Arthur Hayes: They're About To Print Trillions, Bitcoin Mania Returns In 2026

Here is a chronological list of topics, claims, and statements from the transcript:

1. A significant amount of money printing is expected. The Trump administration desires an increase in crypto prices and will effectively repay the public through taxes.
2. Ethereum is projected to rise dramatically, with a price target of $10,000 to $20,000 by the end of the current market cycle. This increase is intended to create a bubble that generates economic activity, boosting asset values for broad public benefit by November 2026.
3. An altcoin season is anticipated in 2026. This period is identified as an opportune time to deploy capital for substantial returns by 2026.
4. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMX, was introduced as a prominent figure in the crypto space. He was invited to share his perspective on the current crypto markets, Bitcoin, altcoins, and his preferred investments.
5. A question was posed regarding Bitcoin's recent stagnation around $100,000. It was noted that Bitcoin has been relatively flat on the year and has underperformed traditional stocks, which is a concern for many.
6. Bitcoin's performance is highly dependent on an individual's entry price point; long-term holders are not worried about recent lackluster performance. While people often focus on short-term periods, Bitcoin has historically been the best-performing asset, particularly against the backdrop of global currency debasement.
7. The inauguration of US President Trump in January was a key event this year. An initial call questioned the source of future spending and money printing under the Trump administration, followed by massive hype and the launch of the Trump memecoin.
8. The market, specifically Bitcoin, peaked around January 20th, which was described as a "simulation-like" timing, and subsequently declined. Poor price performance continued, with Bitcoin dropping to $73,000-$74,000 by April.
9. Individuals with available cash were able to capitalize on the "Trump taco trade" starting after April 9th, related to trade negotiations. Those who invested from April 9th to the present have seen very good returns in Bitcoin, gold, and other assets.
10. A liquidity indicator showed stress, beginning with the raising of the debt ceiling on July 4th, 2025. The Treasury raised about a trillion dollars to refill its accounts, but no new dollar liquidity was injected into the system. Funding markets experienced tightness, and Bitcoin dropped 5-6% in line with dollar liquidity from July.
11. The government shutdown resulted in the Treasury issuing excessive debt without significant spending for approximately 40 days. The expectation is that once the shutdown ends, the Treasury will resume printing and spending money, which will primarily benefit crypto assets like Bitcoin. This period is seen as preparation for significant actions by Trump and "Bessant."
12. Democrats performed well in recent US elections with a platform emphasizing "free goods" and anti-Trump sentiment. However, it was noted that former President Trump also engaged in significant "free goods" giveaways, such as stimulus checks. Both major political parties are considered "socialist" in their approach, differing mainly in the recipients of the funds, which is irrelevant to crypto investors who only care about money creation.
13. For the Republican party to succeed in the November 2026 midterm elections, they will need to prioritize printing and distributing money. This will fund Republican-favored initiatives like weapons, rare earths, and AI, ensuring their constituents feel positive and turn out to vote. This strategy defines the outlook for 2026, and the current moment, despite liquidity uncertainty, is ideal for capital deployment.
14. A discussion on Zcash was introduced, noting its stagnation for three years before a recent 10x surge last month. Arthur Hayes's outlook for the altcoin market was also foreshadowed.
15. Zcash was a highly popular privacy-focused project in crypto in 2016. BitMX was the first platform to offer pre-market Zcash futures, significantly enhancing its market standing.
16. At its genesis in 2016, Zcash's price briefly surged to about $3,000 due to very low circulating supply from its mining mechanism. However, the price subsequently collapsed because of issues with its privacy implementation and limited use of shielded addresses.
17. The current narrative for Zcash is driven by concerns that advanced AI and computing power could deanonymize Bitcoin and Monero transactions. As authorities gain access to on-chain metadata, Zcash is positioned as a necessary privacy-preserving asset for a portion of one's crypto holdings.
