Raw Transcript: Arthur Hayes: They're About To Print Trillions, Bitcoin Mania Returns In 2026

It's crystal clear that they're going to print a lot of money. The Trump administration wants crypto to go up. They're going to repay us by paying taxes. Ethereum is going to rip. You know, I've got a $10 to $20,000 price target for the end of the cycle. How do you create a bubble that creates activity that pumps the assets that everybody owns so they feel good on uh in November of 2026. That is the altcoin season that we're going to see, I think, in 2026. This is a time now to deploy capital for an amazing 2026. I'm very pleased to welcome back to the show one of the giants in the crypto space, Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and the co-founder of BitMX. We're going to get his read on the current crypto markets, Bitcoin and altcoins, and what he likes right now. Arthur, welcome back to the show. Good to see you. Thanks for having me. I just want to start by talking about Bitcoin. Why has it stalled? Why are we still at 100K? It's pretty much flat on the year. Why has it underperformed stocks? I think that's what most people are wondering right now. Let's start with that. Yeah. So obviously everything is entry level dependent. If you've been in Bitcoin for a while, you're not that fussed about sort of the lackluster performance. But because we're humans and we like to make these artificial delineations of time uh in terms of January to November, whatever it is, then people are a bit like, oh, why aren't why isn't Bitcoin the best performing thing in, you know, the 11 months of 2025? Why is it gold? Why is it Nvidia? Whatever it is, right? and they forget that for those of us who've been in this game for a while that Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of all time, especially given the debasement of currencies around the world. But back to back to this year, we think about the main events of this year. The first was the inauguration of US President Trump and I came out with a call back in January of this year basically being like, well, where is the impulse for spending money? Where is the printed money going to come from? Trump's promising all these things. Can he actually make good on them? Obviously, the hype was massive. We had the Trump memecoin launch. And then just like we're in a simulation on January 20th, pretty much the market peaked and it was down in in the April liberation day was sort of the icing on the cake in terms of um uh Bitcoin. Poor price performance where we get down to like 73 74,000 on Bitcoin. And then those of us who, you know, had cash available were able to capitalize on sort of the the Trump taco trade. uh in terms of um the the trade negotiations with predominantly China and the rest of the world. And obviously if you've if you've been invested from April 9th until the present, you've done very very well in in in Bitcoin and gold and and some other things. And now if we come to the fall, you know, I posted a chart maybe a week and a half ago and it was my liquidity indicator starting with the debt ceiling um resumption or sorry raising of the debt ceiling in July 4th of 2025 this year. and myself and other macro analysts pointed out that the Treasury under Buffalo Bill Bessant had to raise cash to refill its coffers and they've done so to the tune of about a trillion dollars on a net basis. If you take a look at the Treasury General account over the same time period, there wasn't really any new source of dollar liquidity being pumped into the system. And we also saw stress in the funding markets, meaning that cash is tight within the US money markets. And Bitcoin pretty much was down 5 or 6%. Uh in line with dollar liquidity, down five or 6% from July. And so the question now is, okay, well, the government's been shut down. The Treasuryy's issued way too much debt. They haven't really spent any money over the last, was it 40 days, however long it's lasted. And now that we expect this to end because I guess the Senate voted or maybe the House voted. I don't know which one. The Treasury is going to get back to doing what it does best, printing money and spending it on stuff uh on goodies. Now, you might not like the goodies that they're spending the money on, but we don't care as crypto investors. As long as there's more dollars being created, our assets are going to benefit predominantly Bitcoin. And so, I think that this is the time now to start getting ready for the real show of Trump and Bessant. Now, for those of you who watch the US elections in various cities around uh the United States, the Democrats had a very good showing and essentially their message was uh free [ __ ] and anti-Trump. And I think what people forget is that US President Trump is one of the biggest free shitterters out there. He did the biggest free [ __ ] giveaway, the helicopter money, co stimulus checks, which prompted Biden to to follow suit. So, I know that the team red Republicans like to throw these words socialism and that's, you know, a dirty word in American politics around. They're just as socialist as the Democrats. It's just that they hand the money out to big corporations and the Democrats hand it out to migrants. It doesn't matter. We don't care. Take your political ideology out of it. You know, put that express yourself at the ballot box. You want to make money. It doesn't really matter where the money is going. It's just that it is created and Bitcoin benefits. And so I think that if the team red Republicans want to have any shot of winning the US midterm elections next November, forget about China, forget about trade war, it's all about printing money and handing it out. Whether that's to build weapons, to build rare earths, to supercharge AI, all the things that the Republicans like to fund. They're going to print the money to make sure that happens and so that their constituency feels the love going into November and shows up at the ballot box. And that's what 2026 is all about. And now we have this awesome opportunity to get in before it's crystal clear that they're going to print a lot of money. Right now there's a little bit of uncertainty about is there going to be enough liquidity. Are we at the hot the top of the 4-year cycle? This is a time now to deploy capital for an amazing 2026. I want to give a teaser to the discussion that we're having later today which is Zcash. Uh and I will get your projection on alts in just a minute. So stay tuned for Arthur Hayes's anticipation or outlook for the Elkway market overall. But what happened to Zcash? It's something that people haven't really been following. It's kind of been stagnant for about 3 years now. And then and then something happened last month. Now it's up 10x since a month ago. So Zcash, I remember 2016 and I was deep in mesh in Zcash. It was the hottest project at crypto