Raw Transcript
Welcome back. We are joined today by Colonel Douglas McGregor, a decorated combat veteran, author, and former adviser to the US Secretary of Defense. Uh thank you for coming back on. We are now heading towards the end of day three of the war against Iran. And uh I think uh well it's fair to say that I think Trump was hoping for a quick war but uh this it doesn't appear that there will be any quick uh regime change operation happening here. Uh how are you assessing it though is how how how should we I guess measure the developments of the war and uh what to expect. I think the first thing we can say is that the Iranians have targeted at least 27 bases including port facilities in the Middle East ranging from Iniric air base all the way down to Dubai in the Gulf. So the war has been effectively regionalized and the consequences of these actions cannot really be fully appreciated yet. Everyone knows about the Gulf and what that what has already happened in the oil markets today. The oil markets in Europe opened about 20% higher simply based on the probability that uh the oil supply would be disrupted for some period of time. So I think we're headed towards uh more than $100 a barrel. We'll get there pretty quickly. How high? I don't know, but I think that's going to happen. And if you look at a place like the United Arab Emirates, uh, very inexpensive drones have defeated what appear to be some of the world's most expensive air and missile defenses and put a number of air strips, airports out of business. You have to understand that in the Gulf there are all sorts of international conglomerates especially a lot of Indian conglomerates that do huge huge business through the United Arab Emirates and uh Dubai. All of this is effectively being shut down. You also have millions of people there are about 4.6 6 million Indians who own businesses in the Emirates who are now stranded and they are a critical component of the economy. In addition to those are, you know, hundreds of thousands, probably millions of Europeans, Americans, and others who are stranded right now. You've got to cross the mountains down to Moscott in order to find an aircraft that'll take you out. I think the damage that's being done to the oil infrastructure is only now really beginning. We have evidence that some oil refineries have been struck, particularly in Saudi Arabia. I think we're going to see more of that. So, we're at the beginning of what is ostensively a long regional war and we haven't even begun to assess the possibility that others may become involved because this emergency created by the Gulf War affects India. It affects Northeast Asia. It affects Turkey. It affects Europe. uh effectively the entire world is now focused on this uh war that is ostensibly between Israel and Iran. Now the funny thing about this war is that it did not begin with a joint IsraeliAmerican assault. It began with an Israeli attack and Senator or I shouldn't say Senator, Secretary of State Rubio seems to have told the group of eight, these are senators in the uh US Senate that are part of the Senate Armed Services Committee that Israel began the attack. We had not been informed of it. We were not warned that they were going to do this. We although we knew it was always a possibility and we decided to simply join in because we were not yet satisfied with our posture at the beginning of this. So we seem to have come late to the party and now we've begun to feel the full impact of all these missiles. Number of missiles have been fired at ships that have yet to strike them and we know that three F-15 uh fighters were downed. We're attributing that to friendly fire, although there are some disputes about that in terms of uh others in the region and the world who seem to think the Iranians did it. In any case, we lost three F-15s. We didn't lose the pilots. But we have lost American sailors, soldiers, sailors, airmen, or marines. We just don't know how many. We've admitted, I think, to three or four, but I suspect there's more than that. So the question is where are we headed? I think we're headed into a long campaign and you know you listen I'm sure you listen to statements by Secretary Hegsth and President Trump laced with all this business about this the state sponsor of terrorism and how it has to be it will have to submit ultimately to Israel in the United States. I think these are very incautious and stupid statements. Uh they don't comport with reality. I mean, frankly, Glenn, if we were interested in combating radical Islam, we would probably be focused on Pakistan and certainly on Syria right now, which is headed by the remnants of ISIS and Alqaeda. Uh those two states don't seem to come up for discussion very much. And Pakistan in particular has been the sort of incubator of radical Islam and Islamist terrorism for a long time. So, this is really about Israel's interest in destroying Iran and removing it as an obstacle to Israeli military hijgemony or Jewish supremacy, however you want to put it. Uh, and we're we're into it. We're committed to it. And I think ultimately logistics will probably have a big impact because we will eventually run out of missiles. And I think we're on the road already because I just don't think President Trump or his