Raw Transcript
Every generation thinks they're special, but I believe that those of us alive today really are special. This is an exceptional face in human evolution. The first reason is that energy is about to become abundant and that will remove the major constraint on innovation and growth. It's basic physics at work. Any change that doesn't naturally happen requires energy. This means we need energy for anything that we build, repair or synthesize. Novelty needs energy. More energy therefore means more novelty faster. Throughout human history, energy has been very limited. It started with just human labor. Then we used animals for extra power. Then windmills and watermills. Eventually, we started burning fossil fuels to generate energy. First wood, then oil, then coal. In the middle of the 20th century, we added nuclear fision and solar power. And the breakthrough that's around the corner now is nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion is special because its fuel is abundant and it has an enormously high energy density. Once we get the technology to work, the amount of power we can produce will dramatically increase. And sure, initially that'll be ridiculously expensive like any new technology, but give it a few decades and will for all practical purposes have unlimited energy which we can then spend on mining imaginary coins. Yes, they say nuclear fusion will always be 50 years away. I think they're wrong. We can see it coming closer. In the past decade, we've seen dozens of nuclear fusion startups popping up. And it's not just empty words. These companies are really building stuff, smaller devices with more powerful magnets. They use advanced material design and AI controlled feedback. They're trying entirely new approaches. Most of them will fail. We're not quite there yet, but there is tangible real progress. Even the pessimistic reports now put nuclear fusion at 2050. The second reason we're special is that we're just about to begin genetic engineering. We're changing our own DNA. And this means we can take evolution into our own hands. This is not in the future. This is already beginning to happen. Scientists are curing diseases by injecting genes into cells that allow them to produce missing proteins. We know how to edit the genes of a human embryo and I'm sure that all the hand ringing about it will not stop it. The potential is just too large. Yes, genetic engineering of humans is very scary and can go badly wrong. In fact, I give it a 100% probability that something will go badly wrong, but it's foreseeable that we'll do it nevertheless. And I believe that the turnout will overall be positive. And the third reason this is a special time to live is that we're about to vastly enhance our cognitive functions with intelligent machines. Artificial super intelligence is just around the corner five maybe 10 years and we'll have machines more intelligent than we are. That in itself will already be a dramatic change. But I think it'll go further. will use these AI so frequently that eventually we'll just merge with them using some sort of implant. This is why I'm not particularly worried that AI will kill us all because there'll be no them and us. There'll just be one new species of augmented humans. The technology for this is again not quite there yet. The major obstacle is that our current electrical systems are not very biompatible. Even leaving aside that not everyone likes having holes drilled into their skull, the current implants tend to not last long and cause trouble. Scientists are still trying to come up with ways to solve this problem. And hopefully they'll find some minimally invasive solutions, nanocale fibers or naturally growing ones soon. And along with artificial intelligence, we'll have intelligent robots at our side. This two is something that you can see coming if you follow the tech developments. The progress in robot technology in the past years has been stunning. So these are the reasons why I'm convinced that this is indeed a special time to be alive. Energy abundance, genetic engineering, super intelligence. That's why I think that the next decades will be a blast. Chaotic, scary, but also exciting. What a time to be alive. I've been thinking about this a lot recently about what it means in a practical way for how I should organize my life or set up that of my children. The issue is that while one can extrapolate technological progress to some extent, it's basically impossible to foresee the social and political consequences. The internet and smartphone revolutions which have changed our lives dramatically in the past 30 years had surprisingly little impact on society overall. But other scientific and technological inventions have not been so compatible with the existing social and political structures. The printing press for example very suddenly vastly increased literacy across the population among others leading to the reformation. Navigation and cgraphy led to world exploration and unfortunately also exploitation. the contraceptive pill, gunpowder, the industrial revolution, nuclear weapons. These all had dramatic social and/or political consequences. Are we facing such a shift? Again, nuclear fusion fits neatly into the existing social and political systems. Genetic engineering will change society because it's foreseeable that people will specialize physically for certain professions much more than today. But I don't think it'll cause much political upheaval. Artificial super intelligence though, that's going to change the political and social system entirely. On the political side, I believe it'll speed everything up, which is a good thing. On the social side, I'm afraid it'll increase wealth disparities both inside of nations as well as between them. This is why I think AI is not a wait and see technology because once it'll cross a certain threshold, early adopters will leave everyone in the dust and make sure there's no cheap way to catch up. This is why personally the way I'm prepping for the AI revolution is to not rely on the survival of our current democratic systems. They will go out of the window very quickly and be replaced by something else. In particular, I don't think the European welfare system will be around for much longer. I'm also making sure that my children are familiar with AI and its uses and problems. And yes, I'm thinking about what will happen to YouTube or social media in general. Despite what they say about the dead internet theory, I think that AI will end up making us better connected than before simply because it'll increase our capacity to have meaningful social connections. So, I'm more optimistic than pessimistic about YouTube. But ask me again tomorrow and maybe I've changed my mind. The reason I'm telling you about this is that for one thing, while I worry a lot about things that are going wrong, I also think we're on the edge of big changes. And also because I want to hear what you think. What are you doing to prepare for the AI intelligence explosion? If anything, let me know in the comments. Every generation thinks they're special. Ours is. Then again, so were the dinosaurs right before the interesting bit. Another conclusion I've drawn for myself is to cherish the moment. For example, with today's sponsor, Novium, and a special offer for the amazing hover pens. The hover pens are really masterworks of design. They float in their base thanks to strong permanent magnets and can freely spin. They are really well balanced. You don't have to fumble to put them in and they don't drop out either. This particular version is the hover pen interstellar balanced at the same angle as the tilt of Earth's axis. It has the premium version with a meteorite embedded. Yes, a real meteorite. So, there's part of your pen that actually flew through outer space. The hover pen doesn't just look good, it's also a pleasure to write with. It flows nicely across the page and it's refillable, too. They also have gift sets for the hover pens like this one which comes with a notebook and cards for to-do lists. With Christmas coming up, Novium currently has the biggest promotion of the year. That'll get you 20% off in the next 48 hours and 10% after this. All you have to do is use my QR code or the code Zabina. Links in the info below.