Raw Transcript: 2026 Will See Worst Market Crash Ever: 'There's Nothing Like It In History' Says Harry Dent

This bubble, David, has got to burst at some point. There there's nothing like it in history. And and I've studied If anybody studied bubbles more than I have, I'd love to meet him cuz when after we had this first bubble in the late '9s, I realized, oh my gosh, this was looking, you know, this is looking like I mean, bubbles are rare. Not a not a normal 5-year bubble, okay? A 16 going on 17year bubble. And and I can't even compare this to any bubble in history, but I can tell you one thing, David. >> We're back now with Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and author of several books, including Zero Hour, The Great Crash Ahead, and The Demographic Cliff. We're going to find out why Harry thinks that demographic trends are still about to fall off a cliff, and why there's still a great crash ahead. Why hasn't it happened already? When is it going to happen? And why is it going to be the biggest in history yet, according to Harry? We're going to answer all of these questions and much more in today's very exciting episode. This video is brought to you by Koshi. It is a fully regulated platform that lets you trade on real world events from economic data to political outcomes. Traders can put money down on their favorite teams, events, elections, and more in all 50 states including California and Texas and over 140 countries. go to Koshi and use my promo code linen or go to the link down below or scan the QR code here to get started. Users who use my uh promo code linen will get $10 off of their first $100 deposit. So, more on that later. Good to see you again, Harry. Welcome back. >> Nice to be back, David. >> It is good to see you again. Let me just start by commenting on one of your recent uh pieces that you've published on Harry's take here. If you look at my screen highlighted here, you said that uh this is another one of uh this is another of many indicators that say this is the second great bubble in history. It will burst and end very badly. Late in odd years are the best time for such bubbly tops. Uh and then you wrote, "Be decisive and act fast as the Christmas season wears off early next year. This crash should have occurred between 2019 and late 2022." Now, I've had you on several times the show. Yeah, you you've talked about this between 2019 and 2022. Why hasn't it happened yet? >> We've had volatile times. I'm not saying the markets haven't corrected. I'm just saying maybe this big crash, this big bubble pop that you've talked about in the past, it hasn't happened yet. Why not? >> Okay. Because there's so so much stimulus. Um there there's two important cycles. Okay. We've had a generational spending cycle which again it's unbelievable. pops like a clock every 39 years. 29 68 and then 2007. Okay, that happened. Then 2008 we went into a downturn. I was predicting 20ome years before it happened. Um but but but since then uh they've been stimulating like crazy. And I mean we're up to over $30 trillion, one and a half times the average GDP they have put into our economy to keep this thing um from continuing to burst. Now there's also David though a second cycle, the technology and innovation cycle. That's a 45 year clock approximately and that one uh helped keep things going but that one peaked in late 2019 early 2020. So all of my two biggest cycles are both pointing down now. The demographics actually starting to come up. But but what happened is is is they they fought this with so much stimulus. I mean people think they did this after the Great Depression. They didn't. They built some dams and stuff, but they didn't come in after that crash and just blow out stimulus like this. And and and twothirds of it had just been giant deficits. And the deficit this year is going to be 2 trillion. David, that alone is 67% of GDP, which should have GDP growing 6 to 7% plus any normal 2 to 3% growth rate, and we're struggling to grow at 2%. So, so, so what it shows me is they've covered over what would have been a long slow period by by my cycles from 2008 into 2022 23. Now we're starting, we should be coming out of that with the millennial generation, but um because they have been stimulating so long and pushing the economy, pushing the economy. Um the the we still haven't had what is necessary, you can't have a boom without a bust. In history, you will never see inflation without deflation to follow it. And and and on and on. That's the way everything works. governments are trying to say they can counter cycles. And I'm like, hey, even if you could uh successfully, it's a bad idea because it's the cycles, the ups and downs and and the challenges that come, especially in a big downturn like the early 30s or the early 80s or or or or recently. It's those cycles that that's that gets innovation going the most. Innovation doesn't happen at random. It happens when the economy is at its worst. Okay. So, so economists and and the Federal Reserve and most people just want an economy that grows at 3% forever for with 0 to 2% inflation. That will not be a good economy long term. And I unfortunately since they keep fighting this, I think we may just end up instead of having a big crash, which would wash out all this debt and zombie companies that that are at record levels beyond anything, we may just have a much more mediocre economy in the future because we're carrying all these debt and failing companies into the