Raw Transcript: 2026 Will Be ‘Roller Coaster’ For Markets; Trader Reveals Best & Worst Assets | Chris Vermeulen

Christopher Mulan is back. He's the chief market strategist at the technical traders.com. And this will be my final interview for 2025. A sweet bitter bittersweet farewell to the year. And uh who better to ring off the new year than Chris Moon. Welcome back to the show, Chris. It's good to see you, Chris. >> Yeah, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure and happy new year. >> We're gonna be getting Chris's outlook for the year, his best uh best assets for the coming new year as well as possibly the worst assets to come. Let's start with silver and gold. I'm I want to start with the metals today. A little bit out of our usual rhythm, Chris. And the only reason I'm doing that is because silver has had a monumental run in the last week, running up to $80 and then falling, I think, double digits, 15 to 16%. It hasn't fallen this much in a single day intraday trade uh trading session since I can't remember the year, but it was a long time ago. So, this very sharp rise to 80 and then a very sharp reversal back to 72. I mean, it's still high, right? It's still like 72, but uh the quick reversal, that was a scary drop. And now silver is stabilizing around 75. So, uh big green candle, then a big red candle, and then a smaller green candle is what I see on my screen. I'll take I'll let you share your screen and uh walk us through what uh >> what you're looking at here. >> Yeah. Well, there there's definitely been some pretty amazing moves in the precious metal space. I think all of us have been waiting years for everything, especially silver to really pop. And of course, silver has done that. As you just mentioned, if we look at the last three candles that we've seen, we saw like a 11% rally one day, then a massive reversal. We actually had $82 as my my kind of blowoff spike high, and we actually hit $8250 uh just two days ago, and then it sold off fairly fairly dramatically. And now we're getting that bounce. So there's a lot going on when you It's not just in silver. It's in the whole precious metal space. You and I have touched on this that when you look at the comparison of 2007 and what miners have done, what platinum, platium and silver have done, we're definitely seeing everybody starting to really move into this space who wants to get in. And it is starting to feel really frothy. As exciting as it is and people think it's just getting started, the charts are actually showing signs that it's actually starting to become exhausted. And this type of red bar that is a pretty scary red bar is one of those signs that we're getting close to maximum kind of uh volatility and some type of blowoff top. Now, there are reasons for this. We we saw silver have a margin call a little while ago, a mar increase in margin. Um we also saw it again yesterday which is I think a very big reason why we saw precious metals across the board sell off. Uh whoever's in silver they're generally into a lot of other metals and if people if margin requirements go up they have to liquidate uh all kinds of different positions just to cover their silver positions and things like that. So we saw a lot of selling yesterday based I think a lot on the margin uh requirement that was increased the comics. But, you know, when we look at a couple of these other plays real quick, like platinum, if you look at platinum, look at the the big kind of volatility, we saw percentage-wise, you know, in in like a 4-day window, it moved up 22%, in a 1-day window, it dropped 18%. And we still have the same similar type of price action for Platium. And of course, just huge huge price action. Of course, everybody's talking about it. Everybody seems to be wanting to get into this space. Who is open to investing? I'm not saying all investors are moving in. I'm just saying those who are um more or less open to the concept of adding and trading precious metals, they seem to all be piling in. And when they do that, we get into this back and forth price action. And silver is is is very exciting. I mean, I own a lot of physical silver. My I now have kind of a warning flag in my head. I'm watching this chart like a hawk along with other metals here because I'm potentially going to be liquidating some of my metals at some point, you know, depending where the market caps out. So, um, people need to be aware this type of volatility is usually a sign that we're getting close to an end, but some of the biggest moves percentage- wise do happen at the very end of a trend. We could see silver spike and pop and really take off to 100. It It's not about trying to pick or nail a top. It's about just following the trend. And the trend is clearly still up. It had a big downbot day, but it's recovered and now it's back above the 5day moving average. So, the trend is still firmly to the upside. It's just got a lot of volatility in there. Now, >> whenever you see just from a technical perspective, anything move up and down like this. Let's just take silver and palladium as examples because you have both of them on your screen >> and you've got these big red bars followed by a smaller bounce. what what what do you do with that information? Because on the one hand, uh you've got this continuous uptrend that's still intact and on the other hand, you have this giant one-day wash out or maybe multi-day in the p uh uh in in the case of palladium that that was followed by some sort of consolidation and then a slight bounce up. Does that signal to you that the rally is over? Is that why we had that giant red bar, Chris? >> I wouldn't I wouldn't say it's over. All all it is telling us is like things are getting really wild. We've seen margin increased twice on silver. It just means there's a lot going on and we need to be aware. We could have a big reversal at any point. Now, you're right. This type of bar when it gaps higher and then pushes up and then gets slammed down and closes below the previous day. That is like a bearish engulfing candle. The red body completely engulfs the previous day. It went higher, it closed below it. that's usually a reversal candle. Now, a reversal candle is only good for one, two, or three more bars after it. It doesn't, you know, specifically mean it's the top for silver. The big thing with this