18. An additional narrative is that Bitcoin has been co-opted by traditional finance (TradFi), which is often restricted from trading privacy coins like Zcash. The inability of many brokers to support Zcash trading makes it more appealing to grassroots crypto enthusiasts. Zcash is seen as a representation of crypto's original vision, separate from mainstream financial institutions, and its price is expected to continue rising.
19. A price target for Zcash is set at 10% of Bitcoin's value. Zcash is considered insurance against Bitcoin, particularly for enabling pseudonymous transactions that governments might use to prove payments. Its recent price surge is attributed to this recognition and a grassroots movement supporting it.
20. Cool Wallet offers next-generation cold wallets designed for a blockchain-integrated financial system. Their credit card-sized hardware wallets feature advanced security (CCAL6+ secure element), mobile-first usability, and a unique 2+1 factor authentication system requiring a phone, biometric ID, and the card for each transaction.
21. The Cool Wallet Go card, which stores private keys, is activated simply via an app, requiring both primary and backup cards. The activation process involves scanning the card, creating a pairing password, and generating a private key. Every transaction necessitates tapping the card to a phone for security.
22. The Cool Wallet app enables token swaps, peer-to-peer crypto transfers, and staking for yield generation. A new fiat on-ramp feature allows users to directly convert wired fiat funds into stablecoins on-chain within minutes.
23. Cool Wallet supports over 40 mainnets, staking, lending, NFTs, and clear signing protection against phishing. This comprehensive feature set positions self-custody for widespread adoption. Further details and a discount code were offered.
24. A concern was raised about Zcash potentially facing bans similar to Monero in countries like Australia, Japan, and UAE, where it's largely unavailable on major exchanges. However, Zcash is permitted for trading in the United States, which is noted as an exception.
25. The restricted availability of Zcash on government-approved centralized exchanges makes it more desirable, appealing to the core crypto movement's goal of anonymous on-chain trading. Using public blockchains and new protocols, Zcash and other assets can be traded completely anonymously.
26. Concerns were highlighted regarding the future of altcoins, following a recent $20 billion sell-off in leveraged positions. The lagging performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin and the rising Bitcoin dominance have led some to believe that the altcoin market is permanently dead.
27. Certain types of altcoins are considered dead, as the recent market crash exposed many as "market maker circle jerks" lacking organic demand. These assets significantly depreciated (90% losses) once market makers ceased their support, revealing their true lack of value.
28. Uniswap's recent 30% price surge following a proposal to enable a fee switch demonstrates the value of protocols with real clients and revenue. Projects that generate profit and distribute it to token holders, such as Uniswap, Ethereum, Athena, and Pendle, are viable and will define the anticipated altcoin season in 2026.
29. Other altcoins driven by hype, Binance Launchpad promotions, and market maker support, but lacking real clients, are deemed worthless and prone to severe price drops. It is difficult to distinguish sound projects from garbage without the benefit of hindsight.
30. Investment philosophy differs; with "capital abundance," the focus is on capital preservation rather than rapid appreciation. A strategy of being "late" to invest in a project, once it shows initial gains, is preferred to avoid 100% losses.
31. To safely deploy significant capital, it is crucial to identify profitable projects that return money to token holders, often by checking platforms like Token Terminal. While these projects may not offer 100x gains in two weeks, they provide more security.
32. Many individuals with limited savings seek 100x returns in a short period to escape perceived government-induced inflation. These high-risk speculative altcoin plays, while rational for their intent, often result in substantial losses when market makers withdraw. Achieving 100x gains requires willingness to accept significant downside risk.
33. Maelstrom is raising a $250 million private equity fund to acquire crypto firms. The fund targets integral, background companies (not major exchanges) with high EBITDA margins (50-75%) and revenue between $25 million and $100 million.
34. The fund's thesis addresses a market need for capital interested in this niche, as previous liquid and early-stage VC investments underperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum. The strategy involves acquiring cash-generating, token-less companies, providing founders with an exit, enhancing the businesses, and then selling them to larger PE funds or taking them public.