future. You're supposed to let them go. That's free enterprise. Free market capitalism is let everything bloom freely. Best ever best system in history. But you also have to quickly flush things out. Which is the reason the only economist I really respect and follow is George Gilder because he understands you have to allow not only success, you have to allow failure. You can't prevent failures. They're part of the free market system. >> Let me just pause this to you, Harry. You've got stocks like Oracle that's already down about 45% 47% from its peak. Maybe this bubble pop that you're talking about in this AI bubble that a lot of people are talking about, not just yourself, Harry. Maybe this AI bubble has already popped just for certain stocks and maybe we're just going to see that for certain subsectors, not the entire index. Maybe. What do you think? >> No. No. If that ever happened in history, I agree with it. Never, never, never. This is a bubble in everything. The roaring 20s was not an everything bubble. real estate grew more normally while it was stocks that bubbled uh for the most in history at that point. Well, stocks now and that was that that whole bull run was about 9 years from late 21 into 29. Okay. But the bubble part was only five years and most bubble runs even within a broader never last more than five to six years. We h we already saw what I call uh David a natural bubble from late 94 to early 2000. That was five and a half years and that was just like late 94 to late 2000 1929. It wasn't fueled by massive deficits. In fact, the government ran surpluses in the roaring 20s. Okay? Wasn't deficit spending. It wasn't massive money printing. But this bubble is different because it started in 2009 right out of the gates. didn't let a recession finish all it all it cleansing of debt and stuff and took right off and and and and just kept going. We're on 16 years with only CO as a brief break. So that doesn't even count. That was an outside influence. A 16 17-year bubble, but the worst part 100% artificial. This bubble we would have had a slow economy for most of this last period. Uh and instead we've had the greatest boom in history especially in stocks. So I say the only outcome of this is when this thing finally burst. It's going to look more like 1929 to 32. And by the way, the leading companies in the world back then from General Motors to General Electric went down 89% in 2 and 1/2 years. >> Let's just back up fundamentally. Why is there an everything bubble right now? things can just go up because the economy is chucking along and >> because there's because number one the baby boom was the strongest generational demographic force. On top of that, we've got the whole computerization, the digitization of all financial assets and all these other great things going on, very strong technologies. But on top of that, but but the big reason since 20089, massive stimulus, you realize when when when they print money, they pour it, they buy, they take money out of thin air and buy financial assets. They buy treasury bonds mostly uh and government bonds and stuff but that takes more money that goes into the pool of financial assets and it filters always down into the highest return. So it ends up in stocks and real estate and stuff. So So they have gooseed something beyond anything in history and and I David I know they didn't intend to do this when 2008 hit worse than anybody thought. My my indicator said this was a slam dunk there. there had to be a downturn when the baby boom peaked in spending. Okay, but they didn't understand that the economy was the worst it had been in decades. And they and they thought, well, a trillion dollars ought to yank us out of this. Well, it didn't. Okay, and then they put another trillion, then another another. They kept going. They didn't realize that this was a long-term downturn like 1930 to 42 in between generations, like 1968 to 82. you know, they don't understand these cycles and and they're big cycles. So, they've just been printing printing printing running deficits and what it's created is a giant bubble. Not a not a normal five-year bubble, okay? A 16 going on 17 year bubble. And and I can't even compare this to any bubble in history. But I can tell you one thing, David. Every bubble in history, every single one and everything, including when it happens in commodities or or or the Mississippi land bubble or the South Seas bubble in 1720, they all end up dramatically down. Bubbles burst. And this one is off the charts. >> Well, Bitcoin is already down. You wrote that Bitcoin typically in your analysis leads the stock market. The fact that it's down 30% from its top 124, what does that signal to you? It >> signals to me that this this is starting. Bitcoin is the best leading indicator. Nvidia is the second we have. Now, if you if you go back not to the 2007 peak, that was a generational general peak. Okay, the first bubble we had was was in the late 90s. Okay, and what was leading at the end of that bubble? It was stocks like Cisco building the internet infrastructure and then at the end came Amazon the new dot retailers. Well, what we have now is we've had crypto bubbling outside of the stock market largely and here in the last phases we have AI hitting with extra strength. It's the same kind of dynamo and it's actually it's a good thing happening David. There's nothing wrong with this. It's just when you see bubbles actually it only occurs um when very important new