adviserss really believe that they would end up at a long war with Iran and that's where they are right now. >> Well, besides from the military targets, we as you mentioned, we also seen attacks on ports, oil refiner, oil refineries, shipping, airports, uh some hotels. There seems to be several civilian targets as well. uh how how do you did this take you by surprise and how do you see the I guess the cost benefit to Iran here because on one hand they want to inflict as much pain as possible but I assume they don't want to pull in too many other external actors uh because doesn't this risk um entering into the war the Gulf states or even the Europeans suggested that they would come in and you know defend their assets their bases and their allies u how how do you assess Uh I guess the calculations on the Iranian side. >> I think the Iranian know that the Emirates and the Saudis have played a duplicitous game that they have tried to play both sides to the middle as we say. Uh so I don't think the Iranians regret any of that and I think they want to make the world feel pain because they are feeling acute pain. So that's not surprising in the least. As far as the Europeans are concerned, they've known from the very beginning Iran presents no threat. You know, that that was laughable when we insisted on this installation in Romania, this anti-bballistic missile installation on the grounds that we were protecting our European allies from Iranian missile attack. Nobody believed in that. That's nonsense. As far as Europeans intervening to do anything, I think the British have sent their F-22s. Whether or not they've done anything, I don't know. Now, I know that their bases on Cyprus have been struck and I assume probably put out of action. So, I I don't know what to make of European intervention. I think that's more hot air, but we'll see. They could certainly send some ships, but then again, they would be in harm's way, and it all depends on whether or not the European peoples are going to sign on for this. Again, you've got to distinguish Iran and the Shia from the vast majority of is is Muslims uh who are Sunni and Arabs and Turks. And I think the Europeans are a little more sophisticated than the Americans. They do not mix them up. They understand Iran is different and Iran's interests are different. And Iran as a civilizational state, Persia is a different is an entirely different animal from the rest of these postworld war I artificial constructs. So, you know, we'll we'll see. But I I I don't expect much out of the Europeans. I'm I'm more concerned about the Chinese and the Russians. And when I say concerned, I mean I wonder how long they sit on the sidelines and allow this to go on because this is not in their interests. Obviously, they want Iran to survive. Uh Iran is a critical component of bricks. It's part of the belt and road initiative. The Turks want Iran to survive. Uh I haven't heard any complaints out of the Turks about destroying our air base at Iniric. uh because they know that that's our air base and they have always been reticent to allow us to operate from that base against anyone we wanted in the region. So I think we're we're seeing the world sort of move in an entirely new new direction. I would argue this is the end of Sykes Pico. I think the maps are going to change. I'll be very surprised if all these family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf survive in their current form. Uh, I think the damage that's being done economically is going to stay with us for some period of time. The Indians have already turned to purchase oil again from the Russians and that makes perfectly perfect sense for them. I'm surprised they ever went along with us to begin with. The dollar is losing air speed and altitude. Uh, I mean economically this is a catastrophe. uh financially for us I think it's a disaster. It's going to take more time but over time it's going to get worse for us. Remember we are the ones that have been boasting to the world about how powerful we are and how the entire world needs to shake in fear of the American military power. Well then people are going to expect us to perform. Iran, on the other hand, hasn't got to do anything other than survive. As long as Iran survives, and the longer the war lasts, the weaker we look, the weaker Israel looks, and the stronger Iran looks. And I think Iran is going to survive. I don't see any evidence that it's going to suddenly pick up the phone, call Washington, and beg for mercy. Don't see that happening. So, we're in a real we're in a real trick. I think at the end of the day, we're going to be swept out of the region. Look at what's happening in Iraq right now. The Shia are rising and the Iraqi government wants us out of the country. It's wanted us out for years. I think we're going to have to get out. I don't think anybody living in the Gulf is going to want us in in proximity to any of their harbors or or airports or anything else. So, I I think this is a developing disaster for us. than Israel. Israel's Iron Dome isn't working very well. And although we are definitely trying to fire missiles in support of Israel at air, air and missile defense, the is the Iranians seem to have moved technologically much further than we anticipated. They are