inside bar, as you mentioned, this big red bar, is now price is going to trade sideways in here for a little while, and we need to see which way it's going to resolve. You're right, this is a bearish bar. It should price might consolidate sideways here inside this range and it could easily break down and have a bigger pullback uh before it maybe wants to go higher. And there's a really good example like if we just take a look at silver and use the Fibonacci extension here. We go from the low that we had over here. We had this big run up this peak and then we come down and we talked about um well maybe I don't know if I talked about it with you. It probably did, but we had this target around 72 uh to the upside for silver. And that is the Fibonacci measured move just based on this move up the big correction and then of course the 618 and the 100%. And after once you hit that level, that's like that's a level we we locked in 20% gain. We are long an SLV trade with one of our strategies. We closed out a trade there and then of course price got into this this kind of blowoff phase, this emotional move. And this is what happens when you hit these Fibonacci targets and then suddenly the crowd jumps in and creates this volatility. That means the price charts are painting a very clear picture of what's going on. And we did the exact same thing with gold. If you look back at gold and we just go back to this previous uh chart right here, it's just amazing how these charts, you know, play out. We had the rally up and then we had this pullback and we carried this over. And so we had uh we got long gold for a quick trade with 15% right up to our target here. It had the hiccup and then it had the blowoff phase before it went into a big correction. So the market the it's kind of rotating. We're seeing it. It happened in gold first. Now it's happened in silver, platinum and platium. Gold has had a pullback a fairly sharp pullback for gold but overall still you know has a a stronger chart pattern. But uh the charts are really strong here saying that the trends are still up but there's a lot of volatility and people I think you know there's other two camps. There's other people who just buy gold and they keep it forever and um you know they think the world's going to fall apart and and all that stuff and they're never going to sell it and then there's other people who want to try to navigate it and trade it and we could see a very big correction in 2026 in the precious metal space. uh which I think is going to be a huge opportunity and I I don't believe in holding something if the trend turns around. So I'll be looking to exit physical metals. I can always get back in later, but um I think 2026 is going to be a difficult year for metals. You already know why people hold gold. It's because it's real money. But what if your gold could do more than just sit in a vault? Well, that's where our sponsor today, Monetary Metals, comes in. They offer a way for you to earn a yield on your gold paid in physical gold. Through their leasing marketplace, you can earn up to 4% yield per year in gold. 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So how do you see it? >> Yeah, when when there's this type of volatility like gold still has a very nice chart. I I still think gold has got the target to reach around 51 5200 I hope uh to the upside but when we get this type of volatility David I really don't want to be holding stuff because I know it is a roller coaster ride and it could reverse it's usually a sign of weakness it's usually the market is running out of steam there is a reversal coming and the thing is we're in this this parabolic explosion phase in precious metals and uh you just have to have your finger on the trigger and I I'm remaining long, but as you said, this type of volatility, I don't really like to be involved in stuff when it's like this because now it's the underlying trend is still up. We're just going to ride that trend until proven wrong, till that trend has changed direction. Um, but you got to be cautious because this type of price action is pretty scary. And the monthly chart of of silver is such a great um way to, you know, to look at what's going on. when you zoom way back in time, you know, you get these giant spikes that go straight up and they usually don't end very well. And I keep seeing I mentioned, you know, this the other day online and of course everybody's like, "This time is different. This is, you know, everybody says that each time, but to me, this is a very crowded trade. People have all moved into everything that says the word metals and mining into it. um we're seeing just stocks and everything shoot higher, but I'm very very weary of how where this will be probably two or three bars from now, which is two or three months. January is a huge month for the equities market. If the month closes positive for the candle, we usually have a positive year for stocks. If it closes negative, it could be down. You and I in our last talk we talked about the cycles at play, the banner cycle at play, uh, that are pointing to, you know, precious metals in the stock market and the economy weakening and pulling back. And, you know, if we were to just look at this, this is a monthly chart of silver that I kind of already drawn on. This red box brings us up to about 5200 in gold. In the perfect storm, gold will move up to 51 or 5200 in the next month or two. It'll be a very explosive move. Who knows where silver, platinum, and platium will go. They could go very high. Um, but then we're going to go into a big correction, potentially a 20 to 35% correction at very similar to what happened in 2007, 2008. We saw that pullback and then we start into a multi-year, another multi-year big move up where I think we see $7,500 gold and beyond. So, I'm still really bullish on metals long term, but I think we're going to walk into this roller coaster ride uh in 2026 because there's when gold has these parabolic moves and and breaks out of this these ranges just like it did in 2006 2007, it's usually a warning that something bad is brewing and and unfolding. And so, gold is pricing in for that. gold. That's why gold has gone from 2,000 to, you know, uh 20 2200 23 or 4,300 is because it's already pricing in instability, things breaking down, and I think there's some upside. Uh