Raw Transcript: Gold Price At Tipping Point? Analyst Called Bull Rally, Updates Shocking Prediction | Gary Wagner

We haven't seen gold move in this manner long-term on a monthly basis since 2008. And the same can be said for gold. There's going to be an upper limit in which it just becomes so overbought that traders look to see a lower pricing and corrections. China has 13 straight months of accumulation. That tells you something because they've got the ability to buy and hold and they feel that that is the best asset to keep in their central bank. Gary Wagner is back. He's the editor of the goldfor.com. Our final interview with him of this year before we get 2026 underway. Gary's been pretty much spot on all year about gold and silver. We're going to get his update for what's going to happen by the end of the year and into Q1 2026. Welcome back to the show, Gary. Congratulations. As I was telling you offline, you're very well in demand everywhere because you've made some very important correct calls all year. People can check out Gary's last interview with me in uh link down below. So, you can see what he said in our prior conversation and um yeah, the range in which you've called for which you've called gold has been pretty much correct. So, let's get your update on what's next. Welcome back, Gary. Thank you for having me back and uh it's great to be back as my last interview of the year. Also, as I said, I'm saving the best for last, David. And that is certainly uh your interviews. I appreciate that. I appreciate that. I want to start by talking about what happened this week earlier this week at the FOMC meeting. Take a look at what Jerome Pow had to say about reserve management purchases. Accordingly, at today's meeting, the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities, mainly Treasury bills, for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time. Such increases in our securities holdings ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range and are necessary because the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities, including currency and reserves. As detailed in a statement released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reserve management purchases will amount to $40 billion in the first month and may remain elevated for a few months to alleviate expected near-term pressures in money markets. Thereafter, we expect the size of reser reserve management purchases to decline, though the actual pace will depend on market conditions. In our implementation framework, an ample supply of reserves means that the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates are primarily controlled by the setting of our administered rates rather than day-to-day discretionary interventions in money markets. People are commenting that this sounds like the beginning of QE again. And they've made a commitment to yeah, like you've heard, make purchases for the short end of the curve. As we're speaking today on the 11th of December, gold is at $4,300 and silver is at 63.5. uh just retracing from its previous high of 64 over 64 and so these are unprecedented levels for silver and gold is up 2% on the day. I wonder how much of this move is a reflection of what you just heard Gary that more money supply is about to hit the market. I think for a large part it is a reflection of comments made by Powell. Uh while we were all expecting them to maintain current interest rates, the fact that they're adding to their liquidity base by huge purchases, what $40 billion on a monthly basis is something that came unexpectedly. And therefore the reaction that we're seeing in both gold and silver with silver moving to new all-time record highs and gold moving within somewhat striking distance of the record highs about $6070 away. That was to be expected after we saw the comments by chairman Powell. Absolutely. We weren't expecting it. We're seeing the precious metals react to it today as well as yesterday. Okay, let's take a look at your chart. Let's jump straight into the charts, Gary, and get your updated outlook. So, previously you had commented on I think 40 $4,300 was your was your upper target. We we're we're at that right now. So, do you have do you have an upgrade? Yeah. Basis, the most active February futures contract. That's what we're looking at here. We're currently 4310. My sentiment is with about two weeks left in the year, I would not be surprised for gold to challenge the all-time record closing price above 4370. And you know, now we're only about $60 away. So, it's not a huge stretch to see gold move another $60 in two weeks. could be much higher considering that today alone uh gold moved up about what $51 or 1.2%. So we could see that very achievable by the year uh by the end of the year, excuse me, or sooner especially after today's huge breakout in both gold and silver. Okay. Well, any uh potential headwinds that you're looking at on the horizon? Obviously, as far as gold is concerned, the first level of any kind of technical resistance comes at the all-time record high and that is roughly 4370. It's different for silver because silver is at all-time record highs. And like gold, when gold was trading back in September all the way up to uh October the 20th when it hit the all-time record high and closing price. Um it could easily catch back up to that. Silver is a different story because we're in uncharted territory as we were in gold back in October as it ran to the record high. It's very interesting how we've got different forces at play. On the one hand, you've got uh uh the POW, what the statements made by Jerome Powell just just that we just heard, Gary, and we have quantitative easing potentially on the horizon. Now, we also have uh interest rate differentials being more of a factor. So, the Bank of Japan is raising rates. Uh the Bank of Canada, I believe, is holding rates steady where it's believed to be doing so the next meeting. And the