now able to deliver missiles that have decoys that you know produce multiple warheads and then the real dangerous missile that you're trying to penetrate with flies through while we are preoccupied with decoys. So this this is not working terribly well for us. But the interesting part is in the west the media as always is showing us a a wonderful picture of American and Israeli military success. It's quite astonishing. I don't think that's the picture the rest of the world is is beginning to get. Yeah. recently checked the media and one gets impression they're already planning for the new government to take over and uh how relations will be shifted and uh it's quite strange how the narratives deviate so much from reality but um but this is then looking to be a long war so how do you expect the United States and Israel for that sake to be exhausted because you said you assume they will be exhausted first and then I guess it's over. But will they run out of interceptive missiles? Are they have the limited ability to hit Iran? Uh or what is it that you expect to first give in or or is it simply that the Gulf States will uh demand that the United States put an end to it? Uh well, all of the ports that we habitually use to replenish our naval forces and to reload our naval forces with missiles and rockets and so forth. All of those have been destroyed. Other words, we're forced to fall back all the way to India, which is quite a distance from the region. Now, we we can fall back to Italy at this point. I think creep may be just out of reach. Uh I hope so. But but the point is that everything that we were accustomed to doing now has to change. War has become a much more arduous task for us. Remember they've not only shut down the straits of Hormuz, they've also shut down the Suez Canal for all intents and purposes because they've shut down the Red Sea. So the commercial picture is grim. The military picture is problematic and I don't think that we can manufacture missiles at a sufficiently fast rate to keep up with their expenditure. And we have been supplying all the time vast numbers of missiles to Ukraine. And now we're beginning to feel the pain because so much of that is gone. It won't be long, perhaps a few more days before we begin to more economically expend our missiles. And that means that you can't shoot down most of what's being shot at you. Remember, you're talking about shooting at least two or three missiles at every incoming missile. And we still can't target successfully and knock down hypersonic missiles. And a lot of these missiles are coming in at Mach 3, four, five, and six. Uh that those speeds are beyond our technological capability to to defeat. So I think logistically, yes, we're going to have a huge problem and we may pause. Now whether or not uh the Russians and the Chinese are willing to mediate or the Indians, I think India would probably be the best choice for mediation. They are after all neutral despite Mod's recent visit to Israel, which I think was illconsidered. uh but nevertheless uh Modi and and India have cultural ties to Iran. U Sanskrit and Indian civilization are a component part of Persian civilization itself. So I I think there's an opportunity for the Indians to bridge the gap between us, the Israelis and Iran. But we'll have to see. Right now I think Iran is not dissolving into chaos. Uh yes, we killed the supreme leader Ayatollo Kabane, but I don't see any evidence that that has disrupted unity of effort and command and control. So, and the other advantage that the Iranians have, and this is an important one, is that much of their capability is widely dispersed. That makes it very hard for us. And even on the best day, you know, historically, we've had a lot of trouble dealing with anything that's mobile. So, you know, I I just don't see in the near term any good news at all. And I hope that we are talking in Washington to others who may be able to help mediate some sort of end to this catastrophe. But I know that over the weekend we apparently expressed an interest in negotiation. I don't know through what channels, but apparently that came from the Trump White House and the Iranians said, "Not only know, but hell no. this is they're because they're not ready to put an end to this war then. Uh I mean all it seems a bit foolish perhaps to put an end to it now given that um you know uh the the other side could simply just replenish their missiles and come back again in a few weeks. But uh what do you think the Iranians would want out of this war before they would uh uh let it come to an end? I don't know what they will say, but I think what they want is to get us out of the region. And I think we are going to oblige because this this war is something that we've helped to bring on. And we've aligned ourselves with Israel, which is a par pariah state. In any case, meaning Israelis are all already widely hated and despised for their program of mass murder and expulsion in Gaza. uh now this war is only going to make those those matters much much worse. So I think the Turks are now going to feel much more comfortable asking us to leave. Uh and I think as I pointed out earlier in the Gulf, we will be invited to leave. In other words, I think we're sacrificing our position in the region