Gold Price At Tipping Point? Analyst Called Bull Rally, Updates Shocking Prediction | Gary Wagner

Here is a chronological list of distinct topics, claims, and statements from the transcript:

1. Gold has not moved in this long-term monthly manner since 2008. There will be an upper limit where gold becomes overbought, prompting traders to seek lower prices and corrections.
2. China has accumulated gold for 13 straight months, indicating their belief that it is the best asset for their central bank.
3. Gary Wagner, editor of goldfor.com, has been accurate in his gold and silver predictions throughout the year. His final interview for the year will discuss updates for the end of the current year and Q1 of 2026.
4. At a recent FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell stated the committee would initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities (mainly Treasury bills). This is solely to maintain an ample supply of reserves, ensuring the federal funds rate stays within its target range, as economic growth increases demand for liabilities.
5. Reserve management purchases will amount to $40 billion in the first month and may remain elevated for a few months, with the pace declining afterward based on market conditions. An ample supply of reserves means rates are controlled by administered rates rather than day-to-day money market interventions.
6. People are commenting that these purchases sound like the beginning of quantitative easing (QE) again, focusing on the short end of the curve.
7. On December 11th, gold was at $4,300 (up 2% on the day) and silver was at $63.5, having retraced from a previous high over $64, both at unprecedented levels for silver.
8. A large part of the current gold and silver market move reflects Powell's unexpected comments on adding $40 billion monthly to the liquidity base. This led to silver moving to new all-time record highs and gold nearing its record highs ($60-70 away).
9. Gold is currently at $4,310 (February futures contract). Gold is expected to challenge the all-time record closing price above $4,370 within the next two weeks, an achievable move given recent daily increases.
10. The first technical resistance level for gold is its all-time record high of roughly $4,370. Silver, however, is at all-time record highs, putting it in uncharted territory, unlike gold which previously reached its record high in October.
11. Several market forces are at play: potential quantitative easing from Powell's statements and interest rate differentials. The Bank of Japan is raising rates, the Bank of Canada is holding rates steady, and the FOMC aims to lower rates multiple times.
12. Interest rate differentials suggest a potentially weaker dollar. The dollar index has moved down roughly 2% in less than a month and could move further to $97.75 if it breaks $98.26.
13. There is an inverse relationship between dollar strength and gold weakness; they tend to move in opposing directions because gold and silver are paired against the dollar.
14. Stellar Gold is a gold developer with two large projects in Canada, the Tower Gold Project and the Carac Gold Project. The Tower project could deliver a $2.5 billion after-tax net present value at spot gold price and produce 273,000 ounces annually over 19 years.
15. Silver has been significantly outperforming gold; gold is down since October 17th, while silver is up 20% in the same period. Over the last three months, gold is up 18% and silver is up 50%.
16. Historically, gold and silver typically move in tandem, with silver generally outperforming gold during bull markets. However, silver lagged behind gold in the last two years.
17. Silver's recent strong performance indicates it is playing catch-up to gold's earlier move to all-time record highs in October, having been relatively flat at that time. Now at a new all-time record high, it is difficult to predict silver's exact trajectory as there is no historical data for prices above $60.
18. Silver could continue to move up, possibly reaching $68 by the end of the year, while gold is trying to recapture its former all-time record high.
19. Both gold and silver are expected to remain strong through the end of the year, with silver potentially closing at an all-time record high and gold recapturing its October record high.
20. Despite a divergence where silver is up and gold is slightly down in recent months, silver is expected to continue moving higher until market conditions change. Both precious metals are expected to remain strong, with more upside for silver and potential for gold to recapture its October highs.
21. A long-term monthly chart shows gold is running as strongly as it did in 2008, when it moved from $811 to $1,800. This suggests potential for more upward movement, but a correction is warranted at any moment.
22. Gold has not seen significant corrections on a monthly chart since October 2023, except for minor consolidations. This behavior is unusual.
23. The strength in precious metals is attributed to dollar weakness and a genuine shift of investor interest into this asset class. While gold might be near a top, there is still more room for upside.
24. Although gold is extremely overbought, there is no technical evidence of a top yet. All markets reach an upper limit where they become overbought, leading to corrections. Gold has moved from $1,800 to $4,300 without strong corrections.
25. Gold is expected to challenge its all-time record highs of October before a significant correction occurs.
26. Historically, gold's consolidation phases can last for extended periods, such as 8 to 10 months. The most recent "parabolic" move for gold occurred from August to October 2025, from $3,300 to $4,300.
27. The current market is in uncharted territory for both gold and silver on long-term charts, making prediction difficult. At the beginning of the year, prices of silver above $60 and gold above $4,300 seemed unrealistic.
28. Gold made a "minute correction" from $4,200 down to $3,900 after its August-October 2025 rally, giving back only about 20% of its gains.
29. For retail traders not yet in the market, the advice is to continue accumulating physical gold or silver, but at a less aggressive ratio (e.g., half or one-third of previous allocations), as no data currently indicates a top.
30. While every market eventually corrects or consolidates, gold's recent $200 correction after a $1,000 gain is an extremely shallow 20% retracement, which technicians typically do not chart as a significant correction (a 30% correction is often considered a chartable level).
31. Silver could potentially reach $68 by the end of the year, while gold could recapture its record high and test just below $4,400 (intramonth highs) before a sizable correction. The market remains highly bullish, with consolidation more likely than a correction by year-end.
32. A significant factor supporting gold in 2026 is the substantial global accumulation of physical gold by central banks, especially China, for 13 consecutive months. Central banks view gold as the preferred asset for liquidity and solvency, better than dollars.
33. As long as central banks continue to accumulate gold, it will be difficult for the price trend to correct because these banks are likely to buy dips. Central banks typically make strategic asset accumulation moves.
34. The speaker wishes for good health, prosperity, and happiness for all viewers in the coming year, emphasizing health as number one, followed by prosperity and family for happiness.