I know you and I when we talk about this and I always reference 2007, everybody's like, well, this is nothing like 2007. And I I fully agree. I think one of the best examples are there's a couple of examples. You know, you get into these bare markets, it could be the tech bubble, it could be the financial crash. Either way, price goes up or down uh in a very similar way. And it doesn't matter if it's because there was worthless tech companies or if it was the banking and the housing market blowing up. They're totally different, completely unrelated, yet the markets do the same thing. And I think a good example of this is when we look at um we look at the the tariff chart here of what happened this year, the selloff in February. You see the sell-off, it sold off. That was news. That was based on tariff move, right? Well, take a look at what happened with 2025. We had this year we had the tariff move, but look at 2020 the co it's the same thing. It doesn't matter if it is somebody putting taxes on imports or it's a pandemic and and people are dying and there's all kinds of world changing things going on. Price does the same thing. It doesn't matter when somebody hits that sell button or the buy button. The market doesn't care what the news is. It's either people are buying from greed or selling from fear. And you just have to identify this. So there's no doubt the market condition we are in right now for precious metals is different. It always is different. And there's definitely some very strong signs that something big is brewing with lots of gold going overseas to Shanghai. We're seeing institutions. We're seeing um you know a lot of big buying but by big big firms and things of central banks, right? So there's definitely something brewing. But again, you you can't just buy and hope. People have been waiting up for this move in silver, you know, and and a much bigger move in silver for like 20 years, you 25 years since I got into this. So, um I like to take profits, play the charts, not the the expectations or the news. >> We're going to get Chris's outlook for all these assets. I'm going to ask him what his forecast point forecast for prices of these assets that we've talked about towards the end of the interview. So, stay tuned. Don't forget to like, subscribe, hit that subscribe button to get daily updates and see Chris on next time. He's a regular on the show. Now, Chris, uh, before we move on to the next asset class, people are buying silver in droves at Costco. I've been getting personal anecdotes of [laughter] silver at Costco getting sold out. This is not an endorsement for Costco silver. I'm just giving you, you know, just [snorts] earshot whis whispers of what people are doing. I'm just saying Chris, there's a lot of retail interest for the physical right now. How would you differentiate strategies of investing in the physical versus trading in the paper market? You mentioned you wouldn't stay in this market as a trader given how volatile it is currently. But what about those people who just want to go buy a bunch of bull at at a Costco or wherever? >> Yeah, it's tough. I mean, there's a lot I just read an article about how strong the retail buyers are, right? So, I believe buying, you know, gold and silver right now, I mean, I think you've missed a good chunk of the move. You're you're in for a roller coaster ride. Um, I think if you're just a retail investor, it's you're not betting the farm. You're not putting, you know, huge huge amounts down of your life savings. It really doesn't matter in the long run. Precious metals should move higher and go up to the upside. I think buying right now, I think you're buying kind of at nosebleleed territory. you it might take still several years or a year or two to get back to where it is after the the dust settles. I think in 2026. Um but I always like there's a million different ways to trade precious metals. I've always been one for just buying brand name bullion. I don't buy anything fancy. I don't buy coins with all kinds of stamps on it and different stuff and pay all these big premiums. I just want ounces of the cheapest metals I can get of gold and silver. So I don't think there's anything wrong with going out and buying rounds. It doesn't matter where you buy them. Um, I think if you're a strategic investor and you you it's a chunk of your your wealth versus just going out to buy some for retail to be like, "Hey, I bought some rounds." Uh, it's it's a different game. I think you need to move and as you look at these cycles, I mean, you you really don't want to wait, you know, 20 or 30 years to get back to break even or wait another, you know, 10 or 15 years to get back to break even. And that's where potentially people could be buying right now. they might not see big returns for 3 4 5 10 15 years for all we know and uh for Christmas I know a lot of people gave silver rounds for Christmas and that aren't in the precious metal space. So that is one of the reasons why we're in this frothy big volatility in the market when the retail people are piling in. That's when we keep seeing these bouts of big selling of institutions and savvy investors saying, you know what, this is a little overdone and they're dumping contracts or dumping metals positions to lock in gains because usually the retail are the last people in >> uh on the S&P, you've touched on that. Any changes in the cycles that we've discussed for uh 2026? And um I'll let you comment this however you like. we can take a look at. We'll revisit your cycles chart one more time where I believe we're in stage three. Uh I wonder if we still are. And uh you commented to me offline that 2026 may be a year of several trend reversals. So walk us through the thought process. Tell us about these trend reversals and what we're looking for exactly, Chris. >> Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, in a nutshell, I think you're right, David. I believe we're in this stage three. Now, obviously, the indices have been pushing to some all-time highs over the last several well, over the last couple years, dragging higher with the magnificent 7, but we are in this topping phase in the market here. And I do think we're going to see a bigger correction. And and as you kind of mentioned, when we look at the the the cycles here, we're this blue cycle is the