strategically for the benefit of Israel. But I don't think Israel is going to benefit. And you know, this sort of thing is going to have widespread repercussions. If you're sitting on the Korean peninsula, you're already tired of the American military presence. You don't see the need for it because the Chinese are not interested in starting a war. And the Chinese have made it very clear to the Koreans that if they do anything, they will not be helped in any way by China. I think the Koreans are probably saying it's time for the Americans to leave and then we need to work with China to reunite the peninsula and come to some sort of stable solution on the peninsula. I think the Japanese are watching this and beginning to wonder just how tightly aligned with us they want to be. I guess my point is do we look strong, powerful and invincible and vulnerable or not? And unfortunately for us, we need to look invincible and invulnerable. Now, we've opened ourselves up to all sorts of extraordinary problems that we might have otherwise avoided. You know, military power is one of those things where until you use it, nobody really knows what you've got. Remember in 1940, everyone was saying, "Thank God for the French army, the largest army in Europe, the best equipped, more tanks, more this, more everything." that went away pretty quickly. Uh so did the British army. It didn't last very long. I I think we're living in a world today where the old era is ending and a new one is beginning. And there will be new rules for the future. And those are not going to be written in Washington. They're going to be written, I think, largely in Asia and to some extent in Europe and the Middle East. But it's going to be written by indigenous peoples, not us. That's the long-term forecast. How long will this take is anybody's guess, but right now the Iranians are feeling a lot of pain, but they're inflicting a lot of pain, and there's no incentive for them to stop. Well, if one would want to kick the United States out of the Middle East, I guess, well, you can go for three areas. One would be of course the military presence and the military bases are being pummeled but the second of course is the economic interest but the third would be what you also alluded to the US credibility that is as u yeah all powerful and uh essentially all countries that wants to have security should align itself with the US. How how do you see the wider I guess geopolitical ramifications of this though of US credibility being shattered in this way? Because this was seemingly what opposite of what Trump wanted. He he wanted to build up a very uh well his whole approach I think is to show a lot of strength and hope that adversaries yeah stand down. And I thought this was also kind of the assumption that he would mount all this military force as Witkov said Trump was very surprised they hadn't capitulated yet given that they saw all of this US military might. But what what happens now if it becomes evident that uh it's the United States that has to walk this whole thing back and find something of a dignified exit? Well, you're you're talking about an ignominious retreat, which is the last thing in the world that uh Donald Trump wants. We need to talk about, you know, how do we get there from here? I mean, the problem is that we we've already displayed in the first 24 to 36 hours our tactical expertise, our tactical supremacy, if you will. We managed to kill a number of key personalities, not only the supreme leader. Tactics win battles, but ultimately strategy wins wars. We we have no strategy. When everybody asked, well, what's the purpose? Well, it sounded like it was regime change. But I think we've discovered at this point that regime change hasn't worked. Uh this is a large country, 93 million people, size of Western Europe. It seems to be holding together. There's no reason to believe that it won't stay together at this stage. And the strategy is what then? If you can't remove the government, what do you do? Do you uh continue to lob missiles and rockets at it in the hopes that somebody will say, "Please, please stop. We'll do whatever you want." Maybe that's the goal. I don't think that's a reasonable goal. I don't think anyone has thought through the criticality of ending the war. How do you end it? And the thing that's funny is that I listened to the Secretary of State of War say this morning, "We didn't start this war, but we're going to end it." Well, I think we did start this war. The Israelis started it and we jumped on board. Uh all of the things that we continue to cite about the reasons for going to war are specious, but the most most depressingly stupid reasons are ones that go back 47 years ago or 40 years ago. uh you know the numbers of people that have actually you could whose death you can trace back to Iran is in the low hundreds. It's not a large number. And the Iranians did not behave during the Iraq war any differently than we would have behaved if there were a similar war in Mexico. Other words, you do what you can to deter the force that's on the ground in the neighboring country from entering yours. Yeah, the other thing is that we have I think 4,000 missiles left in our inventory. Something in that in that regard. Maybe those are different