Raw Transcript
Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched an attack against Iran as we are all aware of. Now, there's a bunch of things here that people are not aware of that we're going to go through so that you can understand exactly what's going on here. But I think it's important to note oil has spiked, crude oil has spiked, gold has spiked, and why is the S&P flat? What is the big deal about this straight being closed? And what is everybody getting wrong about it? We have to go through this and we have to go through it. Now, quick reminder, 27.5% of you do not subscribe to this channel yet. Watch these videos. All these videos are connected. They come out at different times. They start on Saturday. What we go over here is extremely actionable for the next day. Click subscribe. Click all notifications. Let's get to it. Now, a lot of people asked why I didn't cover this on Saturday. You didn't have enough details. And I wanted to get into this and then we're going to talk about what's actually going to move on it, what's not going to move because there's a lot of people that are really confused here about what is going to move and what's not. We're going to get into it very concise and to the point and how to trade this for the week. And so, let's do it. US uh Iran conflict theater. This is by Time magazine. Red is US Israel and green is Iran's response. No idea why they get green and we get red, but whatever. I think that this is super interesting. If you look at where Iran is and then you look at what's around it, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and then you look at where the bombing was and look at where they attacked back. Kuwait, Bahan, Qatar, UAE. I think it's fascinating some of these areas and I think this was really unexpected. So that's the first thing. Take a look at this. Let's look at what was attacked. Social media on Sunday, US Central Command shared a list of all the locations that had been struck. Dubai International Airport, Kuwait International Airport, uh Zed International Airport of Dubai, Iraq's International Airport, Fairmont Palm Hotel in Dubai, Burge Alra Hotel Dubai, Crown Plaza Hotel, Port of Dubai. It's it's very clear what they're going after and one of the reasons why oh they're allies. They're trying to disrupt and destabilize Dubai more than anything else. This was really very aggressive and it's very interesting that that seems to be the area that they're going after, doesn't it? Uh obviously residential areas in Qatar. Now this is what happened today at 3:00 when you saw that knee-jerk reaction in the market. You have the straight of Hummus here. A lot of people don't understand that about 20% of all capital really is going through there of oil, etc. It's huge. Right now at 3:00, Iran said nothing is safe. We're shutting it down and they have the ability to shut it down because you can see how tight it is in this area. It's like 22 miles right in here and they control this area. So, it becomes a real problem. Now, this commander came out and said this today. They were discussing it before, but they're saying they're doing it. Uh, the straight has been closed. Any vessels attempting woodway would be set ablaze. Well, that's not great. So, now you have an issue here where they are going to shut this down. But this was the interesting part about this. China obviously comes out and weighs in and says, "Hey, is there a way that we can stop doing this? We're trying to be the peacemakers." And they were actually trying to do this before because it destabilizes everybody and cause oil to run up. But this is what I noticed and I think it's the first point that we should share for our purposes. You're going to see the mark right here. It was the big move in crude and then in gold and then in the ES. But if you drop a line right there on that area once that news came out and now we're just going to drop it cuz you can see exactly where it was. Crude spiked then rolled over. Gold rallied then pulled back. ES fell down and then it never went any lower. This is not acting like a market that either one believes it or two does not have that discounted in. So they either don't believe they're going to have the ability to shut it down or two it's already factored in. Either way, what everyone is expecting to have happen, I don't believe is going to happen. And let me show you this. Now, for our purposes, this is USO and it's a US oil fund. And we can just take a look right from this breakout. The one thing that I would say about this breakout that I think so important, so important is that you never even got over the open today. If you were going to see follow-through, you would have seen it today. And you're not seeing that. And that is somewhat of a concern if you're long crude and you're expecting certain names to go up. And let's cover those names and then I want to tie this back. But we were long DHT. And for me looking at this, the open was sold. The news hits and you have this little blip and I this is the first thing that I think people are really getting wrong. Here's your blip on DHT and then all of a sudden it pushes pushes again and you're lifting but you're not really lifting on the news. So, if you go and take a look at STNG as well, and we're just going to look at some of these big dogs for a moment, and you can see off the open, did you have net buyers? No. What they did is exactly what we said they were going to do pre-market. If you don't follow us, I'd watch our pre-markets. But what did they do? They opened you up, got everybody giddy, and then they just knocked it right down. So, we get rid of the pre the post nonsense, gapped it open, brought it all the way down, and if you mark it off from the previous close, you never could get over that previous close. So the one thing that I think people are getting wrong here is they're running into these names as if they know something. This has been pretty telegraphed according to if you look at the ways the tankers are acting and it's not just there. There's certain names that are acting a little bit better like FRO came all the way down to that level. And so what you'd want