technologies are starting to move mainstream for the first time. It's a good thing but the markets project this out forever and and investors overinvest and now on top of this we've had this massive $30 trillion dollar of stimulus poured into the economy and a lot of it well the twothirds of it goes directly into the economy. Okay. A third of it goes directly in the financial market. So So this is just an unprecedented bubble, but the only bubble, David, the these other bubbles happened in good times that just got really good. And then and that's what investors do. When things get good, people think they've died and gone to heaven. And that happens all the time. This is unique because this occurred in what would have otherwise been a weaker period. But because governments for the first time and only time in history, they did not do this in the 30s, did not do this in the late 1800s when we had the long depression for 23 years or any other time in history. The governments just poured massive amounts of deficits and money printing into the economy. In other words, a fake boom, a totally artificial boom. And so to me, I don't 100% know the ending to this, but I can tell you an artificial bubble's got to be a lot worse than a real bubble that just overvalues a good trend. Okay. Um, so, so, so people should be very wary of this. >> How do you explain the NASDAQ and Nvidia hitting new all-time highs or at new all-time highs while Bitcoin's fallen off 30% off from its highs? What What does that show you when it comes to investor sentiment? Yeah. >> Well, again, exactly. There's always leading indicators. Okay. And and Nvidia is is more coincident. Okay. Bitcoin is doing what I expect. Bitcoin is crashing, you know, a couple months ahead of the rest of the markets. Now, if we do not see the stock market follow in the first couple months of next year, okay, especially I mean stocks are almost always good into Christmas and and early January. It's just like, you know, it's the Santa Claus rally. Okay? If stocks do not follow Bitcoin's lead, again, Bitcoin, if it was down 10%, that wouldn't mean anything. Down 35% at worse, that means a lot. Okay? And Bitcoin has a four-year cycle that's more defined than any cycle in history. And it says Bitcoin ought to be at a minimum down to 30,000 by the end of 2026. And I'm projecting as low as 15,600, its 2022 low. Okay. So, Bitcoin is leading. And if it continues to lead, stocks will have to follow. There's just no two ways around this. I think they're going to follow right after the new year when we get over the whole Santa Claus effect and people wake up after vacation because you know and but but the only thing that could change is that the Bitcoin would have some stellar rally again. Well, I'm telling you another thing on Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Okay, it has never ever gone to new highs after the peak year, which is the third year out of the four-ear cycle. But when it peaks in that third year, it never goes to new highs early or any other time in the next year. It's crashed 77% minimum every time in the next year. So if Bitcoin keeps going down and it's down 77% or more as usual, there's no way stocks are not going to crash and stocks are more overvalued. >> Why is January such an important month for market indicators? We you you you said this yourself. Nobody knows exactly when when this may happen. Up and down moves. It could happen any time, but what are we looking for specifically come 2026 in the new year? >> Well, well, again, you know, it stocks do tend to do um well, if stocks are up, and this has been a pretty darn good indicator in the first week of January, that's the first good sign that the year is going to be up. and and then it's confirmed more if the entire month of January is up. Okay. So, January tends to be a leading indicator and not the only one, but a decent leading indicator for the year. So, so I'm going to be in a confused state if we have an up first week of January and an up January. Then I'll have to tell people, you know what, they just may be able to keep this bubble going uh another year. But if it's not, that'll be a second warning to say, okay, the one thing we do know here, David, this market is it this is the second most overvalued on Robert Schiller's Cape indicator. It's ever been, way more than even the roaring 20s or any other time. The markets are way overvalued and they are cruising for a bruising. So, you know, I I think the best thing a confirmation of that would be if January ends up being weak cuz cuz normally it it's one of the better months and normally a first week in January bodess well for the year. So, yeah, >> that that's the next thing I'm looking for. But this this bubble, David, has got to burst at some point. There there's nothing like it in history. And and I've studied if anybody studied bubbles more than I have, I'd love to meet him because when after we had this first bubble in the late 90s, I realized, oh my gosh, this is looking, you know, this is looking like I mean, bubbles are rare. They only happen. In fact, when I looked it up, it's every 90 years. There's a 90 to 94 year cycle that where these bubbles occur. And this is the cycle that's just peaking here. So again, this 90-year cycle is where you see the biggest downturns as occurred from 29 to 32 and 1836 to 1842. Those were the biggest two stock crashes in all of stock market history in the United States. And and again, this crash is overdue now