stock market cycle. And and what we're seeing is precious metals across the board are shooting higher. They're they're the warning signs saying, you know, don't trust governments, don't trust stocks, don't trust, you know, the economy. You start putting your money elsewhere to protect it. So physical metals is a store of value. If you if you look at energy sector like XLE or OIH, they're trading up near all-time highs and holding their value. Even though oil has been moving down for several years, industrials continue to do very well. So I believe we're in this topping phase of the of the equities market. And when we look at the business cycle, which you and I have touched on before, the the AI, this innovation phase, AI has been is like huge. Obviously, it's the biggest companies dragging the indices higher. Uh even though the stock market is very very sector rotation, one month it's one sector's hot, the next month a different sector is hot. It's not like all sectors are just going up and driving this market up. It's just little pockets here and there. And so this innovation of AI is dragging and stretching this stage three market to all-time highs and really kind of dragging or kicking the can down the road. But it's usually the sign that we're getting close to an economic peak. And right now we're already seeing this with the data centers. There's been the amount of venture capital money and investments going into the AI space makes every other bubble dollar-wise look like chump change. And so we're starting to see people not getting funding for data centers. There's u all kinds of stuff starting to happen that things actually might be slowing. And so I think we're getting we're in we're in this global expansion, but I do think it's about to stall out and we're going to have we're starting to get some signs early signs that there's caution that we're going to start to fall. And usually once we get these signs of weakness, the stock market is already going down. And I believe January, February are going to be very difficult months, going to be choppy. And I think it's going to set the tone. And then once the markets go down and then the bad news, which usually follows the stock market afterwards, that adds fuel to the selling and the fear in the market. So, uh, that's that's kind of what I where I think we are now. These are economic cycles. These don't these obviously don't happen a month here, a month there. They can take months or sometimes years to slowly unfold. But it is I believe we're in this major topping phase. And it's just a matter of time for the momentum to stall out, I think, in the AI space a bit more. And we we'll start to get a little bit of more neutral and negative news that will kind of slow down the buying >> the the trends that were already in place in 2024 and 2025, meaning strong headwinds for upward momentum. What technical and or fundamental trend reversals would need to be in place for that to stop? In other words, what needs to happen to either the economy or the markets uh or signals you're watching that basically would be a clear signal for you Chris as a trader uh that the winds of upward movement are blowing the other way. >> Yeah. I mean, if we kind of maybe zoom back on the S&P 500, we just go back to these previous uh bull and bare markets that took place. Usually you're going to have the market moving up and and eventually you need to have some very sharp selloff. Usually a 20 plus percent selloff. Let me let me I'll just zoom into 2007 here a bit more. So usually you're going to have some some big pullback and then the market tries to stabilize. And as as you know uh David a typical the definition of like a bare market is 20% or more. And so the market did pull back in 2007 about 20%. And while people saw even in 2022 we had a 20% correction. It was a to me a very controlled a baby bare market. What happens after that is very critical. We come into this this market condition where it puts in this pause this complacency phase. People think, "Oh, we just had a bare market. That was 20 20% correction, and then it starts to move higher." And and so what I'm waiting for is a probably a 20% correction or more, and then probably a multi-month pause, and then if it breaks to the downside, that's when you go into a stage four decline and where huge, huge damage is done. This is where the layoffs, job, jobless games, everything starts to spike. um you know all kinds of bankruptcies start to go through the roof. You you can't get funding for anything. The mortgages become impossible to get. So we need we need to see this big sell-off in the market and then some big pause and then when it starts to break down from that that's when things are going to get ugly. So price is always the number one indicator that you need to follow as an investor. And so I think for this for this market it really depends on how things want to crash. If we were to just take a line here and say, "Okay, well, here's about a 20% pullback." We're going to need to see the market go into a very strong pullback. And then we'll have to see what it forms. It might form some type of of shoulder here and uh some type of bounce. It might just trade sideways and be very very tame and then it could start to break down and form another move and then it could it could really go rapid. So it all depends on how much price pulls back the chart pattern that it forms and then if it starts to break down from there then then I'll be very excited in terms of buying inverse ETFs when the market goes and starts to collapse that last you know 30 40 plus percent uh potentially that's when you place some inverse ETFs cuz the market is just neverending selling more or less. Uh so those those are the biggest things is price. uh we'll probably see um most things start to sell off at some point. What'll happen is actually um if we go back to 2007, you know, over here in 2007, we saw the stock market fall 20%. And gold ended up shooting higher. Money came out of equities, moved into precious metals, and that's what I'm thinking we're still going to see. We might have that big push where we see everything and gold hit 5200. But then once you break that floor or sorry once we see the selling in the equities and gold shoot higher eventually when gold and precious metals start selling off and