this and you're like, well, I think it's been more than a week. Okay. Well, here's March 1st and this is a week. So, when you're looking at the straight and what's happened, number of daily transits in and out of the Middle East. Now, some of these numbers that are starting to be reported, uh, they're coming out and saying, "Well, they might just be China ships that were allowed to pass." But this is where a 10 is. So, what does that mean? You're getting a ship through. Maybe if it's got the right flag on it, maybe this does not work. Instead of just going through more data, I just want to point this out. If you stay here, you're looking at anywhere between 130 to 150 a barrel. And and only if you stay here for a couple weeks. If this got fixed immediately, you're still looking at probably 90 on average. And that's the new normal right now. So, as we go through this today, we need to understand that. Now, continued to fall out from the AI software disruption. There's just one line in here that I I really want to go over. Insurance companies, especially lifers, have moved wider on fears of exposure to private credit. We view their actual risk as more moderate and believe fundamentals do not warrant a sharp replaceing of the sector. But what you think and what's happening are two different things. And I want to post that because this is going to become really important when we start talking about private credit and we start looking at some of these charts and what's going on in a little bit here. Now, how is Europe doing on the high yield dispersion versus investment grade Europe versus the US? Well, this is what's going on in Europe. So, Europe's high yield market is really kind of getting out of hand on the higher end, meaning from from a risk perspective, way faster than anything in the US. While the US has some issues, it's nowhere near what we thought. And this is really, I thought, a really interesting piece. And this was from Deutsch Bank. Surging crack spreads. Crack spreads are the difference between what you're going to charge for gas and where oil currently is. So where oil is or where gas currently is, that spread between the oil and gas spread, it's called the crack spread. Hostilities in the Middle East are driving oil prices and more specifically crack spreads in some of the highest levels seen in decades. Again, I don't think a lot of people are getting just how fast this is. So, it's not even that it's up, it's the velocity in which it's up. Year-to- date, oil prices are up 50% while jet fuel prices are up 100% to 125%. This is one of the reasons why I'm shorting airlines. Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircrafts. Why some of the industry's financial weakest carriers could halt operations. So, I'm just going to say that again. Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft. While some of the industry's financial weakness could halt operations, US jet crack spreads. The difference between underlying oil prices and jet fuel prices for GF Coast New York Hob now range from 85 to 95 a barrel, a level that is at or above the underlying feed stock. WTI oil price currently trading at 864, print 889. The last time we witnessed this phenomenon was 2005 when the crack spread was as high as 65 a barrel exceeding 60 in the aftermath of Katrina and Rita. Significant widespread including major airlines Delta and Northwest filing chapter 11 bankruptcy. So this is the situation we're in and these things are trading like they don't have a care in the world. Everyone's just expecting this to go back to normal and that's really kind of scary. And what they're doing here is they're just showing the c the crack spreads in the US have soared to record levels and you have to go back 20 years to find something. And during that time you had some of these airlines go into bankruptcy. But this time it's different, right? Okay. So what we want to do is just look at what's happening, not judge it. And then you can make the decision that you think this is going to end right away or you can make the decision that it's not going to end right away. That's up to you. I'm just showing you exactly what's happening. And I don't think that people fully comprehend this. That's my sense of this. This is one of the reasons why I shorted airlines and I think airlines could have a a bad time here unless this you know they just hug it out which it's not looking very good to that is it the backwardation of oil futures first month versus six month think about the first month is higher than the six month is that levels seen in previous large supply disruptions meaning we're higher on the front and then we are in the back mean backwardation but here's what's so fun interesting about this if you look at this one two you're higher now than you were during the Russian invasion of Ukraine you're higher than the Iraqi war. The only thing that you're close to is the 99 OPEC cuts and that's saying a lot and I again I don't think people truly are getting this and it's the speed in which it was done that's also throwing people off and that takes you to the increase of inflation expectations. These inflation expectations haven't caught up anywhere near to what's going on right now. Everyone just expects this to just oh it's just going to drop down and everything will be fine. That is not saying everything is fine. That is telling you that inflation is about to kick up pretty substantially here, which again could put us into an area of stagflation. I thought this was a really interesting graph and it's exactly what we've been seeing. So cash trading is from 9:30 to 4 and the