FOMC, as you know, is in a mission to get rates down, not just now, but several times. So, we're looking at potentially a weaker dollar if you just follow what interest rate differentials typically do. Absolutely. We can uh quickly pull up a dollar chart to see what we have seen. This is in hanken. We'll move. You can see that back on the 20th of November, the dollar index was well above 100. It's moved roughly two full percents in just about a month, a little under a month. So that's a pretty big move for the dollar on a technical basis. Even though it's at 98378, it could easily move uh excuse me 98.378. It could easily move to 9775, which would be the first level that we would see if it breaks through 98.26, 26 which is very close to current prints on the dollar. How that will affect gold and silver? There's obviously a completely inverse relationship between uh dollar strength and gold weakness 100% correlation but they tend to move in opposing directions obviously because both the uh gold and silver are paired against the dollar. So that's going to happen. Gold prices have continuously hit all-time highs this year in 2025. Stellar Gold in the mining industry is a name worth watching. Today's sponsor, Stellar Gold, is a gold developer with two of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Canada. The Tower Gold Project in the well-known Timmans Mining Camp and the Carac Gold Project in the Northwest Territories. They just released plans for the towers and the numbers are impressive. The project could deliver a $2.5 billion after tax net present value at spot gold price and produce $273,000 ounces annually over 19 years. Backed by a proven management team with a relentless drive for success, Stellar is positioned to unlock serious value for investors. To learn more, go to stellar gold.com/davalin in the link down below or scan the QR code here. And don't forget to read their cautionary statements, forwardlooking information, and risk disclosures, which are all available on the website and on Cedar. I want to flip over to my chart and just take a look at silver versus gold. I I don't want I don't I don't want to talk about exclusively silver right now, but just to show a comparison here. It's one thing to have silver catch up to gold as some analysts are saying that's what's happening right now. But it's another issue when silver is outperforming gold by orders of magnitude. when gold has been flat ever since October. If you take a look at October 17th to now, gold's actually down. So, we haven't gold hasn't even retraced its previous alltime high yet. In the same period since late October, silver's up 20%, gold's up 1%. So, flat flat gold up 20% on silver. The notion that silver has usually lagged behind gold and plays catch-up at a certain period, that hasn't always consistently been the case. If you just I'm I'm scrolling back here and it it just looks like uh if this chart would allow me to do so. It looks like gold and silver typically move together in tandem uh with silver mostly outperforming gold during bull markets. Again, last two years has been a little bit different with silver lagging. But uh from a technical perspective, you're looking at something that has typically moved together and yet at the same time in the last 3 months, gold is up 18%, silver's up 50%. Like you told me offline, it's a runaway train. How do you analyze these technicals? Do you look at silver and say this has run up too far compared to its benchmark, gold, or do you look at gold and say it's time for gold to start playing catchup now? And gold looks relatively undervalued. Well, what I what I can say is that we have typically seen both of them move in tandem. However, on moves up, silver tends in terms of percentage gains to outperform gold. Reciprocally, when they're in a corrective period, when they're moving to lower prices, the opposite is true. Uh you get silver outperforming or having a greater draw down in a percentage basis than you do gold. Now, we're still seeing that, but they have really uncoupled in terms of what we've seen recently in which silver has just taken off and I believe is playing catchup to gold's move to the all-time record high and that occurred quite some time ago because that occurred during the last couple of weeks of October and silver was not was relatively flat at that point in terms of gains and then silver took off with a mind of its own. Let's say it uh definitely is outperforming gold in terms of percentage gains. And now that it is at a new all-time record high, it becomes more difficult to peg where silver could go. I we're making assumptions as to where it might go by the end of the year, where it might go next year. But these are assumptions because as a market technician, we have no data at how silver performed above $60. Simply put, it's never been here before. And so because of that, it makes it much more uh difficult to really predict where it would go. Although I I do believe it's possible that we will see silver continue to move up. We could see it move really as as high as 68. That's a tremendous push, but I believe that is within the possibility of probabilities by the end of the year. Uh gold is just trying to play catch-up to the former all-time record high because it is below that now. And I believe that both of both gold can try to recapture the all-time record high. And I believe that silver, as hot as it's running, doesn't appear to show any signs of letting up. We could see higher prices uh as we go into the end of the year. There's still time left. We've got 20 days left in this year. So, a lot could happen. And I believe that the precious metals as a complex will remain strong. They will not give up much of what they have captured. And I would not be surprised to see silver close out the year at an all-time record high above current pricing and gold to recapture the all-time record high that it hit uh on the third week of October. So