to happen here. And if it doesn't happen the next year or two, then the only again the only alternative is that we don't flush out all this stuff which weighs on the economy and it means the millennial boom ahead will be weaker than it was for the baby boom. In fact, maybe substantially weaker. >> I'm going to come back to demographic is very important. But let's just spend a minute on Bitcoin since it's a leading indicator. You said how high will Bitcoin get this year is the subject of this prediction uh prediction market. This is on Koshi, one of the largest prediction markets in the US. Nobody on this particular trade believes that Bitcoin is going to go to above 130,000 uh or more well 2% 2% chance less than 1% chance it's going to above 130 140 and then 75 or below actually there aren't any trades on that one either. So um people uh at least in the prediction markets aren't feeling great about Bitcoin. If you just take a look at what Bitcoin has done historically you're right it's gone down 50 to 70%. Is this time different though, Harry, given how much institutional placement there's already been in the markets? >> Yeah. No, I I mean I I do think Bitcoin has peaked there. I had a a channel going up into the end of 2025. And why? Because that was the peak year. It should peak just like it peaked 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025 late in the year. And in fact, it's not 48 months. It's actually 47 months. So, so Bitcoin should have peaked uh a month earlier than it did in 2021, which was in early November, and it did October 6th. So, it peaked exactly 47 months later, which it has so far. So, that I I have been assuming since then. 126 257 was the peak. Okay, it has gone down. The problem is stocks haven't followed yet. And if it has peaked, then it should be down all most all of 2026 and down at least 77% by past cycles. And I'm thinking since these the last three uh Bitcoin four-year cycles now make a 12-year, what I'd call a big wave one out of, you know, a three and fifth wave to follow longterm that if anything will be down more than 77%. If we go back to the 2022 low, Bitcoin would be down about uh 80 some percent and if it just goes back down to the bottom trend line, it would be down 77% as usual. So, so that that's a big deal. And again, there I'm just telling you, Bitcoin along now with AI are the leading sectors. cryptocurrency. I didn't get this Dave until somebody in my own uh conference years ago came out and said cryptocurrency is just the digitization of all financial assets and money. And I'm like well yes that's the biggest thing on earth. I I'm the only guy can tell you that number 630 trillion. It's probably 640 by now of financial assets in the world. It's five times global GDP. It's the biggest financial in the world. So when I heard that I understood, okay, crypto may not make a lot of sense, but if [clears throat] it can digitize and make totally efficient and increase trading capacity and everything else about financial assets, then yes, it's a big deal. >> What about the state? What about the state of the economy? So we've talked about markets. This is another prediction. State of the economy at the end of 2025. The overwhelming belief soft landing is going to be well end of 2025s in two weeks. Let's extend this to 2026. Of these options here, soft landing, stackflation, high unemployment, low inflation, low unemployment, high inflation. So the opposite of stackflation, what's your outlook for how the economy will progress into the end of 2026? >> There is no soft landing to a bubble ever. Now, for the first time since the and in this case, this bubble has totally been generated by governments. Number one, that makes it harder for them to fight it to me because they they've generated. But but one way or the other, governments are more involved in the economy. So maybe this bubble won't burst quite as fast or quite as deep. That is the because they I mean they bubbled it up and and and and they fought the past burst. They will they will fight this. But but you got to realize I mean they've done this now a number of times. If you keep every time there's a crash, you keep stimulating much harder than last time and you bubble up again and you crash again, there's a point where people start to say, "Well, wait a minute. This doesn't work." So, so that's what's going to make this more unpredictable. The the governments will be behind the curve. They already are. Okay? If they knew what I knew, they've been stimulating a lot more, okay, already. Um, so they're going to be behind the curve probably too late, but they might limit it. Instead of it crashing 70 to 90%, maybe it crashes more like 40 to 50. Okay, so that that's what I have to read when it happens. How do they respond? But they are going to be too late. And then the question is when they do respond, do do investors finally say, well, you know what, we've seen this movie before. We're not buying it as much. And so the bounce isn't as strong. Um and and so that's what we're just going to have to see. All I know right now, David, the markets can't go a lot higher since they're so un overvalued and the crash is more likely to be one of the worst in history rather than a a nice reasonable 20 30%. >> What comes first? This bubble pop or a hard landing? What needs to come first to stimulate the other? >> The bubble. The bubble pop. because the bubble pop will will get you I can tell you D people that people have watched this