35. The fund primarily focuses on less "sexy" infrastructure companies like data players and API connectivity, specifically avoiding exchanges. A key criterion is the absence of tokens, ensuring a clean equity structure.
36. Fundraising for the Maelstrom fund is projected to conclude in Q1 of next year, after which capital deployment will proceed patiently. While some market assets are expensive, there are idiosyncratic opportunities due to founder issues or legal challenges where companies might need to sell.
37. Maelstrom is prepared with capital and operational expertise to acquire and reorganize these companies when such opportunities arise.
38. Bitcoin dominance is largely influenced by Ethereum's performance, which is expected to continue its rally. The narrative is that Ethereum will become the primary public blockchain for traditional finance (TradFi) for stablecoins and DeFi operations.
39. Ethereum has a price target of $10,000 to $20,000 by the end of the market cycle, which would lead to a decrease in Bitcoin dominance. Profitable DeFi projects that distribute revenue to token holders, like Uniswap, are also expected to see a resurgence.
40. Ethereum is considered the most secure public blockchain for TradFi, evidenced by its substantial $300+ billion in staked value. This security is a key factor for institutions considering public blockchain adoption.
41. News regarding Trump's interest in a $2,000 dividend payment to Americans from US tariff revenues was discussed. The question was whether this would lead to a crypto boom similar to the 2021 stimulus checks.
42. Trump's tariff dividend proposal is viewed as a signal that the Republican party intends to offer "free goods" to the public. While this specific proposal is more of a net wash (tariffs collected then returned), it indicates a broader direction.
43. The proposal signals that Republicans are willing to offer "goodies" to compete with Democrats, framed as budget-neutral to appeal to conservatives. It is an election-time narrative and a general direction of travel rather than a definite policy, with uncertainties about its legality and implementation.
44. Regardless of specific mechanisms, Trump and "Bessant" are expected to print significant amounts of money to ensure the Republican party's success in the November 2026 elections.
45. In contrast to stock picking, which requires understanding specific money flows to position in certain companies (e.g., rare earth, solar), Bitcoin offers a simpler approach. Knowing that money is being created is sufficient for Bitcoin investors, as it has been the best-performing asset during fiat debasement since 2009, likely outperforming most stocks.
46. The Trump administration's strategy with crypto is to create a new bubble to mask previous economic busts, with AI and crypto being current candidates. The administration aims for crypto prices to rise.
47. Increased crypto values, if securitized (e.g., using ETFs for margin loans), could enable people to purchase homes, thereby inflating the housing market. This would make crypto holders feel wealthier, encouraging home equity loans and injecting trillions into the economy. This process would benefit the 65% of Americans who own houses, creating positive sentiment before the November 2026 election.
48. All political actions, especially regarding economic policy, can be understood through the lens of creating bubbles and pumping assets to generate positive public sentiment for electoral success.
49. The amount of expected liquidity will be in the trillions, dependent on the Trump administration's control over government bureaucracies. Trillions could be unleashed by empowering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to issue more mortgages.
50. If the Fed can be controlled, yield curve control could cap yields, lowering mortgage rates and encouraging home equity leveraging. The primary goal is to correctly predict the "direction of travel" for these financial forces.
51. The accuracy of betting markets like PolyMarket in predicting elections was discussed, along with their potential to influence markets and voters. These anonymous, money-backed prediction markets consistently provide accurate forecasts (e.g., a specific mayoral win).
52. Prediction markets influence political parties' decisions on funding primary candidates by offering more accurate data than traditional polling. This leads to better-informed choices for nominations.
53. This dynamic will become reflexive; people will support candidates performing well in prediction markets due to a desire to back winning teams. News organizations are expected to largely become "regurgitators" of prediction market data.
54. Prediction markets represent the true "signal," similar to how social media became the primary source of news over traditional media. They will further erode the necessity for traditional media outlets by providing real-time sentiment from the crowd.
55. Arthur Hayes can be followed on X (formerly Twitter) at @Cryptohaze and on Substack, where he publishes a free crypto traders digest under the same moniker.