kinds, cruise and ballistic. I don't know. Uh Iran has about 450,000. So that's uh that's quite a gap. You know, the other thing is you can kill a leader, but you can't bomb a civilization into submission. And we've never understood what we were dealing with in Iran. Everybody talks about Iran as some sort of radical Islamic state. Nothing could be further from the truth. Iran is ultimately Persia and that civilization is much older. And Persian civilization, Persian thinking, Persian philosophy, Persian art and history, all of those things have been asserting their dominance over the last 25 to 30 years. And the people of Iran have largely walked away from this more ideologically rigid form of Islam. It's not they didn't hate Kum and they didn't dance in the streets when he was killed. On the contrary, people saw him as a very I think humble and decent human being. He sacrificed his life. He he stayed where he knew he would be killed. Killing him has made him a martyr that even people that don't like Islam can honor. So I think we've galvanized the place against us. We've mobilized the people against us. I don't see anything good coming out of this. Uh and and this is this is the problem with us. We we project our values, our thinking, our experience onto others. Well, our experience may hold up in connection with European experience, but it doesn't match the experience of people in the Middle East and Asia or Africa for that matter or even Latin America. So, that's why I think, you know, we're we're in a different world right now and we don't even understand it. The the world is changing and the old world is is ending and we're fighting the emergence of the new world. I think we could say that, you know, the future of the world is not being written by us anymore. And what is victory in this war? Well, I think truthfully, victory is stability. And we've done everything we possibly could to destroy stability. Stability in markets, stability in trade, stability in commerce, stability in in interstate confidence. You know, we've once again demonstrated conclusively that we're completely unreliable. You know, I' I've been saying for months that the decision to attack Iraq is made. And it was. It was only a question of when, never if, yet we continued with the fiction that there were negotiations underway. This has hurt us with Russia. It's hurt us with China. It's destroyed us in the Middle East. We are rapidly following Israel into this corner uh reserved for pariah states. You know I I you know for instance the the Indians depend on 2.6 million barrels of oil uh from the Persian Gulf to flow into their ports every day. You know when that closes every Indian family is going to effectively be made to pay a war tax that they never voted for. A $10 rise in crude means 15 billion dollars uh in terms of the burden on the Indian economy. They're not the only ones. This but we don't think in those terms. We don't think of what the impact is on others. There's no sense uh of this sort of thing. And we're going to pay I think we're going to pay a terrible price, Glenn. And it's only just beginning. When Trump uh came to power a year ago, he I mean he seemed to have some of the right ideas. Again, one of my concerns about the United States is it seems that the the strategy of the past 30 years doesn't work anymore. That is the United States exhaust itself and then incentivizes the other great powers to collectively balance it. So from my perspective made sense for the US to pull a bit back then it can strengthen its position and the Eurasian powers will to a greater degree balance each other. And it looked like Trump was heading in that direction. So pull back from Europe, from the Middle East, focused instead on the Western Hemisphere and uh and well it all made sense. Doesn't mean the Venezuelan operation was uh you know stroke of genius or anything but at least you know he looked towards u uh yeah the homeland if you will. Uh what happened here? How how I mean after a year he hasn't uh he's still in Ukraine. Uh again that that's one of the problems now I think they gave away a lot of the uh air defenses and other weapons which could have been used uh but also now cementing US position in in the Middle East perhaps not cementing it but uh spending a lot of resources uh how do you explain how well what seemed to be a strategy yeah doesn't seem to be followed >> well first of all there is no strategy You know, this is the problem. This new document that was published as a was supposed to represent new national military strategy. There's no real evidence we followed any of it. You know, focusing on the Western Hemisphere does not and should not mean invading other people's countries in the Western Hemisphere. You know, this is just ridiculous. And you know, again, it's sort of similar to what I said before. you you're talking about radical Islam and Islamist terrorism and you attack Iran, it doesn't fit. If you turned around and said we're going to focus on the danger in Pakistan, the danger in Syria, that would be plausible, but not in Iran. At the same time, you say we've got a huge drug problem. Uh we have a problem with human and drug trafficking. The locust for that, the main locus for it is Mexico. That is what is most dangerous to