movie and and they see the government just printing money and they know it's like you know superficial but it seems to work okay when this when this thing really cracks hard people are going to go oh my god we people are going to say I knew it you know what was I thinking you know and and so I think it's going to that's why I think it's going to be hard to reverse this thing people know that this has been the biggest something for nothing in history. I mean, you they just if you can just grow by printing money out of thin air and if governments can always spend 20 30% more than they take in and do that forever and we grow well then we'll never have to worry again and and life will be so easy we'll all turn into morons because I tell you one thing the first thing I ask people common sense question what what you learn the most from your successes or your failures not one person has said the successes they've all said my failures You have to have >> That's a good point, Carrie. A lot of people in the markets today, retail and institutional investors have never experienced a real downturn since 2008. 2020 was a glitch K-shaped recovery immediately after. If you were positioned, you didn't sell your >> very quick. Yeah. An outside cause. Yes. >> So, no one's ever experienced this without nobody. A lot of people have not experienced this before. What lessons should they learn in advance? How should they be prepared for this coming crash that you're talking about? >> Oh, well, the number one insight, you have to step back and and and look at the markets. If you look at this and look at history, I mean, if you see that there's a stock market chart that goes all the way back to the late 1700s, okay, adjusted for inflation. Okay, you see that? You see these bubbles every 90 years. And here is this one again. and all in the last two bubbles like this both ended up in the deepest longest depressions in history period. There was no other ending. So if you just stand back and look at this then then there's no other conclusion you can almost come to. And in general anytime you have a super run in stocks even if it's just for four or five years you're going to have you know the bigger the bubble the bigger the burst. The bigger the boom the bigger the burst. And that's just that's just basic nature of life. That's not even just stock markets. Nothing goes up without going down. And everything I can tell you everything in life runs in cycles. Not just human beings. All life runs in cycles. I studied history more than anybody I know. That's all I say. I didn't come in here just studying a few stock cycles and and stock market bubbles. I studied human history back 300,000 years from the beginning. How would you characterize gold and silver? Are they bubble in a bubble as well? We we we know if a stock is in a bubble because it doesn't generate cash flow and it's trading at, you know, 4 million P or whatever. I'm just making a number up. But we how we can't how do we know something a commodity like gold and silver or Bitcoin for that matter doesn't generate any cash flow? How do we assign a bubble descriptor to that? >> Well, I I just look at it at at the bubble itself. Gold since 2020 has gone up just as much as the NASDAQ and far more than the S&P 500. In other words, and in the last three years, it's gone up more than both in the last phase because gold is getting both a natural bubble and an everything bubble cuz everything's bubbling. Okay? And copper, anything. I mean, anything's bubbling, okay? Um, so but but gold's also getting some people saying, "Well, Peter Schiff's telling me that gold will be the savior." Okay? They think the bubble's going to burst, but they think gold's going to save them. I am telling you right now, gold has bubbled up so much, there's no way it's not going to go down. And in 2008, gold held up in the early stages in the early 2008 and then in the last half of the year, came down. It didn't go down nearly as much as stocks, but gold did go down about 40% in the end. Okay? So gold is not the safe haven, but I'll tell you it's it it's better than stock, but gold this time may not be because gold has bubbled as much. Now I look back, Dave, one thing I do in a bubble like I look at where would we have to go in any market to get back to the last major low for stocks? That's mid 2012. For gold, it's it's it's uh early 2015. Okay. What was the last major low? Same thing in housing. It's it's I'm sorry. Stocks it's it's early 2009. Um housing it's it's mid 2012. Okay. So I look at all these markets say all the we've had this giant bubble. All we need to do is take the bubble out. There's nothing wrong with our economy. It's still a good economy long term. America still leads the world. We do have slowing demographics but less so than most of our developed world competitors. So So that's what I look at and that's what'll tell you. That tells me gold's going to go down 74%. The uh S&P 500 90% and the NASDAQ 95%. If we just go back to the last major low and housing, this is the shocker, David. Housing down 60 to 70%. That is the worst thing because houses are mortgaged and that kills the banks and that puts people underwater. that they won't just have lost money. They will be underwater and some people will be walking from their homes because like my god I had 20% >> think a lot of people are waiting for a housing correction. Maybe not 60% but a lot of people are waiting for a housing correction. If that happens Harry