2026 Will Be ‘Roller Coaster’ For Markets; Trader Reveals Best & Worst Assets | Chris Vermeulen

Here is a chronological list of topics, claims, and statements from the transcript:

1. The interview features Christopher Mulan, Chief Market Strategist at thetechnicaltraders.com, for the final interview of 2025. The discussion will cover his outlook and best/worst assets for the coming new year.
2. Silver has experienced significant volatility, running up to $80, then falling 15-16% in a single day, a rapid reversal not seen in a long time. It is currently stabilizing around $75.
3. Precious metals, especially silver, have seen amazing moves after years of anticipation, with silver rallying 11% in one day, then reversing sharply from a high of $82.50.
4. The current market for precious metals, similar to 2007, shows all participants moving into the space, creating a "frothy" environment with signs of exhaustion in the charts. A large red bar indicates maximum volatility and a potential blow-off top.
5. A significant reason for the recent sell-off in precious metals was an increase in margin requirements for silver, forcing liquidation of other metal positions across the board.
6. Platinum and palladium have also shown extreme volatility, with platinum moving up 22% in four days and dropping 18% in one day. This back-and-forth price action occurs as many investors pile into the metals space.
7. Although owning physical silver, current volatility is a warning sign, and a potential liquidation of some metal positions is being considered as the market caps out. While high volatility can signal an end, some of the biggest percentage moves can occur at the very end of a trend, potentially seeing silver spike to $100.
8. The overall trend for silver is still firmly to the upside, having recovered above its 5-day moving average, despite the recent down day and high volatility.
9. From a technical perspective, extreme up-and-down movements and increased margin calls on silver suggest the market is becoming very wild, with a potential for a big reversal. A large red bearish engulfing candle typically signals a reversal, but it is usually effective for only a few bars, not necessarily marking the absolute top.
10. Price is expected to consolidate sideways within the range of the large red bar, and could easily break down, leading to a bigger pullback before potentially moving higher.
11. Applying Fibonacci extension to silver shows a target of $72 was reached, leading to an emotional "blow-off phase" as the crowd entered. Gold exhibited a similar pattern, rallying, pulling back, hitting its target, experiencing a blow-off phase, and then correcting.
12. The market is rotating, with gold's initial move now seen in silver, platinum, and palladium. Gold had a sharp pullback but maintains a stronger chart pattern.
13. Two types of gold holders exist: those who buy and hold forever in anticipation of economic collapse, and those who trade it. A significant correction in precious metals is anticipated in 2026, presenting a substantial opportunity.
14. It is not advisable to hold assets if the trend reverses; physical metals will be exited and re-entered later.
15. Holding assets during periods of high volatility is undesirable as it typically signifies market weakness, a roller coaster ride, and a potential reversal, even if the underlying trend remains upward. Precious metals are in a parabolic explosion phase, requiring caution.
16. The monthly chart for silver historically shows giant spikes that often do not end well. Despite the common sentiment that "this time is different," the current market is a crowded trade with many investors piling into metals and mining.
17. January is a crucial month for the equities market, with a positive close often leading to a positive year for stocks, and a negative close potentially indicating a downturn. Economic cycles and the "banner cycle" suggest precious metals, the stock market, and the economy are poised for weakening and a pullback.
18. Gold could reach $5100-$5200 in the next month or two through an explosive move, with silver, platinum, and palladium also rising significantly. This surge would likely be followed by a 20-35% correction, similar to 2007-2008.
19. While long-term bullish on metals, a roller coaster ride is expected in 2026. Parabolic moves in gold, like those in 2006-2007, typically warn of brewing instability, which gold is already pricing in by rising from $2000 to $4300.
20. Market price actions (up or down) follow similar patterns regardless of the underlying news or cause, whether it's a tech bubble, financial crash, tariffs, or a pandemic. The market responds to greed (buying) or fear (selling).
21. The current precious metals market is distinct, with strong indicators of major developments, including substantial gold movements to Shanghai and significant buying by institutions and central banks. It is advisable to take profits and follow charts rather than expectations or news.
22. There is significant retail interest in physical silver, with anecdotal reports of silver selling out at places like Costco.
23. Buying gold and silver at current prices means entering at "nosebleed territory" and missing a substantial part of the rally, likely leading to a roller coaster ride. While precious metals are expected to move higher long-term, it could take several years to see returns after an anticipated correction in 2026.
24. For physical metal acquisition, buying brand-name bullion or rounds, prioritizing ounces over fancy coins or high premiums, is recommended. Strategic investors should avoid prolonged periods to break even, as seen in past cycles.
25. The current surge in retail buying, including silver rounds as Christmas gifts, contributes to market frothiness and volatility, often coinciding with institutions and savvy investors selling to lock in gains, as retail typically enters last.
26. The equities market is believed to be in Stage 3, a topping phase, despite all-time highs driven by the "Magnificent 7." Precious metals' rise serves as a warning sign against governments, stocks, and the economy, encouraging protection through alternative assets.
27. The innovation phase, particularly AI, is extending Stage 3 and delaying an economic peak. However, signs of slowing are emerging, such as reduced funding for data centers.