overnight market that Deutschbank did this. I just thought it was worth sharing. And the cash trading hours, you're up from January on, you're up a little bit. You're up about 1%. If you're holding things overnight, you are getting it. And if you're trading overnight, you're coming in or anything you're holding overnight, all you're doing is just waiting to come in. I've said this several times where all I'm doing is watching my swing trades or watching the day pay for my swing trades. And it's showing you real time how that's happening. The overnight market is considerably weaker. And then you're coming in during the day and then they're covering those shorts and then they're red doing it again at night. So buying the dips overnight and selling them into the cash market for futures traders probably makes a lot of sense here because it's historically what's been happening for the year. it. They even break down S&P intraday performance, which again makes so much sense here. But you can see the overnight trading. And one of the things that I'm really wrestling with, and I was just talking to a couple guys about this, is we're doing the 9:30 to 10:30 live trading in this market. And if you really look at the market, that's not optimal. So, I'm going to work on this, try to figure out how to fix it. Is it buying the last hour of the day as it usually is? Nope. They're pretty much flat as well. So, where are you seeing it? the way that this graph is is telegraphing you right now that really going long before 10:30 just on the index itself. Obviously names are names um and the names are changed but not waiting till 10:30 you're doing yourself a diss service on the long side. And if you go back and look at some of these charts it's pretty obvious but from a time standpoint you know holding overnight you're doing yourself a disservice when you look at the overnight trading. You actually should be buying. So like Sunday night when the market opens tonight, if it opens and gaps down, those people that are buying that and then selling it into the morning and getting out before 3:00 are probably doing the best historically right now. So if we look at fund flows across all categories as a percentage of assets, this will show you exactly where you are above and rising and below and below average and slowing. And this yellow came in, these didn't come in good, but this is below average and rising. And then this is going to be above average and slowing. But what we want really want to focus on are a couple things. Anything we want things to either be going up here, but you don't really want them to be going this way. So if we look at momentum here, momentum is now below average and slowing down. So they are still getting out of the momentum trades. And we'll get to that. We'll show that in a second here. If we look at the bull bear market indicator by Bank of America, you're still at a 92. Does it feel like a 92 to anybody? No. And and this is really where I'm going with this. I think that this can actually get a lot worse than people think it can because the way people are getting out of trades and we're going to cover that in the charts. But I really want to hammer some just objective data home on these and that's why I'm going through them faster to hammer the points home. Energy dependence on imports as a percentage of total energy consumption. Taiwan 90%, Japan, South Korea, Germany which is just that's just really scary actually. Um and this is where the EU is. It's really very interesting um how bad EU and Germany are reliant on what's going on right now and it's a real issue. I I really think looking at this this is why people will wind up shorting Europe when oil gets hit the way it is but really with the way South Korea, Japan and Taiwan were if this continues you can see why they would continue to get worse and that is something that we need to be aware of. anything in this quadrant from the 50 over, you could say UK and India, but EU, Germany, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, this gets worse. It's definitely something that is going to weigh on those stocks. Um, if you look at the investors that are long EM EU stocks and banks, the emerging markets, they are filled with those names. They are absolutely filled with stocks and banks and those names. Like filled. And it's a problem if this continues because it can get worse. People think that, oh, that's it. can't get worse. It can always, always get worse. And I just want to show a couple key things here. I don't want to get too bogged down with things because I think it's super important for us to get just an understanding of this and I want to get into charts and I want to keep it 34,000 ft up because it's going to change a lot this week. Short dollar, long gold, long EM credit, long EM equities, long sneepers uh frontend rates, long swap spreads, just general momentum unwind in US equities. third standard deviation on one day magnitude move. You have a third standard deviation which right down here today's equity returns. It'll show past year performance deciles. You're at a third standard deviation on what you're moving and now it's showing that the day that they made this you were actually up. It's my understanding of this that you have a lot more to go. Now I just want to show one more graph. Actually that's not true. I'm going to show two more. This is Europe correlation to oil and you can see that when you have a three-month the 52- week but when oil drops it is followed by Europe and we're not seeing that yet not to that extent and I want to point something else out like people are