wouldn't that spark the biggest boom ever? A lot of people could get into the housing market for the first time ever. That'll >> Yeah, it'll be the best thing to ever happen to millennials. It'll be the worst thing possible for baby boomers. And guess who has all the money invested? People from 50 to 65 are the ones that that invest the most and then they pay they spend that down slowly in retirement. The baby boomers are going to get demolished by this and that will hurt the economy because they'll have to cut back their spending. But the millennials, you're right, the millennials who haven't yet bought a big house, maybe they bought a little house, but they haven't bought their big house. They're not even investing in stocks long term yet. People don't even start that until their 50s. The millennials will be big winners. And the baby boomers will be the biggest losers. And I'm a baby boomer and everybody I know is a baby boomer. So that's why I'm warning people. The people with money to invest who are invested are the baby boomers. Okay? The silent generation's already dead. The baby boomers own almost all the financial assets. So if it's a financial asset bubble burst, real estate, stocks, commodities, gold, everything, the baby boomers are the big losers. And millennials will be jumping up and down. especially if they got pushed out of the the market and didn't even buy their first home yet. >> Why aren't the baby boomers selling their homes now in the properties if this is going to happen? And wouldn't Wouldn't it make sense to protect your wealth? >> You know, no, David, they don't know it's going to telling them this is going to happen. Nobody. >> I guess you now. But yes, sure. So So you think this is >> you know how much a minority I am and and and the only other person down here in Puerto Rico is Peter Schiff. And he's saying gold's going to be the safe haven. And I'm saying it's going to be treasury bonds and the safest investment. But what even we disagree, but there's almost nobody forecasting this. Bubbles when bubbles burst, everybody's so high on the bubble they can't think straight. I'm I'm sorry. It's that simple. When people are high, they don't make the decisions and they don't see reality. >> So you think treasuries will do well, yields will go down. So you don't think inflation's going to be a concern? I'm guessing [laughter] >> inflation will disappear at the speed of light, right? Okay. >> And and and a five a four to five percent treasury. The 10 years at a 4.2ish, but the the 30 years are getting closer to five. They're going to drop down to zero. And they did that, David, in late 2008. 4% on a 10-year Treasury. So, they will go that or lower. They could go negative. So, if you're holding that 10-year Treasury and it goes from 4 and a half today down to zero, you know how much that bond's going to be worth? Double. You're going to double your money in the safest long-term investment on Earth because you know why it's the safest? Cuz even in their in deficits and everything else, they can they can print money to pay those bonds. And they will. So, so those bonds, interest and principal will be paid more than anything else on earth by the US. There's going to be some governments that won't be able to pay their debt. US will be able to pay those bonds even if it's just by printing money. >> Let's move on to demographic trends. Now, let's start with fertility rate. Uh it's no surprise to anybody at this point that the fertility rate globally has been going down. Barring a few countries, most countries, especially the developed countries are now experiencing uh fertility rates below two, which is the replacement rate. Even China and India now below two, projected to go even lower. Uh you've written about this even before it started happening. So you you've been talking about this for quite some time. Tell us about how the future looks like >> just from a fertility and demographic standpoint. Are we heading towards extinction? >> That's why everything David goes in cycles. Affluence is what causes this decline in birth rates. Okay, the very thing we all love. We had a bunch of babies, you know, after World War II. Everybody got back and everybody felt good and blah blah blah and life was good and economy is booming. We had the biggest baby boom in history. And this wasn't just the US. It happened around the world. Third world countries always have more babies. People who are poorer have more babies than rich people. It is affluent. When people get as people get more affluent, their outlook changes. They they're like, "Okay, we're fluent now. What we want is to have one or two kids instead of three, four, five cuz we want our kids to go to Harvard and Stanford and we want our kids to do well." Okay? And we can't nobody can afford to send not very few people can afford to send four, five, six, seven kids. Poor people have four, five, six kids, especially in the third world because they don't only half of them may not survive childhood. Okay? Or a certain person depend and in history that was very true. So, so affluence always causes lower birth rates and then lower birth rates on a lag 46 years lag for the peak spinning of the average person moving towards 47 now that will cause a slowing economy down the road. So this has already happened and this downturn when we have if we have this downturn even for a few years and it'll take at least three years for this to wash out birth rates will drop during that and