28. Global expansion is likely to stall, with early indicators suggesting caution and a potential market fall. January and February are predicted to be difficult, choppy months for the market, setting a tone for an economic peak, with bad news typically following market declines, fueling further selling.
29. A significant trend reversal in stocks would be signaled by a sharp sell-off of 20% or more, followed by a multi-month "complacency phase" where the market pauses. If the market then breaks further to the downside, it would confirm a Stage 4 decline, characterized by widespread economic damage such as layoffs, bankruptcies, and funding difficulties.
30. Price is the primary indicator to follow. During a severe market downturn, inverse ETFs become an attractive investment.
31. Historically, in 2007, a 20% stock market fall led to gold shooting higher as money shifted from equities to precious metals. A similar scenario might unfold, with gold potentially reaching $5200 during an equities sell-off.
32. A critical signal that the metals market is topping out and entering a Stage 4 decline is when gold and other precious metals begin selling off concurrently with the equities market. A Stage 4 decline is typically associated with a specific, damaging economic event, potentially labeled the "AI bubble" this time.
33. Confirming a bear market, rather than just a technical correction, involves observing the 150-day simple moving average: an upward slope with price above it indicates Stage 2, a flatlining or downward slope with mixed/below price indicates Stage 3, and a downward slope with price consistently below it signifies Stage 4.
34. The 50-day moving average is also a good barometer; if it slopes downward (after 20-40 days of sideways or lower pricing), it signals market weakness. A "death cross" (50-day moving average falling below the 150-day) indicates both short-term and long-term trends are down, suggesting a shift to inverse ETFs or the VIX.
35. Bitcoin, currently around $87,000-$88,000 after falling from $125,000, is at a critical cycle low with an overall long-term uptrend. However, the 150-day moving average is slowing, and price is below it, serving as an early warning sign.
36. The 50-day moving average is significantly below the 150-day, indicating a sharp 35% correction and potentially a top. A bearish pennant formation on the weekly chart suggests a dramatic price fall to around $48,000, breaking significant lows and catching many off guard.
37. Bitcoin has mixed signals; a natural bullish bias exists among many, but the current indicators lean towards a downside break and collapse. Bitcoin is viewed as following the NASDAQ more than leading stocks, and its current floundering is a negative sign if the stock market declines.
38. The bond market (TLT) is still in a downtrend, attempting to form a bottom but possibly heading lower, making it a high-risk and uncertain investment area. A significant rally in bond prices, breaking previous highs and establishing higher lows/highs, is required for a bullish outlook.
39. If bond prices rise, interest rates (yields) will fall. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain neutral on interest rates until there is substantial economic pain, such as rising unemployment or bankruptcies.
40. In 2026, as economic weakness potentially emerges, rates could begin to fall, leading to a rally in bond prices. The 2-year yield is not a focus for trading decisions.
41. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to trade sideways or experience a significant rally in 2026. It appears to be carving out a bottom, having established a higher low and higher high, indicating an upward trend within a support zone.
42. A strengthening dollar, potentially reaching 109 or 114, could create headwinds for precious metals. Historical data (2022) shows the dollar strengthening during stock market sell-offs. Current widespread negative sentiment towards the dollar and bullish sentiment towards precious metals suggest an impending reversal in these trends.
43. Silver could see a dramatic, emotional, FOMO-driven spike past $100 very quickly, though it would likely be short-lived. After this peak and subsequent pullback, silver is expected to establish a new floor between $40-$50, eventually leading to a multi-year rally beyond $100. Metals are likely to top out in 1-2 months for approximately a year.
44. Gold is projected to reach $5100-$5200 in 2026, followed by a sharp correction lasting 3-9 months, which will present a major buying opportunity. By the end of 2026, both gold and silver are expected to have bottomed and resumed moving higher.
45. Gold miners are anticipated to build a strong base in 2026 and then experience a significant upward move. A short-lived correction similar to 2007 could lead to a multi-year rally across metals, miners, uranium, and emerging sectors like data centers and AI/robotics.
46. While a new bull market began in the S&P 500 in 2023, it is not a broad-based rally. A healthy market would show most sectors breaking out with significant volume, leading to 20-60% gains in a short period, which has not been observed recently.
47. For the bullish outlook to be confirmed, all sectors would need to begin breaking out and running. The S&P 500 has been consolidating for several months, and longer consolidation typically predicts a larger subsequent move.
48. The most bearish assets for 2026 are Bitcoin, which could experience a precipitous fall with significant percentage collapse, and the Magnificent 7 stocks. The Magnificent 7, having attracted substantial investment from both small and large investors, is prone to a sharp, quick exodus and a 50-80% sell-off when sentiment turns, leading to a reset of financial markets.
49. Christopher Mulan's mission at thetechnicaltraders.com is to help investors avoid bear markets, protect their lifestyle, and sleep better at night by identifying market reversals. He shares his portfolio and strategy, which involves 5-12 ETF trades annually, aiming for slow and steady gains with low drawdowns.
50. A special offer is available for new subscribers before New Year's Eve, including free physical gold and a 1-hour group video call. The service package covers hot sectors, the 'band strategy,' the 'technical investor strategy' (identifying bull/bear markets and long/short-term trends), and options trading.