looking at these moves to the downside for me understanding this spread of average return between top and bottom decile of performance in the top 500 market cap. All right, what does that mean? That means like how are the average names doing on the top and the bottom and the top 500 market cap names over 3 months. If you go back to 10 2010 to 16, you are in the most crowded trades that you've been in in 16 years. When they went out of momentum, it's like a golf ball through a garden hose. And that pressure is why you're seeing these names like light or co drop or GLW drop so fast. You have capital preservation and hedge fund guys and long only guys and mutual funds and everybody else that's an institution that is I am not going down on the year. So if I flip to down on the year after being up 5% I'm going to cash. I don't care if my company makes air. And when you have it crowded like this that's why the velocity of the drop is so significant because it's not one person doing it. They don't care what these companies do. They're not attached to them. They're just I'm out. I'm out. I'll come back to it. I'm sure it's a great company, but I'm sitting in cash. Too much risk. And that's exactly what's happening here. And I really want to hammer that point home before we go any further. All right. There are a lot of charts here. So, I'm going to just start at the beginning. I'm not going to get into anything too deep here because I don't think it makes sense to get into it with the futures and everything else. We're going to see how they open. We'll see how we open tomorrow, too, and then we'll go from there. Uh, you obviously have net sellers in the futures now through CTAs. You're through some levels. I I have too many names to go through and too much theory to go through to to spend time on it. So, let's just do this Q's. You have a declining 55 until you are now above that at 6:15. The idea that you should be looking at swing trades to me is just absolutely silly. Anything that is in the newsletter, anything that was an alert, anything that you are in, you have two two lines in the sand, if you are super conservative, or if you are conservative, I should say it that way. If you break the 10 SMA of anything that's a swing trade alert or anything that you're in and you're still in that, you better believe in it a lot in a market like this. If anything that you're in on a swing trade that you are not willing to go back to break even right now, you need to really re-evaluate the risk that you're taking. So, anything that's in the swing trade alerts at all or any of the alerts whatsoever, you need to be willing to go back to break even on. This market's going to be extremely volatile and until it stops, we just don't know where it ends. Now, we have our close under 600, which is the first close under 600 that you've had. Whether it holds, doesn't hold, I don't know. I know this much. I know the market that I'm seeing when I'm reading the news is pretty bad. Is that all factored in? I don't see how it possibly could be all factored in. Now, if we take a look at the spy, it's just as bad. And we are below the value low and we're below point of control. And this is accelerating to the downside and we are losing sectors, not gaining sectors. So as much as I want to be warm and fuzzy, I can't do it till I have a reason to be warm and fuzzy. Your put wall moved all the way down from 675, just so you understand this, to 660. This is an enormous move and they are preparing themselves for a big move down. So I'm going to say that again. We were at 675 forever on the put wall. It's jumped down to 660. They are prepping themselves for a move down. Whether you get it or not remains to be seen, but that's how they're prepping right now. The cues, we'll see how it opens, but they're prepping for 600 still. That's where it is, which is kind of interesting. But from my standpoint, you are now below these value areas. And you tend to get back into them. You should, but let's see how this goes because right now it's definitely an issue the longer that we're staying under here. And candidly, this is pretty much worst case because it looks to me like we might get the point of control down here and then we're going to be under this as well, which would be worst case scenario. Meaning, I wanted point of control in here. You see how close you were and then I went to get over it. I wanted a bunch of things on Friday. I didn't get many of them. And so, what we're going to get here is it seems like we're going to work out below this. And then if point of control works its way up into this area and then we roll back down through this, that's pretty much not what we want. We do not have any leading sectors. IGV is not a leading sector. It is bouncing. You have XLC which is holding in there and you have XLE which is leading but for how long can that lead because it's not 20some% of the index. You need financials to lead and they are below the 55 which means we do not have institutional support. Subjective socks it broke. You close below the 55. We've closed below the 55 before. I agree we have. Let's hope it bounces. But right now, this is what we have. And we can only go over on technically what we have. So, I don't see a reason for me to get heavy here. I see a reason for me to be in defense mode. The idea that something's going to work out here because, you know, Korea only has two weeks left of oil and their jet fuel just went up 100%. So, surely the US and Israel have to work this out. I I I don't even have words for that. Like why? Right. Taiwan's going to be out. I think it's seven days or 