that will play out. So birth rates as you showed here already declining in the developed world already declining in the third world although still high in a lot of countries okay but they're declining everywhere and that means our world's going to slowly move and I I project out this far okay by about 2100 our population's going to start to peak and then on a lag for peak spending by 2140 we'll be a pretty flat world >> unless something changes >> I'm just thinking about this okay this so what we're describing here is the opposite of the Malthusian trap when Thomas Mouthis argued in the late 1800s that we're going to have a scarcity of resources because the population boom grows out of control now the population is declining uh perhaps we'll have not a scarcity of resources but an abundance because AI and automation is going to produce the deficit that the shrinking population would have produced and so now we have the opposite situation wouldn't that mean a boom instead of a crash >> because What Malthusi Mouthus myth, okay, was that he he sees this constraint. He was looking at the world the way it is. When you have a lot of new people, young people, it's the young people that innovate. People don't get that the innovation is concentrated in the new young people. When you have a bunch of new births, these people will innovate stuff when they're in their teens and early 20s that will then make the world increasingly better to help solve the supply limits when they're at their peak spending in their 40s. And I'm telling you, one of these days, people's peak spending is going to be in their 80s and they're going to live to be 100 120. I mean, that that's inevitable, David. The already the longest lived people on earth get make it to 120. One of these days our our peak I mean this whole thing is going to peak later. I I think we will be spending much later and dying much later, but I'm not going to live to see that. That's going to be 50 50 years or maybe 100 years from now. But that will happen. So when people look at things and say restraints, innovation is always [laughter] killed restraints. Mouthus guys are always going to be wrong. Even this slowdown long term will will probably cause innovations. And I'll tell you another thing that could happen. People could get healthier and live so long that they might have two family cycles. People going to live to be 120 one day. They might have two birth and family and and and and raise their families and then take a long vacation for 10 or 15 years and then go and give have another family again and and people living longer will keep the population growing more than people projecting. So you have to be careful when people are predicting out of limitation. There's one trend and only one trend for all of history all the way back to the big bang and it's called exponential growth. I didn't even get this. When you go back to way back in early humanity, it seemed like things were growing slow. Okay? It's just because they were growing from small and you couldn't notice how how big the growth rates are there. There's only exponential growth through all of history. Anybody that studies it knows that it's the exponentiality of growth and innovation that heads off these limitations that everybody's always fearing before they happen. I do not worry about that. >> So, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you're bearish on India. Sorry, you're bearish on China and the US for that reason. But you're very bullish on India. So, tell us why. Okay, I'm bullish on China because they have not they've have had low birth rates from the beginning because they limited them and then when they raised it to two to three children, everybody said screw you, we're actually doing good with one child cuz we can afford more. They actually realize it was in their they didn't they didn't start having two or three. So So China has a birth problem from the beginning and they are going to drop the fastest of any and mark my I if I die and this doesn't happen then then you can burn me. Okay, because China is set to be the fastest declining emerging country in history. India will grow um for for decades but it's slower rates and eventually India is going to keep growing. They will end up at 1.7 billion. China is going to go from 1.4 the same as India today. They're tied now. China's going to go down towards 800 billion while India goes to 1.7. So that's why I'm betting on India. India is also only 35% urban and countries don't start to mature till they get 80 to 90% urban like we are. So, so India is going to be for the next four decades what China was for the last four and China is going to disappoint almost everybody. >> So besides treasuries, anything else you like into 2026? >> Well, I tell you one thing I like and and this is for more aggressive investors. The biggest hit comes in the first crash when it's bubbled up. so long and everybody thinks there's no way it'll ever go down. The government's got our back and blah blah blah. When it finally goes down, the first crash, and I've measured every bubble burst in history, 42% in 2.8 months, okay? And and this one will be more at the high end, 50%. Okay? So, so, so it happens very rapidly. So, I do think that for aggressive investors, I I wouldn't play it the long long way because it gets very volatile. But right now I if if you want to be just single short stocks and and the best way to do that paradoxically is to buy SQQQ which is three times the