us. But we attack Venezuela when there was no real reason to do so. The Venezuela was willing to do business with us. And then we kidnapped the president and his wife. We paid millions of dollars to pay off various people in the country to let us in. And then we talked about this brilliant military operation. Well, I'm sure it was brilliant. Uh, it's a police operation, a paramilitary police operation enabled by the US military. It's not a strategy. It's not really an outcome. We don't control Venezuela. Venezuela controls Venezuela. And they can wait us out almost indefinitely. And that's exactly what's happening right now. In the meantime, we've changed nothing on the border with Mexico. Oh, it's better than it was. But we haven't stopped the drugs and the human trafficking from pouring into our country. It's still coming in. It's not coming in as in the same rate as it was, but it's still coming in. And billions of dollars in in terms of hard cash are still flowing south into Mexico. So, there's an awful lot that's just fiction. And I don't think there is any strategy because any soberminded American would have looked at the Middle East and say, "This place does not need American military power. If we involve ourselves here, we'll blow it up." Now, that may suit Israel, at least temporarily, but I've never believed that that was good for Israel. I don't see any evidence that this thing called greater Israel that they talk about openly, which involves the acquisition of territory all around Israel to make Israel into this great state with what six, seven million people in it that are Jews has any chance of success. And I think what it has done is it has offended, angered, alienated virtually everyone in the region. So that I think before this is over, the question we'll be trying to answer is does Israel survive all of this? That's the real question. I'm not sure that it will. Iran will survive. It's been with us certainly for 2,700 years. You know, it's like going to war with China. Will China survive? Of course, it will survive. It's been around for 5,000 years. So will India. You know, the question is if you involve yourselves in these stupid wars is whether or not we Americans can survive it. We're relative newcomers to the world. We're not a civilizational state, per se. So all of these things are going to come up for discussion over the weeks ahead. And I think that for the moment, President Trump is just going to order everybody to continue to attack and bomb and and target and strike. That's all he can do. He can threaten more sanctions, but I think that's lost its bite to a large extent. I think that's responsible for the hatred and hostility inside of Iran towards us. Uh so I see nothing good coming of this for us. I think Persia though will reemerge from this as a much stronger and more influential entity. You say Israel may not survive. How would it go under you think? Is it uh from the US pulling uh out or is it economic consequences from this war? People will simply flee or do you see them being militarily defeated or what what is the path? All of the above. I mean, just go back and listen to Mr. Netanyahu explain his so-called seven fronts. You know, that's not sustainable. Uh, supposedly the Israelis have now mobilized another 100,000 reserveists. It'll be interesting to see how many of them show up for duty. There is talk in Israel about invading Lebanon uh to go after Hezbollah because you can't do everything from the air. at at some point Israel is going to end up exhausted and tapped out much like Ukraine. Today the question is not will Russia survive, it's whether or not Ukraine survives. What will it be? It it certainly won't be what it was. So does that mean that Israel survives in some form? Maybe. But it won't be what it was or what it is today. You know, the these things depend on a number of things. But you've got to look at the trend lines. The trend lines right now are not favorable. >> Well, what do you see now happening though over the days and weeks? Uh I mean, what is the possible escalation? I I don't see necessarily what the US can do differently except perhaps you know attack well continue what what it's doing but how do you see Iran possibly escalating and uh given that as you said before the conflicts already very quickly become regionalized do you see a possibility of it becoming global uh well well under what condition do you think the the Chinese or the Russians would join I mean if they're watching what we're watching they they might conclude that the Iranians are taking care of things on their own. >> Well, if uh the Israelis decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon or any nuclear weapon with the goal of stopping Iran's relentless missile attacks, I think that will change the situation dramatically. Uh I'm not sure Israel will survive it. Uh the Russians, the Chinese at that point would definitely intervene. and make it clear to us that if this is not stopped and continues that they will actively join the fight against Israel and us. And remember, I I don't think the Israelis are going to do something like this immediately. I'm a I'm forecasting that at some point, the Israelis say, you know, if the is if if Iran will not stop, we will launch a nuclear