11 days they'll be out. Wh why why is this an issue for the US and Israel? Like I I get it. They're going to lean on Iran. Like China will lean on Iran, but to what end? Oh, surrender. Like surrender to what? You know, they're not there's no option being given to them. So it's one of these things. Oh, everyone's just playing hard ball and at the end of the day they're going to get it together. They have not gotten it together to the point that Kuwait had to shut in their production to protect it. Like this is not going well. And you can be delusional about it and say, "Oh, they'll figure it out." But I don't see that. I'd rather go on what we're seeing. So, we're continuing to see jets fall down and airlines fall down. We have UL coming out and saying, "Hey, this could be a real problem." If you want to step in front of the train because the train's going to get fixed because cooler heads always prevail. That's on you. And I I can only point out what's happening, but I don't see it that way. And we'll see if futures will open up a little bit here and we'll go from there. So I have to trade what's actually happening, not rainbows and unicorns, right? I have to trade what's actually going on. And this is what's happening right now. So I don't have anything leading. They move the put wall down. They are trying to protect their capital, which is what I'm doing. All my stops are going to be at break even or better on everything that I own. And if I'm really concerned, I'll use the 10 or the 22 on it. You should be doing the same thing. If any of the alerts that are out there that are on that spreadsheet are too great for you, then that's what you should be doing. But I can only give you information education as to what I'm doing. You should do what you're comfortable with. Going into the week, there's so many names to go over here. It's absolutely insane. I will say this, Oracle's call is 170, which puts it right at the 55. Oracle's laying people off and the stock goes down. Block lays people off and the stock goes up 20%. It makes zero zero sense. So my sense of this is that every IGV name that has laid people off or given bad guidance has absolutely exploded the next day. Oracle started the IVG or the IGV drop back here in September. You from that point on, from last September, just so we're clear, from the peak here to where you are, you are down 60%. So I do think that this thing is due for a bounce on earnings. In regards to other names, the names that look the best, you have GD, you have Lheed, you have RTX, they all look great. Defend is the easiest way to just play them all. If we put the moving averages in here and we look, we got a bat above the 22. I don't see how these names don't go higher, but you never know. But the one that stood out the most to me candidly from a technical standpoint was just GD. How it kept testing over and over this range on Wix and it just kept holding. So that would be the one that I'd be focused on because I think you're basing here and I think you're setting up to break out if we look at the close from the earnings. So we have the earnings bar right here and we just drop it there like it's hot. The kids still say that broke out test. The past five days we've tested that area and are unable to break it and these are starting to unwind. So I do like GD here. I do like Oracle and maybe calls the 160s into the quarter just in case it's something. I mean this thing is so beaten down. It's It's absolutely insane. CF, I looked at all the fertilizer names, NT RM OS, and you guys can definitely throw them at me as well. Um, my sense of this, and I think I have this other name in here too that I want to go over. I should. Yep, there it is. So, if we look at CF, and you are breaking out here, and it is huge volume. You know, when you shut down the straight, you lose all kinds of things. Fertilizer gets expensive. So, can CF continue to push? I I don't see why not. I mean, I I really don't see why it can't go higher. I think CF will go higher. That's the best looking chart of when I look at the fertilizer names, but I think the easier move might just not even play that and just play the the straight out agricultural move. I mean, this is just, you know, I keep waiting for some kind of pullback. It's super low beta. Uh, it hardly moves, but you'd have to think that prices are going to stay higher for longer. Even if this got fixed the next day, I think you have a shot at this and coming back to these highs up here if you're willing to take the long the long road. Uh, you know, 3 million traded that day. It's it's a huge freaking number and I only think it's going to get bigger. So, we'll see how that goes. But that's definitely of interest to me as well. Uh, Adobe, I don't know that Adobee's going out of business, but you have earnings going Thursday. All these names have traded up on these earnings no matter how dismal they are. Remember, Workday basically said, "We're going to cut guidance by 10%." That's what they said here. We're cutting guidance by 10%. It opened at 116. You haven't really had a a red day except one, and now you're at 154. So, these things have had massive, massive, massive bounces after earnings. And Adobe might not be any different or it might say no one ever wants to use Photoshop again. But, I don't think that's going to be the case. You're getting a 1222 cross here. And I think it's worth mentioning going into earnings. Alta going into earnings also you're starting to hold the 55. This is always a fun one into earnings. Last earnings was a blockbuster and it absolutely broke out. Now with the tariffs knowing