2026 Will See Worst Market Crash Ever: 'There's Nothing Like It In History' Says Harry Dent

Here is a chronological list of distinct topics, claims, and statements from the transcript:

1. The current market bubble is unprecedented in history, lasting 16-17 years, and must eventually burst. There is nothing comparable to it in historical financial bubbles.
2. The interview will focus on why Harry Dent believes demographic trends will lead to a cliff, why a significant crash is imminent, why it has been delayed, its expected timing, and why it is predicted to be the largest in history.
3. Koshi is introduced as a regulated platform enabling trading on real-world events, from economic data to political outcomes. It allows traders to place money on events in all 50 US states and over 140 countries, with a promotional code offering $10 off a $100 deposit.
4. A recent publication by Harry Dent states that the current situation is the second great bubble in history, expected to burst and end very badly, with late odd years being ideal for market tops. The crash was initially predicted to occur between 2019 and late 2022.
5. The host asks why the anticipated major market crash has not yet happened, despite previous predictions and market volatility.
6. Massive government stimulus has prolonged the bubble. Two key cycles—the 39-year generational spending cycle (peaked 2007) and the 45-year technology and innovation cycle (peaked late 2019/early 2020)—are now both pointing downwards.
7. Over $30 trillion in stimulus, 1.5 times the average GDP, has been injected into the economy primarily through giant deficits, with a projected $2 trillion deficit this year alone. Despite this, representing 67% of GDP, economic growth struggles to reach 2%.
8. Economic cycles of booms and busts are natural and necessary, as is inflation followed by deflation. Governments attempting to counter these cycles is counterproductive, as innovation is most stimulated during economic downturns, not during stable growth.
9. The pursuit of perpetual 3% economic growth with 0-2% inflation is unsustainable long-term. By continually fighting natural cycles and preventing a crash that would clear debt and "zombie companies," the economy risks a future of mediocrity due to the accumulated burden.
10. Free market capitalism, the best system in history, requires both allowing success and quickly flushing out failures. Preventing failures, a concept understood by economist George Gilder, undermines the integrity of the free market system.
11. The host questions whether the significant decline (45-47%) in certain stocks like Oracle indicates that the "AI bubble" has already burst for specific sectors, rather than signaling a broader market collapse.
12. The current situation is an "everything bubble," unlike past bubbles that were confined to specific sectors like stocks in the Roaring Twenties. This 16-17 year bubble is unique because it started in 2009 with massive stimulus, preventing a natural recessionary cleansing, making it 100% artificial.
13. Had there been no artificial stimulus, the economy would have experienced a slow period; instead, it saw the greatest boom in history, particularly in stocks. When this artificial bubble finally bursts, the outcome is expected to resemble the 1929-1932 crash, during which leading companies declined by 89%.
14. The host inquires about the fundamental reasons behind the current "everything bubble."
15. The "everything bubble" is attributed to three main factors: the strong demographic force of the baby boom, significant technological advancements like computerization and the digitization of financial assets, and primarily, massive government stimulus since 2008-2009. This stimulus, involving money printing and the purchase of financial assets, disproportionately inflates stocks and real estate.
16. Governments failed to understand the 2008 downturn as a long-term generational shift, similar to previous periods like 1930-42 or 1968-82. Their misdiagnosis led to repeated, excessive stimulus, which created the current giant, artificial bubble instead of allowing natural market corrections.
17. Historically, every financial bubble, including those in commodities or famous historical events like the Mississippi and South Sea bubbles, has inevitably burst and led to dramatic declines. The current bubble is exceptionally large and similarly destined to burst.
18. The host notes Bitcoin's 30% decline from its peak and Harry Dent's previous assertion that Bitcoin often leads the stock market, asking what this current decline signifies.
19. Bitcoin's decline signals the beginning of the broader market correction, serving as the best leading indicator, with Nvidia being the second. Bubbles typically form around significant new technologies like crypto and AI as they enter the mainstream, which are positive developments, though markets tend to overproject their value.
20. This bubble is unique because it developed during an otherwise weak economic period and was sustained by unprecedented government intervention. Unlike past depressions, governments artificially fueled this "fake boom" with massive deficits and money printing, a phenomenon not seen in the 1930s or late 1800s.
21. An artificial bubble, entirely created by government intervention, is expected to result in a significantly worse crash than a natural bubble that merely overvalues a positive market trend.
22. The host questions how the NASDAQ and Nvidia can reach new all-time highs while Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its peak, asking what this discrepancy indicates about investor sentiment.