you're you're you're short-term bullish on both. Just looking at my chart here, Gary, going back to what you said, there is a divergence. Silver's up in the last 2 3 months. Gold's down slightly. Uh if you look at how they performed in the past again, moving up in the same direction, moving down in the same direction with silver having a higher beta. But when you see a divergence like that, um if I were trading this, I would say the risks are skewed to the downside for silver given this divergence. If I were to make a pair trade, I'd be short silver, long gold. Um anyway, can you evaluate that logic? Feel free to disagree if I didn't make any sense. No one knows what we'll see even over the next couple of weeks, let alone first quarter of next year. But I can say that I think that because silver has moved up so aggressively and has gone to an all-time record high, we will continue to see it move higher until it doesn't. And the first indication of that might come by the end of the year. But at the same time, I expect the precious metals to remain strong, to remain above certain target levels. I think that there is more room on the upside in silver. I think that gold could attempt to recapture the record highs of October, but that's still to be seen. But I believe that those are very much possibilities um because we are seeing such a interest in that asset class and the volume has been strong. It has returned in gold. it has increased in silver and for that reason I think that we as you as you put it we could see it sell off and that is a possibility but I also believe that there's a very strong possibility that it will remain at or higher at these current levels throughout the year correct in January may be correct in January that leads to my next question is where's gold and silver well let's focus on gold first fit into the longer term cycles do you have any charts showing uh multimonth or multi-year cycles and currently where we are in set cycles. Well, I've just put up and let me share that with uh our audience here. Yeah. And this is quite amazing. We are looking at a really long-term monthly chart and you can see on a candlestick chart, we're looking at green candles. Simply means that it closed above the opening price at the beginning of the month. It closed much higher. And you can see that really starting in January, we had a couple of months with very large moves. January, March, and then we had an acceleration back in September. That was the largest monthly move, but we've had strong moves. I wouldn't call this parabolic, although we can of course compress the chart, but it still isn't. Parabolic would be almost a right angle up. Um, but this is as strong as we have seen. The last time we saw gold run like this uh was back in '08. And you can see that's when gold ran from 811 up to 1,800. And if you look at the tact or the angle, the slope of this ascent, it is very similar to the slope that we're seeing now. So the one thing that we can say is that we haven't seen gold move in this manner long-term on a monthly basis since 2008. We know where that ended middle of 2011 2012 and that was with a record top at that time at about 1,800. So we could have more room to go, but at any moment a correction would be warranted. We haven't really seen gold correct since October of 23 on a monthly chart with the exception of September, November, and October of and December, excuse me, of 2024. We've pretty much seen it move straight up. It's consolidated a couple of times, but we've had no real corrections as we saw in March 2022. Again, this is a long-term monthly chart and which it corrected until November 2022. So, this is an unusual territory. A lot of it has to do, of course, with the dollar itself that has been under pressure. But most importantly, there is a a genuine shift to the asset class of the precious metals because many investors believe that there's an opportunity. We've seen that. Has it played out yet? I'm going to say that it could be close to the top, but there is more room to the upside. Take a look at this uh chart one more time on my screen. I've just added Ballinger bands to uh to to my chart. I know it's not something you look at very often. I'm just pointing out that gold's been trading near its upper 20 um I think it's 20 month yeah 20 month um moving average binger bands uh for basically since 2024 and it just doesn't seem to stop and it's not a very good timing indicator because last time this happened it was all throughout 2010 and 2011 and I I just wonder at what point uh you're looking at this and once maybe tips over to way above its upper limit. Uh then we're looking at a rollover here. I just want to know whether or not a 2012 type of situation is on the horizon. It listen on on a technical basis when we look at it historically and I I do look at Bowlinger bands. I've worked with John uh during many lectures years ago and I like the idea of of that as well as Tom Demar's idea of what we call sequential nines. um both of them look for potential tops and bottoms based on uh a numerical observation and I do think that what we're seeing is obviously an extremely overbought market but then we have to go back to the fundamentals because technicals are a way to mathematically explain what's actually going on in the environment and as I said the potential for dollar weakness exists greatly and continued dollar weakness that's going to be supportive of the metal doesn't mean they'll move up because if there's enough selling pressure, you can get either a period of consolidation or a downtick. This is a rather large rally when you consider that back in March of 2024, gold was at uh just above 2000. We have more than doubled that in a very very short period of time. But if you look back historically and I'm looking at a chart back to um really 2005 and gold's at 425 and then moves pretty much straight up to 1,800. We have seen that happen but at much lower pricing. So to answer your question is are we at a top? We have no technical evidence of that. But I think uh it was one of the Fed chiefs um that said trees don't grow to the sky. They never have. They never will. He was talking about interest rates. And the same can be said for gold. There's going to be an upper limit in which it just becomes so overbought that traders look to see a lower pricing and corrections, especially on a move that we have seen on a long-term basis. Because what I'm looking at is a monthly chart. Even if we go to a weekly chart, it looks even more extreme. From about 1,800 to 4,300, it's pretty much gone up without any really strong corrections. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see the price correct, but currently we don't have evidence of that. And by the time we have evidence of that, we will already have seen the top and be at lower pricing. So that's it's not giving us an indication of where it's going to get topheavy because as a technician we can only react to current pricing in relationship to where it's been. And it has been except for the correction and again this is a a really longterm chart a monthly chart but since October 25 when it corrected from roughly 4280 down to about 3990 we have seen it move back up and I believe that it will challenge the all-time record highs of October before we see it correct. That would be a likely point in which there would be resistance in the market and we could see it correct at that point. But until then, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to try to challenge the record highs that we have seen recently. Gary, can you uh pull up that chart once more and share your screen and then uh I want to take a look at how gold has performed historically when it comes to consolidating patterns. How long has gold consolidated every time it's it's moved sideways? In other words, historically speaking, how long do these sideways patterns usually last? Well, if we look back to uh March of 2023, goes around 2,000, and it stays in a consolidating manner, corrects down to about 1,800, and then still stays within that range, 1,900 all the way up until February of 2024. So you had February of 2024, um March of 23. So it can go for a long time. Then it made a spike up and the spike up took it as high as 2400. This is in April of 2024 and then it consolidates for about 6 months and then spikes higher. But really no correction. The first correction that we actually saw in gold in in this runup did not really occur until October of 24. Gold is at roughly 2700 and then trades down to about 2500. Not a big correction. Then it spikes higher to around 3,300 and it consolidates. And that's the last time we've seen a consolidation. Again, this is a very long-term monthly chart, but it consolidated for probably 8 to 10 months up until August of 25. And that's when uh gold moved parabolic from 3,300 to about 4,300. And that was the strongest of the parabolic moves we have seen recently. As a trader, do you think there's a difference between buying and holding? In other words, if indicators tell you to buy versus indicators tell you to stay long and hold, is that a fundamentally different philosophy? Well, that that's a different type of investor. There are investors that I believe have been accumulating gold from much lower prices. Um, my last big accumulation on my part was at around 1,500. I still believe in accumulating but at a much smaller ratio than I did back then because I believe that the upside while it is possible is much more limited than it was then. Yeah, we're in uncharted territory in both gold and silver when we look at a long-term chart and because of that it becomes difficult to predict the top because as a technician I'm looking for what happened when it was trading in the in at this area. In the case of gold, we can because gold has roughly been here, but it has broken above on a monthly basis the all-time record which was at 4,200. Now we're at 4300. And if I would have been asked at the beginning of the year, uh, what do you think about silver moving past 60 and gold moving past 4,300, I would ask, uh, you know, how much alcohol have you consumed? In other words, I would have thought that to be unrealistic. But lo and behold, that's what we're looking at and that's the reality. A lot of it has to do with the the dollar and dollar weakness. But I think it's a much more involved um investor concept than that. Stocks have been doing well, but the asset class of the precious metals have been something that have moved up over time, but they're moving consistently higher. They went parabolic, as I said, beginning in August of 2025 up to about October of 25 and then had a very very minute correction. And the correction was really from 4,200 down to 3,900. So, a couple of hundred after moving up from 3,300. So, it gave back about 20% of the gains. And that was the last leg of this extended rally. Uh where is the limit? Where could gold go next year? It could go much higher than it is now. Where could it go this year? I believe that it will make a play for the all-time record intraday highs when you look at a monthly chart and intra week closes. Okay. A few more follow-up questions before we end the conversation. Now, uh Gary, I think that leads to the fundamental question that a lot of traders, especially retail traders who aren't already in the gold market, are asking themselves is do I get in now? And you know, you don't have to give direct advice, but we we can talk about risk management here from a trader perspective because like you said, maybe the upside here is more limited than it was 2 years ago. Certainly in retrospect, that is the case. We don't know where the top is. We don't know where the bottom is. Timing tops and bottoms are is very difficult if not impossible. And so how do you go about how does one go about thinking about the question do I go in now or is it already too late and I should