exactly what you're dealing with, you might get more love on that. DG holding that 55 going into earnings is something I'm paying attention to. Uh and this also is going to tie into something else, a more thematic move. I might as well just do it now to ties into it kind of. So we look at Costco. Costco over the higher high tomorrow and I will probably be putting a swing trade on. Looks like it's 103 and I'll be putting the swing trade on. This movement on Friday, the way that you moved is absolutely what you're looking for. And what we're seeing is we're seeing buying in anything that is what for whatever reason SFM was perfect. Someone asked me this on Friday, is this where you would add? I said this is exactly where you would add. You're breaking out sideways, retest the 55, and then you make a higher high. If you look at all the supermarkets, the supermarkets are all breaking out and you see Kroger's doing something similar here. And I think it makes sense for Costco. I think that vein makes so much sense. And just to kind of follow that the vein of that, you would have to think about it from a standpoint of people are going to start looking for deals going to Costco buying in bulk. Why? Because if you look besides us talking about it, if you go and take a look at what's happening with gasoline, that's gasoline prices. So that's going to affect everybody. And so you have names like EZPW or P EZP eZPW there it is that are absolutely setting up here and I'll show you this one and then I'll show you another one. Uh but EZPW you can see you've undercut the 22 and bounced pawn shop. These kinds of names do very well when people get stressed out. Um that one is more US-based. This is US and Latin America. From a technical standpoint I like this one more because that's my breakout bar. And how many times did I close below my breakout bar? Say it with me. Zero. So, from a technical standpoint, I like this one more. I may buy it if it flips right here. Uh, but it's definitely something that I'm playing it by ear tomorrow. And I really want to see how we open tonight and then we'll go from there. But, uh, other than that, you know, that's pretty much it. But there those names fit into kind of that category that I'm looking for. Crowd, I thought they were great. I thought it was a great quarter, but I'm at the 55. I got to start closing over it in here to get involved. AVGO told you everything that you needed on Friday. Here you are. You're at 343. Everybody loves it. And what's it do? Closes near the low and we're wedged in here. This is what you're playing with now between that and Marvel. You've had great earnings. They are not being overly rewarded. Now Marvel's still up there, which is good, but they're not being overly rewarded. Where you are seeing some names being rewarded and holding ground, which is super interesting, is the XY space. And we're seeing that with Target. We're seeing that with Raw Stores. Those names are holding. Now, whether they continue to hold or not, you know, that remains to be seen, but I think that that's super important. And before I go any further, I do want to go past that. Raw Stores here. I just want to go through something on the private credit side because I didn't touch base that much on this. Black Rockck, all of a sudden, you want to withdraw from your private credit fund. Guess what? You can't do withdraw from your private credit fund. This going back down to 788 would not surprise me. People be like, "Oh, I can't do that. It was there a year ago. Of course, it could do that. It's telling clients they can't pull their money out of investments. When you look at something like BX, they're saying, "Oh, we're going to go and bail out the investors of this one. Everyone pony money in." Well, that's telling you that they're probably only going to do that once. And that's telling you that nobody really wants this paper. And then you look at AL and you're seeing the increase in the short position here. Not decrease, increase. So, the private credit names are in a lot of trouble. And that's something else that I just don't think people are really that focused on. But the retail side looks really interesting. AES. So, this was supposed to get bought out a lot higher. Everyone was giddy. They're going to buy it out. And it was a really buy under 15, which is super interesting. And the stock imploded. I'm wondering if you get another sell day on this because everybody is pretty much underwater from this deal whether it goes through or not. But what's interesting about it is if it dropped enough, if it there's pressure on this starts getting 13.5, something like that, I might buy this with a $15 cash offer. It's on my radar. So there it is. CDE, if you're super interested in owning a mining company, I really like how you came in here and held that 55 and then tried a new high and I like how you're holding that 55 again. Maybe you're going to go. So, what I'm doing is I'm giving you a broad-based way of how I'm looking at this. And that's really all I can do just till I come in tomorrow and see what we're dealing with. VRT, you got added to the S&P 500. Do I think it trades up for probably the first 5 minutes and then I think it probably sees selling. Why? Because that's what we're dealing with now. We're seeing we're seeing people that want to get out. Do I'm not rushing into these things. What I'd like to do is be able to buy as much as I possibly can or get involved as much as I possibly can at the price where it closed the previous day. So on Friday it closed at 242 roughly. So getting back into that area is what I'm looking