23. Bitcoin's current crash is consistent with expectations, occurring a couple of months ahead of the broader market. If the stock market does not follow Bitcoin's lead in early next year, it would be surprising. Bitcoin's well-defined four-year cycle suggests it will fall to at least $30,000 by late 2026, with a possible low of $15,600.
24. Historically, Bitcoin has never reached new highs in the year following its peak in the third year of its four-year cycle, instead crashing a minimum of 77%. If Bitcoin follows this pattern again, the highly overvalued stock market is expected to crash as well.
25. The host asks why January is considered an important market indicator and what specific signals to look for in early 2026.
26. An upward trend in the first week and the entire month of January is a decent leading indicator for a positive year in the stock market. If January 2026 shows such strength, it would suggest the bubble might be sustained for another year, complicating current predictions.
27. The current market is the second most overvalued in history according to Robert Shiller's CAPE indicator, surpassing even the Roaring Twenties. This extreme overvaluation indicates that the market is heading for a significant correction.
28. Major market bubbles are rare, historically occurring every 90 to 94 years, and the current period marks the peak of this specific cycle.
29. The 90-year bubble cycle is linked to the largest historical stock market crashes, such as 1929-32 and 1836-42. The current crash is overdue; if it doesn't occur soon to cleanse the economy, the future millennial boom will be substantially weaker than the baby boomer generation's.
30. The host discusses a Koshi prediction market for Bitcoin's 2025 price, showing low expectations for it exceeding $130k-$140k. Given Bitcoin's historical 50-70% drops, the host asks if institutional investment might make this time different.
31. Bitcoin is believed to have peaked on October 6th, 2021, at $126,257, consistent with its 47-month cycle. If this peak holds, Bitcoin is expected to decline throughout most of 2026, falling at least 77% from its peak, potentially over 80% if it reaches its 2022 low, a decline not yet mirrored by stocks.
32. Cryptocurrency's potential lies in digitizing all financial assets and money, a global market worth an estimated $630-640 trillion. This digitization could significantly enhance efficiency and trading capacity, making crypto a major development despite its current bubble.
33. The host inquires about the economic outlook for late 2026, presenting options from a prediction market such as a soft landing, stagflation, or different combinations of unemployment and inflation.
34. A soft landing from a bubble is historically impossible. Although governments generated this bubble, their extensive economic involvement might temper the speed or depth of its eventual burst. However, repeated and escalating stimulus after each crash will eventually lead the public to question its efficacy.
35. Government responses to the impending crash will likely be delayed, and future investor sentiment might be less receptive to further stimulus. Due to extreme market overvaluation, a significant crash, potentially one of the worst in history, is more probable than a moderate 20-30% correction.
36. The host asks whether the market bubble pop or a hard economic landing will occur first, and what would trigger the other.
37. The bubble pop will precede a hard landing, as its dramatic impact will expose the artificiality of previous government-fueled growth. This realization by the public that the era of "something for nothing" is over will make it difficult to reverse the downturn.
38. The host notes that many current investors lack experience with significant market downturns, given the rapid "K-shaped" recovery of 2020. The host asks what lessons these investors should learn in preparation for the coming crash.
39. Studying historical stock market data, including the 90-year bubble cycle, reveals that past major bubbles consistently led to deep, prolonged depressions. The fundamental principle is that larger booms inevitably lead to larger busts, as all aspects of life and markets operate in cycles, a pattern observable throughout human history.
40. The host asks how to identify a bubble in commodities like gold and silver, or Bitcoin, which do not generate cash flow, unlike stocks that are assessed by metrics like P/E ratios.
41. Gold has experienced a significant bubble since 2020, rising as much as the NASDAQ and more than the S&P 500, influenced by both natural demand and the "everything bubble." Despite some viewing gold as a safe haven, it is expected to decline, having fallen 40% in 2008, and its current overvaluation may diminish its safe haven status.
42. To remove the current "giant bubble," markets need to correct back to their last major lows: early 2009 for stocks, early 2015 for gold, and mid-2012 for housing. This cleansing is necessary because the underlying US economy remains fundamentally strong, even with slowing demographics compared to other developed nations.
43. The predicted market correction involves significant declines: gold down 74%, S&P 500 down 90%, NASDAQ down 95%, and housing down 60-70%. The housing crash is particularly severe because it would put many homeowners underwater on their mortgages, severely impacting banks and potentially leading to mass defaults.
44. The host acknowledges that many people anticipate a housing correction, though perhaps not 60%, and asks if such a correction could spark a major boom by making homeownership accessible to more individuals.
45. A housing correction would greatly benefit millennials by making homeownership more accessible, but it would devastate baby boomers who hold most financial assets. This demographic shift would hurt the economy as baby boomers reduce spending, but millennials, especially those who haven't bought homes, would be significant winners.
