Raw Transcript
Welcome to my view of the stock market. Uh this is today's daily review, Thursday, March 5. You're looking at a daily chart of the NASDAQ, which was down only 59 points today or 0.26%. You could see the volume once again pretty heavy 29% above the 50-day average which had been kind of skewed from like Thanksgiving and uh through um you can see here you know the end of November through December pretty light brought the line down. Now we're starting to pick up volume. If we take a look at the weekly here you can really see these pink volume bars here uh in the 2026. So, it's been pretty rough. If I go to the month here, we're still up on the month. Yeah, 80 points. How about that? It's only March 6, so plenty of time uh for that. But you can see how sideways it's been. I go through this every day. It's been five months of just chop chop chop chop chop. Just not a healthy market. You know, I'd like to see it give us a direction one way or the other. The other day it came down to its 200, tried to rally up a little bit. Looks like some resistance here at that 21-day line. Anyway, you know, no direction uh one way or the other. I'd like this direction if it would do that. Uh or, you know, if it's this direction, just rip off the band-aid and sell everything and crash and burn would be good, too. But right here, it's just chop uh chop chop chop sooie, man. And it's very difficult to make any headway in your portfolio. You know, you get up a little bit and then, you know, you sell off and it's back to back to even and that's just the way it's been. 2026 been a pretty tough year. No question about it. Um, I know the NASDAQ is down for the year. I guess about 3%. It closed today 2% below the 50, 0.6% below the uh 21. Yeah. And this is a dangerous market. You know, it is wartime and this is, you know, market is selling off. You know, getting you get air pockets and this is like bearish activity. Like it wasn't it didn't take very long for it to go from what uh 22,877 at 10 10:00 a.m. And then here is a half hour later. Here we're at uh 22624. Uh so that's quite a selloff here. um you know over a couple hundred points in less than a half an hour. So that this is the type of air pocket that comes in bearish type of uh markets. you know, it's just no rhyme or reason. Just boop, you know, we sell. Some buyers come in and then whoop, you get another air pocket, flattens out, some buyers into the close. But I think uh I I don't know. It's just a really tough market, you know. Same thing with the spy. There's no place to hide. Uh this is below the 50 as well. Um yeah, and it's hard to get real aggressive in a market like this. 1% below the 50. The IWM had been consolidating in a base and now this is below its 50 1.4%. So all of these indexes here below their 50 Dow uh and it was down more than a,000 points and you know they don't ring a bell at the top but when the attorney general said the Dow's at 50,000 it's been down ever since. So um yeah they don't ring a bell but she she was screaming it pretty loud. Uh down um 2.4% below the 50. So there's just not a lot of places to hide. And if you do have a stock going up, you know, in a trend, it just tends to just sell off right away. So, um, yeah, I'm going to get to some sunnier things to talk about. First of all, Broadcom reported last night. Good report. You know, near up nearly 5% just up to the 50 here and I'm likely to be rejected. Will I short that? No, I won't. But you can see it's in a downtrend here as the shorterterm moving averages are below the longer term 50 days. So yeah, nothing to do there. Octa reported last night this thing has been beaten down badly. Up 11% you can see maybe it's made a bottom here as a lot of software names have. Viv reported last night Viva Systems. Um and once again this one's been beaten down badly. Looks like I got rejected at the 50 today. Excuse me. My allergies are killing me. Can't go golfing as much. That's a real bad problem for me. All right. Intrepid pod dash. Man, when pod dash is moving like this, breaking out of a cup with handle, you know, it's a defensive market. It's really reminding me of 2022 where there's only one game in town and that's the oil and gas. Um and you know you might get some like moves like this in pot ash which reminds me of um CF another one in this group. Yeah. Breaking out. So you get oil, you get fertilizers. I mean yeah it's pretty defensive folks. All right. What else can I get to? Oh Uma. Uma had a a nice move up 11%. TTD uh reported last night that they're going in business with what was it? Open AAI sell I don't know sell advertising or whatever but it was up 