for. SATS, surprise surprise, got added. No one had that on their radar. Up $5 after hours. You have an enormous short position here. And now you have two things. One, you have the SpaceX IPO, and two, you just got added to the S&P 500. the idea that somebody's going to want to stay short this I mean maybe and I wish them the best but I just think it'd be absolutely silly to stay short that if I look at him uh this news on HIMS obviously it's not finalized it's rumor but NVO came out and said uh yeah this we are talking but nothing's finalized and when we do we'll let everybody know 39.65% 65% of the volume of this is short. Period. End of story. I took a position in it. I didn't sell any of it. I mean, nothing could come of it, but I would not want to be short this if you were going into the premise of I'm short because they're being sued by the FDA. They're being sued by NVO and they don't have a drug. They don't have this access to the drug to you switched in 7:45 that night to you may have access to the drug. NVO is no longer suing you and wants to work with you to sell the actual drug itself. I mean, it's uh it's a 180. So, it's definitely of interest and I think that that could be absolutely wild. Eco, um I'm not big on the tankers here because of what I'm seeing, but if you were, this tanker hit the 22. So, I'm giving you more of a broad-based overview here. I will say the following. Uh looking at USO and people are saying, "Oh, well, clearly this is over." I don't see how this is over yet. That's my opinion of it. You should do what you're comfortable with, but I don't see how USO's move higher is over yet. And you are completely seeing momentum names like light and these other names, you're seeing huge reversals in these names like light or GLW. And my point is with all this stuff, you do not want to go past your break even on anything because it can always get worse. And I just want to hammer this home and I'm not trying to be like a, you know, overly ne negative Nelly here, but you don't have anything really there that that I see. You're waiting for negative catalysts to fix themselves to drive the market higher, right? You're waiting for Iran to stop. You're waiting for the the private credit market to get better. You're not waiting to move higher because you have positive developments. You're waiting for the net negative developments to not be as bad. So, for now, we're going to trade what's in front of us, but I wanted to go over that broadly on how I see this playing out thematically, and we'll see how we open at 6:00 in the futures market. In the spirit of making this more manageable, I'm breaking it down to the ones that I want to focus on. I think it's easier for me to show it that way. And what I'm seeing are some names are just going to be fun to watch. ZIM, maybe they talk about the merger, maybe they don't, but it's definitely worth paying attention to. SBET, I can't wait to hear that thing on Monday morning. Um, but as always, any rally in that, I would just short it. Again, you know, that's really how I feel about it. Casey's will be really interesting because of what's going on with the gas market. Remember, they have a lot of flexibility. They can switch where they're buying from, where most most gas stations can, and they make a killing off of doing this. If you go look at a Casey's chart, people always look at this chart and are just in awe where it's been and where it's going. It's just absolutely crazy. They're just cash cows. Now before the open Tuesday, NIO, it be interesting for them to talk about their inroads on what they're doing in Europe, Canada, etc. Same thing with LI down here on Thursday. Uh but then KSS, you know, some of these retailers have killed it and KSS is trading under book still and you're in a position here where you have a huge short position and they are under booked. But you look at names like Ross Stores, Burlington, how Costco acted, that's really interesting how that's going to act. BNTX. It's just I want to pay attention to it, but I don't have any major catalyst. The one that the ones that really stand out to me Tuesday night are Oracle and AVAV. Oracle is already saying we're going to lay people off and the stock hardly moved on it. It went the exact opposite. Block says they're going to lay people off and the stock goes up 22%. I I really think that Oracle could come out here and saying, "Hey, we're slowing down capex. We have more than enough to cover all our debt. We're not worried about that at all. Uh, but we're going to slow down the capback side. We want to make sure the growth is there. You never know how this is going to go, but I don't think it's going to be an a dumpster fire. I could be wrong. But from a speculative standpoint, the way that these uh names are getting squeezed the next day in the software space makes a lot of sense to me. So, if we gap down tomorrow, the time recording this is Monday or Sunday, duh, uh, Sunday. The questions are going to get hard as the day goes on. Then I really want to look at this and say to myself, do I want to start looking at buying, you know, calls out already on some kind of dip on Monday? And the answer is probably yes. I'd probably look at like the 160, something out of the money. They either work or they don't. A speculative trade is there. AVAV talking about the whole drone space. I think is interesting. Campbell has been pretty active. So that Wednesday pre-market seeing if there's some kind of turnaround there. Path sticks uh Stitch Fix Bumble Wolves. These are just fun names that are worth watching. Again, the real drivers for me are Tuesday night