start moving down with down days of the equities markets that's when I'm going to be okay. You know what I really think we're everything now is starting to get sold. the the fear starts to grow and and so what happens is investors take this big hit and then markets trade sideways for a couple months and they start to get scared and then as soon as gold and their other investments start to move down they're in shock and they're worried it's going to do the same thing as the stock market. So eventually gold will start to sell off with the stock market and uh when they both start moving down together that'll be the sign going okay this I think I think the move is over in metals I think we're going to go into a stage four but uh stage fours don't happen till way over here. You need a lot of damage done and by the time we get over here we're probably going to start to have some pretty bad news. We're probably going to have something blow up. We're going to see all kinds of weird things happen. And who knows what it'll be and what they'll label the next bare market. What you know the title will be the tech bubble. The it'll probably be the AI bubble or something, right? But um that's kind of what I'm looking for is is price first. And so there's a lot of damage that needs to be done. >> How many red bars do we need to see? How many down days do we need to see before we can confirm a bare market and not just a technical correction? Or is it a specific level that you have to target to confirm this bare market? How does it work, Chris? Yeah. So, there there's a few different ways when you're looking for like a bare market phase. I generally like to look at a good example here's this dotted line, this moving average. So, I like to look at the daily chart. It's great because you can zoom out very far, but it gives you a granular, you know, five bars per week. So, it gives you a granular look. This moving average here that I like to use is 150day simple moving average. And generally, it it's pretty straightforward. If it's sloping up and prices above it, you're generally in a stage two. when price is below it or it's flatlining or or sloping down, then you're and it's mixed, then you're generally in a stage three. And then when it's sloping down and price is naturally below it, [clears throat] then you're in a stage four. So, it's a very passive way. It's not great for timing um when to exact when exactly everything happens, but it definitely gives you an idea of uh how the markets are stalling out. You know, are they starting to lose momentum? And same with the 50-day moving average. the 50-day moving average is pretty pretty good. And you know, you can usually start to see if we have, you know, 20 or um or or 40 days, uh which is two trading months, more or less, one to two trading months of sideways or lower pricing, we start to see the 50-day move down. And it's a pretty good barometer. If the 50-day is sloping down, you really don't want to be involved in the markets. It's showing some pretty mass weakness. And of course, if the 50-day moving average ends up below the 150day, then you're, you know, it's kind of like a a death cross. A lot of people use the 50 and the 200 day. I like the 50 and the 150day. So, if the 50-day crosses below it, then you probably don't really want to be holding stocks because you have the long-term trend is down and the short-term trend is down, you don't have any trend in your favor, and you got to trade with the trend. So, you better flip the script and and start focusing on things that go up in value while the stock market falls. A lot of people play the VIX. A lot of people play inverse ETFs. Um there's there's a different ways you can play that uh as it unfolds. >> All right. Uh I want to talk about Bitcoin now. Let's move on to Bitcoin. $87,000 $88,000 now on the 30th of December. And uh the longer term trend has well depending what depending on what time frame you're looking at but um many people on my show and some others have been calling Bitcoin is a leading indicator for stocks and uh you know there's all sorts of uh thoughts and reasoning behind this or perhaps people people who dispute this have their own reason as well reasoning as well. I'd like to get your take on whether or not Bitcoin typically leads stocks because what you've seen here is a fall from $125,000 to $88,000 which is not insignificant even for Bitcoin over the last 2 or 3 months. So walk us through the trends that Bitcoin is seeing currently and second whether or not these trends may translate to other markets like stocks. >> Yeah. Yeah. So let's look at this from a a [clears throat] big picture standpoint. If you look at this from a long-term investor, you could just say, okay, well, Bitcoin has these series of cycle lows. So, technically, it right now I see Bitcoin at a very critical cycle low. The long-term trend is, you know, it's making a series of of higher lows. It's also making a series of higher highs. That's the definition of a uptrend. Now, we we do see this green line, which is the 150 day 150day moving average. it's actually starting to slow down and price is is below it. We haven't really seen that, you know, through this phase. So, that is an early warning sign saying, okay, well, the 150 days sloping down. It's had a very sharp correction, 35%. The 50-day moving average is also below it, very strongly below it. So, you can say that, you know, it, you know, at this point is maybe putting in a top. Um, but again, I'm not a fan of this. I believe we're going to see it break to the downside and sell off. And I think probably the weekly chart when you get rid of some of the noise, the weekly chart actually, I think, shows the chart pattern very clearly. If we just zoom in here, uh this this little pennant formation actually points to a dramatically lower price. Uh if we just take this move and [clears throat] to this pennant, it's actually showing around 48,000 uh dollars per Bitcoin. So you got the move down. This pennant formation is known as a pause. It's a bearish pattern. Whatever this first half of the move is, you're going to have the second half usually around the same amount. And of course, that is going to pierce this low. We're going to see this low get broken. We're going to see probably this low get broken as well. The market loves to break