18% hit that 50 got rejected like my Tombbo. I wonder what that looks like on a five. There you go. Run up to the 50 and sell off all day. So anyway, can't get excited about this stuff. Um yeah, nothing nothing moves me right now. W coming off the lows is um computer software, you know, enterprise stock up through the 50s. So that looks pretty good. I think that, you know, that's made a low and um yeah, the market has been, you know, gravitating towards some of those beaten down software names. BR, what BRKB? Yeah, that's um Buffett's company. They're not buying anything. He's got like 400 billion on the sideline. So, he's not excited about anything either. What they're going to do is just buy back the A and the B. And it was up 2% on that news, almost 3%. But he's been consolidating for a while, too. This is Warren Buffett's Birkshar B shares. Yeah. Cup. And then Long Handle, which is actually a flat base. So, anyway, that's it for that group. I got to go to the group that's you know kicking butt and doing what you know what you know you want your portfolio to do and that's you know break out and move higher. This is a DK you know had this cup shaped pattern formed a little handle here and then blasted off the 21 now through that old standard by point of 4350 and you know this just you know anything oil related is going higher. Um, that's not what I wanted. USO pri the spot price of oil is going way higher. You know, I talked about the Brent being at 85 this morning and the WTI and so this is going to hit your um gas prices at the pump here, folks. Yeah, it's up 17 and a half% this week, which is, as you can see, a pretty volatile move for something that's not all that volatile. Um, oh boy. Yep. Mhm. Anyway, um, so it's like shooting fish in a barrel in these oil and gas stocks, although I don't own any of them, but this is a place to be. And this is why it reminds me of 2022 when uh, Chairman Pal was raising interest rates at a record fast pace and uh, the market turned into a bare market. Now, I'm not saying we're going into a bare market, but this is the type of behavior that we see in a bare market. And uh just the only uh play in town, you know, CRC, another one, California Resources breaking out um up 8% RRC range resources breaking out of a base. I should go to the daily here in case you guys are interested in buying uh some of these. Um CRC is another one. California just breaking out. Uh I like looking at the weekly charts, but yeah. Um yeah, if you want to own something, oil is the place to be. I didn't check on my tide water today. It's probably Yeah. pulled back again. So this is a this is a field services name, not um not like an exploration or a transportation name. Fang up, which reminds me of the uh pipeline names. Yeah. Okay. The front line sold off a couple of days. Um, who else do I have here? Oh, MGY. So, it's not like Judy Fish in a barrel. You got to be in the exploration names. Uh, Magnolia Oil and Gas making new highs showing strength. Uh, SU, yeah, breaking out. Yippi Kaya. Um, yeah, broke out earlier had a three weeks tight. So these things are hitting, you know, highs and um you just wonder how long this is going to last. EOG, it could last a long time or it could, you know, change tomorrow. But for right now, this is like the only game in town. B Pacific a refiner making new highs. Yeah, you can see it breaking out of that uh base today pretty nicely. And um anyway um I'm going to get off the oil and gas. It's um pretty much um like um you know shooting fish in a barrel. All right. What are they buying? Also the software names uh IGV making another move higher today. Up 2.3% and within that group I I like couple of name service now but it's got to get through that 50 and same with Apple 11. This is probably my favorite one but it's right there at the 200. So, could get rejected there. If it goes through there, you may be on to something. Yeah, that's probably my favorite one. Made that low at 360 and has been ripping ever since. Um, Data Dog. Well, I And also, I got to go to the um Data Dog. It's up against its uh 50 as well. Crowd Strike reported the other day. And of course, the darling ramp tire. Um, it's up against its 50. has been beaten down below its longerterm moving averages, but um you know they're buying them for now. How long this will last, I don't know. I I'm not a bottom fisher because there's too much overhead supply and then too much resistance. Sometimes it works out though and people like making money on these, but that's just not my style. That's all. Not knocking anybody if they, you know, they can make money on data dog here. Fine. Good