46. The host asks why baby boomers are not selling their homes and properties now to protect their wealth, given the impending crash predictions.
47. Baby boomers are not selling their assets because they are not aware of the impending crash. During bubbles, people become overly optimistic and lose objectivity, which prevents them from making rational decisions or perceiving market realities.
48. Few people are forecasting the coming crash. While Peter Schiff predicts gold will be the safe haven, the speaker believes treasury bonds are the safest investment, highlighting a disagreement even among bearish forecasters.
49. The host asks if inflation will be a concern, assuming treasury yields will fall and bonds will perform well.
50. Inflation is expected to disappear rapidly, and treasury yields, currently around 4-5%, will drop to zero or potentially negative, as they did in late 2008. Holding a 10-year Treasury today could double one's money as yields fall, as these bonds are the safest long-term investment because the US government can always print money to ensure their payment.
51. The host introduces the topic of declining global fertility rates, noting their prevalence in developed countries, China, and India, and asks about the future implications of these demographic trends.
52. Affluence is the primary driver of declining birth rates globally; as people become wealthier, they choose to have fewer children to provide better opportunities for each. This decline, with a 46-47 year lag, will lead to a slowing economy, and a sustained downturn would further depress birth rates.
53. Global birth rates are declining everywhere, leading to a projected peak in world population around 2100. By 2140, on a lag for peak spending, the world population is expected to be relatively flat.
54. The host questions whether declining populations, combined with AI and automation creating abundance, might lead to an economic boom rather than a crash, contrasting this with Malthusian scarcity predictions.
55. Malthusian predictions are flawed because innovation, driven by young people, consistently overcomes perceived constraints. Future generations are expected to live longer, with peak spending extending into their 80s and 100s, further disproving Malthusian theories.
56. Longer lifespans could lead to individuals having multiple family cycles, sustaining population growth more than currently projected. The overarching historical trend is exponential growth in innovation, which continually overcomes limitations, alleviating concerns about scarcity.
57. The host asks the speaker to elaborate on his bearish outlook for China and the US, and his bullish stance on India.
58. China faces a severe birth rate problem, resulting from initial birth limitations and a subsequent societal preference for smaller families, even after restrictions were lifted. This demographic trend positions China to be the fastest-declining emerging country in history.
59. India's population is projected to grow to 1.7 billion, while China's will decline from 1.4 billion to 800 million. India, currently only 35% urban, has significant growth potential, making it poised to perform for the next four decades as China did for the last four, while China is expected to disappoint.
60. The host asks for recommendations on other investments besides treasuries for aggressive investors looking towards 2026.
61. The initial crash from the prolonged bubble is expected to be swift and severe, potentially a 40-50% decline within 2.8 to 6 months. Aggressive investors should short stocks initially, possibly using SQQQ with a partial allocation and T-bills for the rest, then shift into long-term treasury bonds after the first crash for safety during a deeper crisis.
62. The host asks if defensive stocks like healthcare or utilities would be viable investment options during the predicted market downturn.
63. Defensive stocks like healthcare and utilities merely decline less than other sectors during a market crash. They are suitable for investors seeking to reduce losses rather than achieve significant returns.
64. Economists who reassure the public that governments have the economy under control and will prevent a crash should be disregarded. Historically, leading economists at market peaks, such as Irving Fisher in 1929, made similar false pronouncements of "permanent prosperity."
65. The host inquires about the expected timeline for market recovery after the predicted bubble burst, comparing it to the slow NASDAQ recovery post-2000 versus the rapid 2020 recovery.
66. A market recovery is anticipated around 2028, requiring at least 2.5 to 3 years for the market to cleanse itself, similar to the 1929-32 crash. This recovery will not be "bubbly" but more measured. Future investments should focus on leading sectors like AI (e.g., Nvidia) and crypto (e.g., Bitcoin), which represent early stages of "next big things," as well as regions like India and Southeast Asia.
67. Economic booms have historically shifted from Europe to North America, then Japan, and are now moving to China, India, and Southeast Asia. Africa is projected to be the last continent to experience a major boom, likely not within the speaker's lifetime, by which time its population could reach 4-5 billion.
68. For future investments, focus on Asia, specifically India and Southeast Asia, and leading technology sectors such as crypto and AI.
69. Listeners can follow Harry Dent and sign up for his free weekly newsletter and two monthly "rants" at HarryDent.com.
70. The Koshi advertisement is reiterated, reminding viewers to use the promo code "LIN" for a $10 discount on their first $100 deposit.