these standout very significant lows. And of course, this is going to catch a ton of people offguard if that's what the charts are pointing to. Now, you know, there's there's so Bitcoin has big mixed signals. I wouldn't be touching it right here. I actually would be leaning more sue more to it breaking to the downside and collapsing than I would be accumulating it. I know a lot of people keep saying they're buying it. This is an opportunity. But, I mean, the space is is really difficult to navigate with with um analysis because everybody has this like natural bullish bias on Bitcoin. everybody pumps it up and um you know I I try and just give it how it is. The long-term chart is up. We're at a cycle low, but the cycle seems to be stalling and there isn't a clear signal on it. If anything, I'd be betting to the downside. So, that's that's my take for uh 2026. And I don't know if it's going to maybe it's going to lead the stock market. I've never really looked at it as a leading indicator. I kind of see it more so following the NASDAQ a little bit, but the fact that it's floundering like it's just refusing to get a bounce here is not a good sign. So, if the stock market has been moving and drifting higher and it's been trading sideways, what happens when the stock market goes down? This thing is going to freef fall. So, it's not a good-looking chart in my opinion. >> Okay. Can we move on now to uh the dollar and treasuries? maybe treasuries first and uh get your take on yields and how that may or may not translate to the dollar. >> Yeah, I mean I like to I like to look at TLT for the overall kind of the the bond market of what's going on. We're where clearly the bond market is still in a downtrend. It's trying to to carve out a bottom and it looks like bonds actually still might want to move a little bit lower. Um this is a this is a difficult time to get into something. typically when big volatility kicks in these uh like you know this is a big kind of topping phase and I believe now we're kind of more so into a bottoming phase. It's a it's a time where you carry a lot of risk. You don't you're uncertain. You don't know which way it's going to go. You don't know if this is a pause before it goes higher. If this is a pause before it goes a whole lot lower. Um so I'm not a I don't have clear direction on where bonds are going. We need to let it build more of a base and start to break out. And just like the stock market needs to put in a big top and break down significantly before we can clearly say, "Oh, we're in a we're in a bare market." Well, bonds are in a bare market and they're trying to carve out a bottom. But we need to see a significant rally in bond prices to break some highs and start to make some higher lows and higher highs before we can get bullish. And so obviously if if we see TLT, we see bond prices go up, that means yields, interest rates will be going down. And so at this point, I'm pretty much neutral. I think we're going to see the Fed kind of kick the can. I don't think we're going to see huge moves in the interest rates. I think until I think 2026, we will start to see movement. I think we're going to see weakness in the market in the economy. Rates could start to come down and then we'll start to see bonds come to life. But, uh, I think the Fed is pretty pretty neutral. I don't think they're going to do a whole lot at this point until there's a lot of pain on on Wall Street, until there's a lot of pain in the general public and um potentially like unemployment or bankruptcies start to spike. I think that's when we'll start to see rates pick up speed to the downside and I think we'll see bonds start to to move higher. >> The fact that the um 2-year yield is expected to fall as the Fed continues easing into 2026, how do you play that as a trader? Do you look at that? I I don't look at that. I don't have the two-year. I got the the five and the 10-year, but um no, I don't I don't trade based around yields. So, uh it's not something I focus on. >> All right. And the dollar then, the DXY. Tough year for the DXY. Tread reversals in the DXY at all in 2026. Chris, >> I I do I do think we're going to see it either it's either going to trade sideways and hold its ground or I do think we're going to see it have some type of rally uh potentially a very significant rally. Uh right now it's it's doing the same type of thing. It's trying to carve out a bottom very similar to TLT the bond market. It's I I believe it's carved a bottom. It has put in if we look at the chart here it has put in a you know a higher low at this point. It's also put in it's got a high. has got a higher high. So, it is technically channeling and trending up. It has definitely pulled back deep into a support zone. It needs to find some traction here, but I do think we could see the market uh we could see the dollar have a significant move up and that might create some serious headwind for the precious metal space as well. So, if the stock market does start to sell off, I think where we could naturally see the the US dollar start to strengthen. We saw that in in 2022. uh we saw the the um let me just go back to the daily chart here. Uh when we go back and look at uh 2022 the stock market sold off and the dollar shot higher. So I think we could see the stock market sell off and the dollar move up. I think the dollar index could get back to 109. I think it could could get back to 114 which I think the majority of people don't think is possible and everybody's expecting precious metals to skyrocket the dollar to die and usually that that's one of the one of my key tools is we have these sentiment tools to help us gauge I'm like okay at a fairly significant low and for the dollar and and people hate it so much that I think we're going to start to see it move higher and of course everybody loves precious metals which means and we're seeing the volatility and the general public start to move in and buy it at every corner store, that is usually the sign that metals are going to top. And so when you feel really good about something, that's usually when you need to be the most worried. Uh so I follow what other when other people get excited, you know, I'm usually looking for the for the opposite move that everyone else is. >> Okay, Chris, we promised the audience we would give uh point forecasts