weapon. That's kind of what I think might happen. Well, we don't have any control over Israel. Israel controls us. That's very clear. So if we can't control Israel and Israel does this, then Russia and China intervene, well, they would intervene at a point in time where we've exhausted our inventories. So how do we how do we put up a significant fight? you know, until this point in time, all during the the the proxy war in Ukraine, behind the scenes and even in public, people raised the issue of we we can't go too far. We have to think in terms of our war reserves. But eventually over time those that caution was thrown to the wind because there was no evidence that Russia was being defeated, that Russia was being destroyed, that the sanctions were doing their work. And so we we decided we'll put more and more and more into the Ukraine war. Well, that's failed miserably and they've exhausted their war reserves in Germany and France and Britain and other countries. We have done the same thing with much of our munitions. So if you've done that and then all of a sudden the Russians and the Chinese say that's it, stop. Israel's used a nuclear weapon. We will not tolerate that. And if they don't stop, we may use a nuclear weapon in response. That's always a possibility. What do we do? I think we have to tell the Israelis, you've got to stop. And if you won't stop, we're leaving. I think we'll get to that point. And that's not a an end state that we've planned for. We've planned for the other end state. Iran and uh its uh evil leaders who are responsible for terrorism and threatening the whole world will have to submit. No, they don't and they won't. It's difficult to predict how this will develop. I mean, if you look towards the Ukraine war, how cautious the rhetoric was in the beginning, how cautious the West was in terms of sending weapons and where we are today when you have a a German chancellor bragging about how they or we have caused untold casualties in Russia. I mean, this is uh you you didn't see this uh in the beginning of 2022. So given how fast this war with Iran is escalating, it's uh yeah, definitely possible. Uh just the last question, do do you see any uh possibilities or any pathways for Trump to to put an end to this war or is it simply impossible because the Iranians need to, I guess, evict the Americans from the region? Netanyahu is in charge. So listen carefully to Netanyahu and you will know what Trump is going to do. Let's be frank. He's taking his orders from Netanyahu. He is not a free agent. He has people at home pushing him in particular directions. As a result, I don't see anything changing near-term in Washington at all. Everyone will simply say, "Well, we'll continue to bomb. We'll continue to launch missile strikes and eventually we'll be successful." We did that for 78 days over Kosovo. And ultimately, it was not the air and missile war that persuaded the Serbs to get out of Kosovo. It was Russia's decision to pull the plug on the Serbs and say, "No, we can't provide you with fuel and food and medicine over the winter." That happened because Stro Talbat, the deputy secretary of state, went to Moscow, negotiated a deal, as President Trump likes to say, and the deal involved some numbers of promises we made to persuade the Russians to do that. The Russians now, in retrospect, regard that as a moment of deep shame in their history. And indeed, I think they're right. But I don't think they had much choice at that point. Well, they have a choice now. The Chinese have a choice. The rest of the world is no longer as weak as it once was. This is part of the ground swell of of new changes in our civilization and world that the American government doesn't want to accept. We we we are in a in a fight at this point when it comes to missiles and rockets and conventional capabilities with almost a near peer as they say. You know, that's something we we could never have imagined, you know, and I think President Trump has expressed shock and surprise, just as Mr. Whit said, that the Iranians had not already capitulated because from their standpoint, based on their experience in the New York real estate business, this kind of damage is so terrible that you cry uncle and and walk. You walk away. You submit. you sign the deal. Well, this is not real estate. This is not New York City. This is a a civilizational state that absolutely will not surrender to the demands of the Jewish state in the Middle East that are then backed by American military power. So, I don't think uh we're going to get very far with President Trump at this time. Maybe down the line something will break. The one the one area that we haven't talked about that everybody needs to watch carefully is our bond market especially the 10-year bond and the yield will rise look at dd dollararization look at our financial weakness those things are important uh I think we could end up in a very serious financial crisis certainly worse than what we faced back in 2007 and 8 that is probably the other factor in this multivaried equation that could fundamentally drive us out. But whatever whatever ultimately happens, we're seeing the end of the old Middle East. We're seeing the end of American military hijgemony and political dominance. That's what we're watching.