just wait for a correction not knowing when that may be not knowing if that will ever come. So you know missing out on future games is in itself a kind of a loss when you think about it because you're losing out on utility. Uh this has been a question I've been asked on multiple occasions over the last uh couple of weeks to say the least and my advice stays the same. For those who've been buying and accumulating physical gold or silver, they should continue to do so. But in terms of the ratio, their allocations per month or per quarter, they should either half it or take it down to 1/3. I would continue to accumulate until the data shows us that we've hit a potential top in gold and silver. We haven't. And so I would say to accumulate in a much less aggressive manner, but continue to accumulate because when we're at these levels, I don't want to say sky, it's not that the sky is the limit. There's going to be a top somewhere. It will correct somewhere. It has in the past. Uh could that change? Yes, but I think that's unlikely. There comes a point when any market is uh valued at in an overbought scenario and traders begin to either liquidate and pull profits um or look for it on the short side. I don't think we're there in gold or silver. But I don't think it will continue to gain value forever without either consolidating or correcting correcting. In the case of gold, we have seen it move up substantially higher, but as I said, it only corrected about $200 after moving $1,000 higher. That's not a deep correction. A deep correction could be giving back 60%. In other words, if it moves from a dollar to $2, uh, of giving back on that dollar gain, 50 or 60 is still considered an acceptable correction on a technical basis in a bull market. And we're not seeing anything like that. As I said, we saw it give back $200 after moving up $1,000. And that's only a 20% retracement. That's extremely shallow. As a technician, we don't even chart that as a potential uh correction. We look at something much deeper, something along a 30% correction as being a level that it could go to. We haven't seen that in gold. Silver has just as it makes these all-time record highs until it trades lower. I think we could see $68 by the end of the year. And as I said, I know that that's a stretch, but it is in the realm of possibilities. Uh gold, I think that it could recapture the record high and if it gets really bullish, look to test um just below 4,400, which are the intraweek highs. Um this is a monthly chart so an intramonth high uh before having a sizable correction. It remains highly bullish. Um my sentiment and I believe that gold and silver could consolidate at any moment but I don't see a correction from here to the end of the year. Could be wrong but that's at least what I I believe. Finally Gary now the macro forces we talked about are still supportive for gold. Uh at what point could they flip? So, going to 2026, what trends or trend reversals are you looking forward to that could flip the script and make you change your mind on the long-term uh bullish narrative? Certainly, uh we've talked about Fed monetary policy. We've talked about how loosening mon uh monetary policy and money supply expansion is bullish for gold, especially if the long end of the interest rate curve is going coming down. But what could change? Well, what I would look at additionally that we haven't brought up is the huge accumulation by central banks worldwide uh picking up physical gold. China being one of the biggest ones that they are going on 13 consecutive months of accumulation buying physical gold, hoarding it, putting it in their stockpile. Their central bank at least believes that in terms of strength of liquidity and strength of solveny in terms of the central bank rather than dollars, gold is the preferred asset to have because of the way that it maintains value and it maintains value in relationship to the dollar in a much stronger way. As long as central banks are accumulating, I think the trend is going to be hard to see it correct. hard because the central banks will buy those dips. China has 13 straight months of accumulation. That tells you something because they've got the ability to buy and hold and they feel that that is the best asset to keep in their central bank. And so that speaks in spades to me because the central banks typically in terms of asset accumulations make fairly smart moves. um if not, they're able to hold on to it if they're wrong. But they're not going to continue to add to a position um when they believe that there's a possibility of a top. And as long as the central banks are accumulating, there is a possibility of both gold and silver, specifically gold because that's what they're accumulating, uh to stay strong. Okay, great. Wonderful. Thank you very much, Gary. any uh personal uh new year resolutions that you want to share with us? Well, you know, as always, I I wish for myself as well as all of our viewers and everyone good health, prosperity, health first, prosperity, and happiness. And happiness is a component of being healthy and having a uh decent uh source of revenue so that you're not suffering financially. So health is number one, prosperity is number two. You put those two together and you add your family to it and you have happiness. And that's my desire to all of our viewers. Uh happy family, happy in terms of prosperity and happy health and happy gold and silver prices. But let's Well, that's a part of it. Absolutely. Let's end it here. Thank you very much for all your analysis and for sharing your thoughts on the show, Gary. We appreciate your insights. We're looking forward to catching up with you get again very soon in 2026. Happy New Year and happy uh Christmas holidays. Happy New Year. Happy holidays to all of our viewers. Absolutely. And we'll see you on the flip side in 2026. And uh thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, follow Gary. Links down below.