before we take off for the new year. So let's just go in order of presentations. We started with silver and gold. I've heard silver could go as high as $100 in 2026 before a reversion. The fact that it's seen significant resistance at 50, sustained above 50, and then now we're seeing obviously resistance at 80. I wonder how likely 100 is. Now, of course, is the higher it goes, the more likely $100 in triple digit silver becomes because the percentage gain is smaller. uh the elusive $100. What needs to happen for the price to hit that target this year, Chris, if it will? Maybe that's not your view. >> Well, yeah, it depends on how you look at it. I do I do think silver could spike dramatically higher. I mean, when you look at the log scale and this giant bull flag pattern, I mean, uh this isn't isn't a pattern I I've ever really showed anywhere because it does point to some crazy high pricing for silver. So based on this run up from the 2000 low and the big pullback, it's really just breaking breaking out of the high that we saw back in 2011, this tells us kind of, you know, that that upside target. It's 57 was the upside target for it. And then we had to drop down to intraday charts, which you and I had did in a previous video that pointed to around 72. Um I we're right now we're in bubble phase. So silver can can pop and take off. And I I do still think we could see one big push and silver could spike potentially, you know, past 100 very quickly. I think it could be short-lived. I think it'll be an emotional driven move. It'll be pure FOMO. Everyone piles in to to get involved and then it'll probably reverse and come back down. But I do believe in what you said and some of your other guests saying once it does top out and pull back, I do believe it's going to hold above 50. I think it's it's broken that threshold and so now I do think it's going to naturally um it's going to become the new floor for silver. May maybe down to 40. 40 to 50 will be the new floor which is great and it'll build a base and then I think over time when it starts to break out then we'll be off to the races to 100 plus for silver. Uh I guess again I'm really bullish on metals. It's just short term. I'm getting a little nervous and we just have to let this bubble burst and and then we're just going to have to digest and wait for the next foundation that like the next base like this to build out. Does it take 6 months? Does it take 5 years uh before it starts that next big run? We don't know. But the volatility and the the crowd psychology of people moving in is telling us we're on the last few bars. uh when it comes to the monthly chart, we probably have one or two bars left and we're going to see the metals probably top out across the board for potentially a year or so. >> Uh gold, similar question for gold, but gold has not had this kind of parabolic move in recent weeks, but uh similar question, Chris. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think this chart kind of shows it. I still think we could see gold move up to 51 5200 and then I think it's going to pull back. I think that's going to happen in 2026. um the pullback might be short-lived. It might only be 3 69 months and then boom, we're back off to the races and and heading higher, but obviously if if it does pull up to this 51, 5200, it will have a really steep correction. I think a very sharp one and it'll be a huge opportunity to either buy more um or to get back in depending on if you sell, you know, once it starts to peak out here. But I do believe we're going to see gold try and grind higher still for another month or two and then I think we're going to see a very sharp pullback. But I think by the end of next year, gold will already have bottomed and we'll be and same with silver and we'll be moving higher and I think it'll be a great time to get into I think miners that's I think that's when miners are really going to explode. They're going to build a base here over the over the next several months or 2026 and then I think we're going to see a very big move together. So, I think by the end of next year, the precious metal space will be very exciting. Uh, similar to what we saw in 2007. It's fairly short-lived correction, and then boom, you just head off into a multi-year rally, and you'll want to own probably a lot of metals, a lot of miners, and probably uranium and whatever the new the new big sector, which will probably be like data centers and AI and robotics, uh, you know, during the next major bull cycle. >> And flipping the script now to stocks. We've talked about stocks a lot. Uh let me frame the question a little bit differently. At what point would an uh would a rally in S&P in the S&P 500 or any of the tech stocks for that matter convince you that the bull market is not yet over? In other words, uh how much further can we go >> before the trend reversals? Or on the other hand, if it continues to go higher, at what point will you change your mind about a reversal altogether? >> Yeah, those are those are good questions. So as much as as bearish as I am, it doesn't mean we are betting on the falling market. When you look at our our our weekly chart of the S&P 500 here, you know, we entered this is back in 2023. This it entered into a new a new bull market. We saw a big move up. Then we had the the um tariff market saying move aside earlier this year. Then we got back into the market. We are still in a bull market. Uh it's just to me it's not a raging bull market in terms of all the sectors are going bananas and exploding and everything's popping and breaking out what we're seeing right now. So we're in a bull market and the thing is it's not a a full-on sector, you know, broadbased rally. When we're in a brand new fresh bull market, we tend to see sectors create bullish sharp patterns and they break out and they run. But what we've been seeing for the last several years is a sector will have a nice chart pattern and then it'll break out and then it'll fake out and reverse and crash. And so you get into a trade, it works for a few days and then just falls out of bed and then collapses and drops 10, 15, 20%. Sectors have been doing that for a couple of years and that's not the sign of a healthy market. You want you want the majority of sectors to be moving higher when they have a breakout. There's big