for you. Or Snowflake. you know, the software names are being bought. Anyway, uh Digital Ocean was another one that um held up pretty well. Yeah, now it's selling off. Uh but yeah, I think you get the idea. Even uh CRM, Benoff's company hit a low and now but you can see how much overhead supply there is here and how much resistance uh there is. So, but yeah, probably a bottom there in sales for just a question of how how high it can trade up, you know, out of a and maybe break out of a Yeah, that it's in a stage four decline. And uh anyway, I'm just I don't know. I'm just not in the mood to buy oil. I'm not in the mood to buy um software names. But, you know, that is what's cooking. What what's bothering me and what I'm seeing is that the leadership is failing. And this is a big problem here. If you want to have a um you know an uptrend, you got to have leaders. These leaders are being shot. Maybe oil and software the new leaders. Um it's been my history though when commodities like oil lead uh that it comes with a price and it's usually not very pretty. Sienna sold off after earnings, closed below 300, almost made a trip down to the 50 today, but it also had some pin action in some of these other names here within the um fiber optic. This is a number one group, so if you can't win here, you know, you're going to have to look around elsewhere. But, you know, I must admit, you know, it's had this massive run. All right? So, it is time for a break. And there's nothing wrong with that if it can do do something like it has in the past here, like a run up and just go sideways or take take a a rest, you know, run up and pull back to a moving average. It's run up a lot now. So, if it pulled back to this line here, that would be um normal and hopefully it can continue higher. It's already 17% off of its um 52- week high. We're seeing the same thing in memory stocks. You know, they've run up. The Micron broke out of a base, ran up, pulled back ahead of the last earnings report, and since its most recent earnings report, it's ran up like I don't know 10 weeks in a row. And now forming this high tide flag, which is still legit, but um this thing's showing, you know, weakness here. U you know, indecision into the earnings report for sure. And um uh the 18th, it's the 18th. So anyway, and then Sandis, it's running mate. Yeah, man. This is uh running into a lot of uh resistance here. Rejected at the 21. WDC. Um yeah, rejected at the 21. STX, I think, is even worse. Back to the 50. So, yeah, a lot of the leaders are just getting uh smoked here. Let's be honest. Gloworm back to the 21. You just they're selling these and buying oil essentially and maybe some software. some of these former leaders. COR, another one. This Photonix, uh, Fiber Optics Group. Um, yeah, this one pulled back to the 21. Kind of a mild pullback. I kind of like that. Um, CAMT is hanging in there. Not bad at the 21. Um, STRL in the data center buildout play. Yes, slices 21 today. Just there's no um, none of these stocks are showing me anything here. Vertive held in there okay today. Have this on the ready list for the week. It's a stock I like. It's a stock I bought, but it's not doing anything. You know, it's not doing anything. Uh probably surf hopefully it'll surf the 21 to higher prices, but man uh yeah, this is just a tough tough go folks. The drugs, you think, man, maybe we can turn to the drugs. Nope. Lily the king is uh selling off here. And then if you want to look to other of these big uh farming names, Amjen getting slaughtered, uh Merc uh not fairing so well, uh down to the 50. So, you know, I don't want to do this. You know, we could see this stuff. Uh you could find failed stuff all over the place. I will point out a few biotech drug names that are doing well. This is the tour. My Taylor Swift stock up another 3% today. Um, I didn't buy it, but it's showing that trend. And the problem is stocks that trend like this are are getting hammered. Uh, so you just wait for the this thing to be sold off and falling 20% in a couple of days is and that's why I'm staying away from these things. TNGX. If it was a different type of market, I would be all o over these. But this one had a nice move today up 36%. A move not to be ignored. And what else we have? Oh, ST is another biotech that I like. Just consolidating. Not bad. While the market's falling apart. This one's hanging in there. We're at war, folks. I mean, let's be honest. And and there's going to be a lot of headline news that are going to be bad and the market's going to react to it and there's going to be good and it's going to go up. But overall, it's just chop sooie