where we could see some real action. I'm really curious how Oracle acts. I I think that if you look at how these names are acting, Workday and all these other names, I mean, the one that started the entire selloff of IGV was Oracle. So, I find that pretty fascinating. Uh and what could happen there? Now, if they come out and earnings are bad and they're saying we're not changing capex, it could be a dumpster fire. That's why I'm not so sure you do it with equity. I think it's options. it works or it doesn't. If we look at something uh going into Thursday, super interesting names with Dixs yet again, Dollar General. So, the the retail names have been doing really well. LII, you'll get some feeling from that on NIO. Futu, what are they going to say about the stabilization in and coin market, the stable coin market? I think that's going to be interesting as well. And then Thursday night, you have Ulta NKTR with that new promising drug RBRK. I put this one in here because you guys like to watch that. And Adobe, I I don't think Adobee's going to zero, but you know, they do have a lot of risk with what they're doing. So, they're not a onetrick pony, but it's definitely something worth paying attention to. Again, what I'm doing here is getting away from showing you 72 different names and showing you the ones that I think are most interesting, that have the most potential to be the most impactful names of that particular area, whether it's before the market or after the market. You guys can always comment on this, but I think that this is much cleaner way for you guys to look at earnings and and then focus on which ones you might be interested in or might not be interested in. Economic data on the week. So, I scrubbed it and this is what I came up with. And I will say this, you're really driven by news headlines right now, but some of the stuff we still want to watch. I do want to watch the 3-month, six-month auction and see how much demand there is for short-term paper right now. I don't know that consumer inflations would have and expectations would have moved based upon what's going on, but I do want to watch it. Uh business optimism I put in there because I want to watch. But ADP employment change on the weekly down here on Tuesday. And what you're going to have to do with all these dates because we have the time zone flip just shift them all one hour. So this is really instead of 10:30, 11:30, the site didn't update yet. Uh so 10 a.m. existing home sales, we're going to want to watch that. the 1pm three-year note. I want to watch that as well. If we get into this with Wednesday, 1 PM, you have a 10-year note auction. We're going to want to watch that. Um, this they're saying 8:30, which might be right. And that might be why they changed it to red. Uh, I hate when they do these the daylight savings time, spring ahead stuff. It It throws everything off. But CPI, this is a really weird week because you get CPI this week and you also get PCE this week. So, it's pretty weird. Uh very rare that that happens, but the data has just been a mess since the shutdown. So it is what it is. Some of these numbers look they could come in. I think they can come in a little hotter than people are expecting. And you know, does that happen because of February? It could because we did see oil start creeping up ahead of this. So it's definitely it's definitely out there. And I think Wednesday is going to be a a big day. I think Friday is huge. Uh then we have the claims 213. As long as we're not over that 250 continuing claims used to get over 19s, not doing that anymore. balance of trade will be super interesting. It's just interesting because they adjusted some of these dates but not all of them. Uh 30 years 100 p.m. on the bond auction. So, we're going to want to watch that as well. PCE 8:30, uh core PCE 8:30, GDP growth 8:30, Joltz jobs openings, yes, on a Friday because why not? At the same time, we're going to come out Michigan consumer sentiment. So, we just have a ton of data this week. Friday seems the most deadly to me because there's so much that that has to go right. Uh and if you go back to really Wednesday, you have CPI that day and yeah, people are going to really want to watch that and you don't have a lot more ahead of that. Maybe the employment change, but do I need the weekly employment change if I don't have non-farm payrolls? It was already a dumpster fire. So, I do think the economic data is getting worse. It's not getting better, but it's so scattered and it's so erratic uh that I don't know how much faith is being placed into it until we get back to standards. So, you know, a lot of people don't that follow this stuff know that the standards changed in Jan 25 and then they went back to it, but then you had to reset everything because the government was shut down. So, there was no data collection. So, a lot of this stuff's really thrown off. So, it's being taken more with a grain of salt than anything else. But, I do think that yeah, I do think Wednesday is a big deal. I'm not going to say it's not, but I think Friday is huge between the PCE numbers that are coming out, the GDP that's coming out, Jolts opening consumer at Michigan consentiment. Uh, you know, maybe we have more clarity as well on the war and which way it's going by Friday that there'll be more focused on the economic data. Between the war and the conflict, I should refer to it that way. The earnings this week and the economic data, I I expect a lot of headline risk and a lot of gap up and gap downs as I've stated earlier in this video. So let's just keep our head on a swivel and go from there.