to do if you're like hey Boomer I think this is going to continue. You have to go after the names that are acting the best. So when you look at these names what are they? It would be FRO and then because they held their close and then DHT got above it. But you're not seeing this huge spike where everyone's got to get in because of this and that news is out there and people are looking for this this news. So the first thing that I would take away from this is are you going to see a rush into the tankers from here on out? I don't think so. I a matter of fact I think the action may actually be causing the spike and might actually be the high. So that's the first thing that I noticed a little bit different here. The second thing is and then I want to tie this together with some things that are going on that will be very helpful for tomorrow. I do think that you want to watch the high on the tankers and they all very look very very similar. So if we take a look at them there's they're all very very much the same where you have these 90 or 92 RH or RSIs you're at the 4 hour which is what I'm using and you're rolling over. Am I going out and shorting these suckers? No. But the gains that we're seeing were predicated upon this. It is very clear that this has probably been the most telegraphed secret out there and I think that's important. Number two that I think is really important is gold. If you take a look at gold, gold held its own today. But you know what really started to fall apart here was silver. And that bifurcation that I've been talking about and like waving my fist in the air and saying it's coming. Uh looks like it's finally coming. So silver broke out higher high on Friday. Lower high today. Higher high. Higher high. Higher high. So we're getting the bifurcation of gold and silver. Does that mean that it's over for silver? No. But I do think it means that gold is going to outperform now. And I think that's exactly what we've been thinking is going to happen. It looks like that's finally coming to fruition. But does that mean that you want to buy silver along with it? No. I think you want to lean more into the gold side of the market. The way the other part that people are going to get really confused about this is that they're going to tie this together with TNX and think that they should be buying bonds, but that move's already happened and you're already seeing them sell the long end. So, what we have here, in my opinion, is one of the most telegraphed moves that we've seen out there from a military standpoint. But that doesn't mean that we can't take advantage of the moves from a trading standpoint. I'll show you exactly what I mean by this. Now, let's get to where we should look at opportunity. And the first thing we have to understand is the range that we're in. So, if you attended the pre-market today, which are free, they start at 8:15 or I try to get them at 8:15, but they're always available for replay for 48 hours. And one of the key things I'm going to do here is just show you we have a volume profile that's tied to the peak and we keep getting to that put wall at 600 and we will not break it. Now on Friday we could have broken on PPI and we didn't. Today we have a war going on and you're seeing a huge movement here. Huge problems and you're not seeing that. Let me show you exactly what you did. You gapped down today right to that level exactly to that level and then you held. And this is what we were going over pre-market publicly, not even on the private uh community. I did a live trade there, a lot of them this morning, but it's these extreme moves and then you know where your level is and then you're holding from there and there's whether it's futures, options or stock, as long as you know where you're at and then you coincide that with your levels, it's very easy and all you're doing is picking off those areas. So, you're understanding where the institutions are and you're understanding that the option market makers are holding that 600 level. Now, if they were to let it go, then they let it go. They didn't let it go. They fought for it and they held it and they've been doing that. So, that provided stability to people from trading. Now, if you go and take a look at the spy, 675 is the put wall there. And you can see it's down here. What did it do? Gapped below everything. Really just a liquidity grab and it gave you an opportunity. This is how you have to trade in this market. Everyone keeps saying to me, "Oh, I want to do swing trading." You can, but you better be in the lower beta names. And we've gone through this in another video where it's the lower beta stuff that seems to be holding very specific names. We talked about COR is one that we bought in the community, paid 224 for it to 299. So a lot of these kinds of names, the lower beta stuff, the stuff that's not as volatile will grind and you're allowed to and you're allowed to have a little more fluidity with those and optionality, but they will let you hold those. If you're out there trying to hold Micron right now, I I wish you the best. And you you have names like STX that broke down today. By the way, guys, I'm going to go off on one quick tangent here. You got a 1222 cross and you're rolling. So, you're losing STX. You're losing Western Digital here. By the way, you closed under the 22 for the first time. I'll clean this all up today and you can just say it. And after hours, you have some dumpster fires floating down the river with a bunch of raccoons. You're down about 80 points on MDB. We will get there, but I want to tie this all together so that you can understand how how I'm viewing it. you have these longerterm trades that may play out because of what's happening with Iran. So if we walk through that, do we think a lot of people are going to go to hotels in Dubai right now? Probably not. Do we think oil is going to go higher? I think oil either goes higher or stays higher on average for longer. So let's say that oil doesn't go higher. But let's say that oil just stays here for a month instead of staying here for a month. So if you were to look at that and say, I think the average price of oil from