headline. Like I talked about air pockets and just a tough market. So yeah, some of these I like, but I'm not buying them. I just got to mention the value stocks were ripping all January, all February 2026 leaders. Now look what happened to them the last four days. They just been getting hammered. Um and so this is the problem. Not that I'm interested in buying um Colgate Palm all of which sliced uh it's 21 today or Clorox which sliced but they have been leading right these value plays and even they're getting hammered. So this is the type of stuff that tells me uh you got to stay away uh cash is a position CocaCola even getting slaughtered the cigarette names the lung darts looked like they were going to break out. This is Altra Group Mo. It's pulled back to its 21 uh Turning Point Brands cigarette company. Yeah, look at this thing. Look at it's just ripping all year having a great time. Yippi Cay were parting and then all a sudden boom, five days in a row and it's adios muchachos. Man, that is just brutal. 37% off its high in what, four or five days. Uh just incredible stuff, folks. It's just dangerous. That's why I say it's a dangerous market. I mean, take a look at a stock like GE, which I thought was set up pretty nice. And even this one, you know, was at 345 the other day. Now it closed at 326. So, yeah, 348. Here it is on last week, the second. Yeah. 3:47. Couple days later, boom. That was Monday. That was Monday 347. That's not a good week for GE. Yeah, down nearly 5%. So, I mean, sucks that you don't think you're going to move that much. They're just really getting crushed. And you would think the defense names would, you know, would be doing well, but they're not. So, you know, I'm not going to try to be a cowboy or a hero or a martyr and try to jump in. Um this just it's just too dangerous right now and stuff isn't working. One stock that I do like, you know, besides Vertive is um AOI did pull back to its five a couple times after this breakout, but this is the type of stuff that's not working. And I could see this thing getting a 10% haircut um you know, tomorrow or the next day, too. But the fiber optics groups all sold off except for this one. So h usually these lone wolves they don't last very long but this is one that I am watching anyway don't mean to be negative you know I cannot stand you know negativity in my life or negative energy I'm just pointing out the realities of the market right now it's it's very much you know hard to make hard to make a dollar in this one so you know a lot of people that I know like myself I was up 20% in January and now I'm back to even you know just gave it all back So, it happens. Um, not proud of myself, but that's the way it goes. At least I'm not negative about that. So, um, as the market is for 2026, tough times, tough market, just got to deal with it the best way you can. Cash is a position. And I know a lot of my trader friends have just gone to cash and just, you know, they're tired of, you know, mentally you get worn out, you know, trying to beat the market. And uh yeah, so they just gone to cash and just going to regroup. Go fishing, uh go skiing, go hiking, go golfing, go biking, go gardening. Just don't lose money in the market. Just go to cash. Cash is a position. That's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up. Decept in honor of the great Steve Jobs. I have some good news after hours. If you're into uh tech stocks and semiconductor names Marll up 15% which would get it back to you know where it was you know a few weeks ago here 8547 around that area. Maybe it can get up to 94 um where it was the beginning of January. But got a lot of work to do. But you know good news it's going higher after hours. So that that bodess well I guess. Um, another name, IOT, a software name up 10%. Uh, you know, I saw the earnings report. It was a beat and the raise was a raise, but just slightly slight beat, slight raise. I don't think it's going to be, you know, one of these powerful moves, but it might. It's been beaten down for a long time. And software is being bought. Uh, GWR Guidewire, it's a software financial name up 4% after hours and it got through its 50 today. So, that looks pretty darn good. And then a couple of bummers here on the way out. The gap falling to the gap. Yeah, it's going to fall for sure. Up down 7% after hours. Costco had a decent report. I don't know about the reaction, just flat. They had like 6% same store sales, which pretty impressive. And um yeah, decent report for Costco and it's just kind of flat after hours. Um I think that's it for me. Thank you for watching at mcstockcharts.com. We never give up.