volume behind it and price runs and you see 20 or 30 or 60% moves in these sectors to the upside that follow within a short period of time, but we're not getting any of that. So, um, if we start to see all sectors really start to take off and break out and run, then I'll be like, you know what, I think we're rejuvenated and we're we're still in a bull market, but I think we're starting kind of a new wave that this bull market could have another big move. And, you know, the market does have this this pattern right here on the weekly chart for the spy. It has been consolidating for for a couple of months, a few months. The longer something trades sideways, the the bigger the move it can have. So there is potential for another nice move and if we do get another push higher, the question is do all the sectors start to break out or is it still just precious metals and AI or you know AI is losing its momentum. It's definitely doesn't look good. The Magnificent 7 doesn't look good all of that stuff. So it's going to come down to what the stocks in general are doing. But um for me to change my mind at this point, I mean I I still feel like a big bare market is coming. But um really the key is to follow price and that's the biggest thing is we're still long the markets right now. We're long gold, we're long equities. And um yeah, as bearish as I am, the trend is still up. I'm just making sure you're prepared because when a bare market hits, it wipes out most people's retirements usually within like 6 to 8 months, right? It's you work your whole life to to lose it all. And that's what I try and protect people from is you just always have to be prepared, but ride the bull. Like that's that's it. >> Okay. Then final question for you, Chris. Uh the most bullish and most bearish assets you're on for 2026. >> The most bullish and the most bearish. H I [clears throat] I kind of feel like it depends on what you consider. So for for example, I think Bitcoin will have a very precipitous fall if the market breaks down. There is a lot of room for Bitcoin to get to really collapse percentage-wise. It'll it'll be a fairly big move. The the other one that I'm pretty bearish on is the Magnificent 7. I believe there has been a lot of money, a lot of general public, a huge volume going in here that when it starts to sell off, there's going to be a very precipitous and a quick exodus and we're going to see a sharp sharp uh selloff in price where it's going to move in a big way. It's it's a mass psychology play. It is not only um small investors, but it's big retirees. like it really the Magnificent 7 in AI has sucked in everybody and you can see that with the amount of funding going into everything AI right so when that tide turns the once you know um darlings that everybody wants are going to become probably one of the most hated and they'll be like holy crap like things could fall 50 60 80% some of these tech companies doesn't matter what their earnings are these stocks can still get hammered and fall and become o over sold become actually undervalued uh because of this type of scenario where people just keep taking losses and it's a steady stream of millions of investors around the world every day a different batch hitting the threshold of like I can't take it anymore they call their broker or they sell their their their position so the magnificent 7 I think is going to have a really precipitous fall and reset the financial markets. >> Okay, great. Well, uh Chris, thanks so much for your contributions in 2025. We'll look forward to more in 2026. Where uh where can we find you and what can we expect to learn from you when we do? >> Yeah, sure. Well, uh the best spot to go is go to my website, the technical traders. And my whole mission here is to help you avoid bare markets, protect your lifestyle, have sleep better at night. And that that's what I do more or less. I help people if they've missed the rally, I help you stay in the rallies. I help you not have to worry about a market top because we can identify when things reverse and turn around. Um, so this is what I do with this newsletter is I simply share my portfolio, my strategy. We take the same trades. I have 5 to [snorts] 12 ETF trades every year depending on how many waves roll through the stock market, new cycles and uh trends and we just navigate the markets um in a way that's really slow and steady. It's a bunch of first, second base hits. It doesn't matter if you have a financial collapse, you've got flash crashes, you got COVID, you got 22 2022 bare market, we just continue to grind our way higher. We have um high average returns. We have very low draw downs and we're never going to like blow up our account with this strategy, which is the nice thing. If you're close to retirement or retired, the last thing you want to do is get hit with a bare market. We don't have to worry about all that. And I have a special going on right now which if you um were to go to the website, we're actually giving away free physical gold to every subscriber who joins before midnight on New Year's, so tomorrow. And on top of that, you get a 1-hour video call. We can get on a call, a group call. We talk about the markets. We can go through all kinds of different things. And um and so we've got a special package that if you you get our package, you get all of our services, our hottest sectors, our band strategy, you get our technical investor strategy, which the the technical investor strategy is tells us like this. It tells us when we're in a bull market, when we're in a bare market, when we're in a bull market, just knowing if the tide is going up, if you should own equities, or if it's going down and you should step aside. We we break it all down from long-term trends all the way to short-term uh sector trading. And um we even have options as well. So that's uh that's what we do and it's at our website and u we've got a special right now. >> Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much once again. Uh we'll see you soon in 2026, Chris. And uh appreciate everything you're doing for us. See you. >> Thanks, David. A pleasure. Thanks for having me and have a great New Year's >> and thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, follow Chris in the comments down below or description down below. And happy new year to you as well.