$5,000 Gold Hits In 2026; 'This Is Just The Beginning' | Keyvan Salehi

Here is a chronological list of topics, claims, and statements from the transcript:

1. If gold is at $4200 and projected to average $3100 over the next 10 years by Canadian banks, it's questioned why an investor would engage with the space. A bet would be placed on gold and gold equities rising, while the broader market corrects.
2. The gold market has been very active, but the mining sector has lagged behind.
3. The move of gold from $2000 to $4200 in 18 months is not surprising; it was anticipated, and many have been predicting gold reaching $5000.
4. Gold is expected to reach $5000 before the end of next year. This forecast is supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, inflation, and increasing global debt levels, for which gold serves as a primary hedge.
5. This period marks the beginning of a new bull market for gold and gold miners, emerging from a decade-long bear market. General investors are starting to notice and contribute to a rotation into gold and gold equities.
6. A question is raised about why this current bull market cycle for gold is different from previous ones, such as in 1980, 2011, and 2020, which were followed by significant corrections and prolonged periods of flatness.
7. The last decade saw a recession for gold and miners, contrasting with an unprecedented bull run in broader markets like tech, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, characterized by V-shaped recoveries after corrections.
8. The cycle of quick recoveries in the broader market is believed to be ending. The current market run, fueled by AI hype, is seen as a bubble that will eventually burst, acting as a major catalyst for a significant gold breakout and a rotation of capital into mining stocks.
9. Demand for gold is increasing due to purchases by China, Russia, and central banks. Supply will struggle to keep pace with demand because of over a decade of underinvestment, with new mines requiring 15-20 years from discovery to production.
10. Rising global debt levels are expected to significantly impact and devalue fiat currencies, providing further upward potential for gold. The broader markets (NASDAQ, S&P 500) are thought to be nearing their peak.
11. A gold price of $5000 is still anticipated before the end of next year. While predictions for $5000 gold have been made for a decade, it is now less than 25% away from current levels.
12. Historically, broader markets like tech and cryptocurrencies have competed with gold for capital allocation. The current AI boom is seen as the last major driver for broader markets, suggesting an inflection point where gold will become more attractive.
13. The reasons for predicting $5000 gold, such as rising US debt levels and the long-term outlook for the US dollar, remain valid and unchanged.
14. It is unusual for both gold and major US indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ) to reach all-time highs simultaneously in 2024. This anomaly suggests an upcoming divergence between these asset classes.
15. JP Morgan initially forecasted $4000 gold by 2026 and later upgraded their projection to $5000-$5055 by Q4 2026, considering gold their highest conviction long. An analyst further predicted $6000 by 2028, citing Fed rate cuts, stagflation anxiety, concerns about Fed independence, and broader dollar debasement.
16. Major Canadian banks consistently provide long-term gold price projections that are 20-40% below the spot price. This conservative outlook poses a challenge for attracting younger investors, who might question the value of investing in gold when long-term forecasts are significantly lower than current prices.
17. The gold industry must overcome the challenge of conservative bank projections through education, promotion, marketing, advertising, and raising awareness about its products and branding.
18. There is no clear reason why bank analysts are more conservative with their gold outlooks. Possible factors include the cyclical nature of the industry and a long bear market for gold and gold securities before the recent rally, but their calculation formulas consistently yield conservative results.
19. Global debt exceeding $300 trillion, with US debt at $38 trillion, is considered unsustainable. Gold provides a crucial hedge against the risks posed by this debt to fiat currencies.
20. Globally, 40-55% of produced gold is used for jewelry, which, in high-risk jurisdictions like Turkey and India, serves as a hedge against volatile regional currencies and devaluation, rather than solely for luxury.
21. There are over a thousand junior mining companies listed on the TSX, many of which lack legitimate projects. There is a need for differentiation between viable and non-viable projects, and for fair valuation.
22. The entire gold mining sector, from large caps to junior companies like Stellar Gold, is significantly undervalued relative to the recent increase in gold prices. Regulators are needed to address "shell companies" that promote themselves as mining companies without actual projects.
23. Supply scarcity will be a significant factor in the gold market, as there are few large-scale, impactful projects in the global pipeline.
24. Stellar Gold has 17 million ounces of gold in the ground and trades at a C$220 million market cap. Assembling a similar portfolio today would cost over $2 billion and take 10 years, highlighting the company's value proposition and the potential for a rerating of mining stocks.
25. Stellar Gold was formed in early 2024 through the merger of two long-standing junior mining companies, Nighthawk and Monita, in response to a difficult market in 2023 and a need for consolidation to reduce corporate overhead.
26. Stellar Gold possesses two multi-million-ounce gold development projects in Canada (Northwest Territories and Timmins, Ontario), each capable of 300,000 ounces per year with long mine lives. An additional project, Hollinger, an old tailings site in Timmins, contains 0.5 million ounces (mostly indicated) and represents over $1 billion in free cash at current prices, with efforts underway to expedite its permitting.
27. With gold at $4200, Stellar Gold is actively advancing its core Timmins portfolio (Tower Gold and Hollinger) towards permits and a final investment decision (FID) within 2-3 years. Additional capital would allow for the advancement of Northwest Territories projects, and strategies are being explored to monetize non-core assets to fund core operations with minimal shareholder dilution.
28. Key milestones for Stellar Gold in the next 12-24 months include progress on baseline environmental work and community engagement for the Timmins projects, advancing projects from preliminary assessment (PA) to pre-feasibility study (PFS), and starting drilling at the Tower Gold project in Timmins in January.
29. Information about Stellar Gold can be found at stellargold.com and through their active social media channels. The CEO plans to resume personal social media engagement in 2026.