here is going to be here. Well, that's 8% higher. Let's just say that it stays higher because of the tensions. Well, who's affected by that? Well, your cruise lines are going to be affected by that. When they came in today, NCH, which is a name I actually own for long-term turnaround, that came in today. RCL, that came in today. Broke the 55. All right. Who else is affected by it? Jets. They're going to be affected by it. Well, why would they be affected by it? Because the price of oil is twothirds of their profit essentially. Not only that, are is how many people are going, you know, where I really want to go, I've always wanted to see Dubai. I mean, are you heading there right now? Probably not. Now, you might not have those problems on the domestic flights, but it doesn't matter because they all train trade like they share one brain. So, you have to think about that. Even though other airlines are going to be affected by that, but you have articles on there where they're trying to get citizens out of the country and they're discussing this and how they're going to do it, that is not an area where it's going to be conducive to watching travel. So then you would start thinking about the travel names like Expedia or Bookings and you would start thinking to yourself, are they going to be affected? Probably. Probably won't be affected a little bit by this because you're not going to feel or see that huge surge of traffic. And I think that this is important to get. What is not the way to look at this is to put yourself in a position here where you're saying to yourself, okay, what I really need to do in looking at all of this is the following. I need to go with and do what everybody else is doing. I need to go out there right now and buy the tankers. You have to start thinking about what are the the after effects of this and where is it going. So to me that becomes the buildout and then you start thinking about things like XLE and how much of that's in there or OI uh H and how much is that's in there. That's one way to go. The other way to go is what are the honey badgers as I refer to them? The ones today that just did not care. And that's what if anyone's ever seen that YouTube clip it's absolutely hysterical. But the honey badgers, they just they just don't care. Market's down. This is what's happening. They're the names you look at. Now, you can look at honey badgers from two different ways. We'll refer to them as this is my level and I'm going to hold my level and I don't care what's going on. So, when we looked at something like Micron, we were already lined up today when we were in trading like we already have our levels marked off. I don't hope and pray. I know where my levels are. I watch my levels and my levels are usually money. And so that means to me that I know where they're at and that they should hold. Now, what you're saying are two different things here. Number one, I know where my core levels are. I know if I crack them, what I have to look for if I crack those levels. And the other thing that I'm going to just save you a bunch of time with today, you had retests like crazy. So, even if you missed the first move, the retest game was really strong today. The reason I'm spending time on this is because you're going to think that this is over. And I'm going to tell you that you have so much headline risk just this week alone that it's absolutely crazy. Take a look at this trade and then we'll go forward. Micron 400 huge. I bought I bought heavy push. Do it. Trim rest break even cost 400 up six trim up a trimmed up 10 and a half trimmed 400's money man. It is so money. Up 12 trim down to a third. Al 100%. Thank you very much. Now, what I'm doing there is a simple technique. I don't need moving averages. I don't need anything. I know where my a I know where my trade is. I know where I'm buying. I'm looking for the undercut. I can explain why I didn't even wait for the close. I didn't need to wait for the close. I am the close. Just making a joke. But the the thing about it was I'm scaling out because I know that I'm risky, right? I know that I have a problem. But then I just watch how it acts at that level where the people from that owned it the night before, they have no information. And if they want to hold, that's fine. But look at this retest. And then what these retests are doing for you are giving you opportunity through the RSI. Now, I didn't do a lot of these retests today because I did very well off the open. And frankly, I didn't like the way any of this news was coming out or any of the way that the news was acting. So, I tend to stay away from that. But my advice would be to mark critical levels on the names that you feel are the honey badgers out there that just do not care. And it's pretty clear what those names were today. Okay, if you go out there and take a look at like AOI, name that we've been trading, you know, you closed at 88 or 83 and you're opening at 110. I was able to sell some of this pre-market today at 115. It was like absolutely insane what this thing did. And some of the reason for that is because you had a conference today uh with with light was at Morgan Stanley and they're like, "We're the cat's pajamas." And Nvidia is saying, "We know you're the cat's pajamas. That's why we're giving you $2 billion." And I think that was an exact quote by Jensen said, "Light is the cat's pajamas. you you can you know quote me on that but uh you might want to look that one up verify it. So if you look at light and then you look at co and you see that entire space co and you look at that entire space and then you look at GLW you can see where all this is going. You could see why someone might be interested in Sienna this week to see how they do. Wink wink nudge nudge and then kind of go from there, right? That might be something to look at. But you never know. Earnings are a pickle. Um I do think there's a couple just worth mentioning when you look at something like MDB. This was just an absolute dumpster fire with a lower guide. You're going to want to watch that one tomorrow for sure. I want to keep the short, sweet, get it out, make it actionable. That's it.