NASDAQ 100 which means if I want to be single short I only buy a third allocation and put the rest other two/3s in T bills earning me four four and a half%. Okay. So that way if you catch that first crash then I would move over to the bonds, the treasury bonds because the stocks short stocks works the best in the early stages and and the bonds really roar when you get in a deep crisis but you won't see that until a year or two from now. So, so an aggressive investor can be single short stocks. Uh, and then after the first crash, I would increasingly get long the treasury bonds because they're a lot they're a lot less. I mean, those stocks will kill you. So, but the first crash will happen hard and you'll be rewarded very quickly on that. And then you take I would take if stocks are down 40 50% in 3 to 6 months. I would take that and then run and get let's say bonds and sleep at night. You wouldn't even be interested in let's say some defensive stocks, healthcare, utilities for example, where you think everything's going down. >> No, they just go down less. Yeah. I mean, yeah, if you're not sure, yes. Be in healthcare and defensive stocks. I mean, and you got to realize people who listen to me and then Peter Schiff says that and then most economists say, "Oh, don't worry folks. The government's got this under control. They won't let this happen." Okay? Well, those are the people not to listen to. When people are saying that um at the top of the 29 the leading economist Irving Fischer said we seem to have achieved a permanent plateau of prosperity. Okay that's what people say at the top that there was the best best economists in the country back then said oh we'll just glide here forever. We won't go a lot higher but we're permanent plateau. Okay that's the people you don't listen to but even the bearish people like me have different outcomes. And you know, Peter shift said it'll be gold. I'm telling you, nothing better than a treasury bond because they can print money to pay them off. You can't pay off gold that way. And gold has bubbled more than any time in history and now more than stocks in the last 3 to 5 years. I said, >> final question. Given the demographic trends and the other macro trends we talked about, when this bubble does pop and we do get this crash in the stock market and other things, when can you expect a recovery? Are we looking at the NASDAQ post 2000 which hasn't recovered for 15 years post 2000 until uh I think mid200s then it recovered to its previous all-time high or we looking at an instant recovery which is basically 2020. >> Okay. Yeah. You're you're going to see a recovery. I would say if we're peaking now you'll see a recovery sometime in 2028. It takes at least two and a half three years to wash out something this big. That was it took 2.7 2.7 years. Yeah. In 1929 to 32. But but you're not going you're not going to see it just zoom back up in in another bubble. Bubbles will be wiped out. We after the 29 bubble crash and then a secondary bubble crash 37 to 38 bubbles. We didn't never saw a bubble for for for you know 80 90 years. Okay. So it's not going to be bubbly. So things will come back. I mean but but I'll tell you what what what I buy. I would buy stocks like Nvidia, the leader in AI and Bitcoin, the leader in crypto. Again, [clears throat] these bubbles happen when the next big thing is in their early stages. So, they still have their best decades ahead of them and you're going to get to buy them at a deep discount, but the recovery will not be as bubbly. Okay? It's it's going to stocks are going to be a little drunken, you know, stampering around because they just got clocked the hardest. I mean, they coming off a knockout. Okay. So, so yes, but you want to invest again and you want to invest in the best sectors and and so that would mean uh AI, it would mean crypto and it would mean India and Southeast Asia globally. Those are the next things that that are going to boom. And we've seen actually the boom for centuries go from Europe to North America to Japan and now to China and India and Southeast Asia and and it's going to eventually go not in my lifetime to Africa. Africa will be the last to boom. And you know by the time Africa has this boom they're going to have four to five billion people in Africa alone. >> Okay. >> Cuz they're the ones still having babies. >> Yeah. But is that is that in your lifetime? >> No. >> No. >> No, it's not. >> All right. Well, that's >> 2100 to 2150. I'll tell you right now, that's Africa's boom. I'm not I'm not telling people to buy Africa when this boom goes down. You buy you buy Asia and you buy the leading sectors, crypto and and and um AI. >> Yeah, fair enough. All right. Thank you very much, Harry. Where can we follow you? >> HarryDent.com. I I have a newsletter, paid newsletter, but I have a good free newsletter. You'll hear from me every week and get two rants a month. Just go to harrydent.com and you can sign up. That that's there just to sign up for the free newsletter. That's all you got to do. >> Follow Harry Dan, the links down below. And uh we'll see you soon. Thank you very much, Harry. Merry Christmas and happy new year. >> Okay. Thank you. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe and follow Harry in the links down below. And don't forget to use my promo code, Lynn Lynn N, when you sign up to Koshi. That's L I N. Use a promo code linked down below or scan the QR code here and you'll get $10 off on your first $100 deposit.