at the time. very focused on privacy. It was a big narrative and BitMX was the first uh trading platform of any type to launch a um pre-market Zcash futures contract. Um it really elevated our stature in the crypto markets. Um the price action around this thing and when it eventually listed in 20 uh 2016, I think it was December because of how the mining rewards worked. And I know your chart only goes back to 2021 cuz it's probably Binance or somebody. Yeah. If you go back or Coinbase or whatever, if you go back to the Genesis block in 2016, you'll see that the price spiked to something like $3,000 per Zcash and Paloniex or something like that and that was due to there wasn't a lot of supply on the market. So, if you want to talk about uh the low circulating supply games that you play that we play today in the the shitcoin market, Zcash was one of the the first really to go hard at this. And that's because there just wasn't enough coins because of how the mining worked. And so you had this big spike and then obviously the price collapse. There were some things that were not optimal about how they were conducting privacy, the trusted setup, the lack of any supply that was using these shielded addresses. So it was basically just another version of Bitcoin with, you know, this possibility of privacy. Fast forward to today and know obviously I wasn't the first one on this. You have people like Naval and others who've been involved in the ZCAS ecosystem uh a lot more intently than me. I'm kind of a, you know, a later stage kind of guy. I mean, I definitely made some X's on this one, but I wasn't the the start of this move. And what is the narrative that they're pushing? Okay. Well, if we have AI and if we have all this compute power, we're going to be able to deanonymize um Bitcoin transactions uh and even Monero transactions. Um Japanese authorities have been able to do that if you believe the um a particular news article. And what do we have in our stable of shitcoins that's going to be able to give us privacy if we have all this compute power that can essentially figure out who owns what bitcoin via meta data via anything that you're putting online um via onchain transactions. And of course the authorities will have access to all this information. And so if you care about privacy then it behooves you to have a certain percentage of your stack in a token uh like Zcash. And that's the big narrative. And also there's this whole narrative of Bitcoin's been taken over by Trafi. Trafi can't trade privacy coins. You know, I tried to buy some Zcash on on the first uh RIP and like six out of eight of my brokers couldn't support it because they just they are not allowed to trade privacy coins. And the fact that trifi is not allowed makes it even more appealing to the grassroots crypto enthusiasts who feel like this whole movement has sort of been co-opted by black rocks of the world and XYZ bank launching some sort of derivative product DATS all this sort of stuff and people feel a bit disillusioned that we're straying away from what we came here for. That's what Zcash represents and that's why it's up so meaningfully so quickly and I think it'll continue going forward. My price target is 10% of the value of Bitcoin is what I'm targeting for uh my Zcash stack. Does that mean I was going to sell it? No. Again, as Naval said, it's insurance against Bitcoin. If I believe in Bitcoin, and I do think there are some reasons why you want to have pseudonymous addresses to prove that things happen, especially if you want to have governments start using Bitcoin, I want to prove that they actually paid for things versus cash where they can, you know, hand the briefcase over to the terrorist and then claim they didn't do anything. Well, I think that we need um Zcash and that's why people are recognizing this and there's a grassroots move to support it and we've seen, you know, a ma a massive rise in the price and I think it's got further to go. The global financial system is rapidly moving on chain and today's sponsor Cool Wallet is a name worth watching. Cool Wallet builds next generation cold wallets designed for a world where real world assets, payments, and savings live on the blockchain. 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I mean, go go go pick pick your major exchange. You're most likely not going to be able to to buy Zcash. Um, the United States stands out as one place where uh Zcash is allowed for trading. And I think that's part of the appeal. If it works, if I can't get it, I want more of it. And what aren't we supposed to be all about onchain the centralized exchanges? Now we have the ability using near intents and some other um public blockchains to essentially buy and sell Zcash and other assets completely anonymously. That is the goal of this whole movement. The fact that you can't get it on the centralized exchange blessed by the government makes me want it even more. All right. Well, uh I want to come back to what uh your fund Maelstrom likes and uh kind of give an overview of the projects that you're interested in uh in just a minute. So stay tuned for that. So going back to the article I briefly shared, a lot of people are concerned about the future of altcoins. Now this particular article highlighted what happened the last couple weeks. The crypto market's recent sharp selloff wiped out nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions in a matter of hours. Uh now this having leverage positions not in crypto is not new, but people have already been concerned about how altcoins were lagging Bitcoin for quite some time. Bitcoin dominance rising as you know. This people say is the last nail in the coffin. I've even heard remarks from my personal friends saying, "Hey, altcoin is dead. It's going to be dead permanently. It's not coming back." What do you think? Um, all specific types of altcoins are dead. I think we had some amazing price discovery in that 1010 crash. Essentially, you had a, you know, a large swath of the alt universe, which was just a market maker circle jerk. They pretend to provide liquidity. We pretend that it's worth whatever fully valuation. when the market maker leaves, there's no organic demand for this these pieces of [ __ ] and they're worth 90% less that we see on the screen. So great, we know what most of this ecosystem is worth. Zero and people should treat it that way. Now today, just recently, Uniswap did propose a put a proposal forward to um turn on a fee swatch and uni's up 30%. And in a matter of minutes on that announcement, now what does that prove? If we have protocols and we do have these that have real clients, unis swap has real clients that pay real money. People spend, you know, things other than unis swap and unis swap to pay for fees. And finally, we're going to get some of that money back as token holders. Now, that's great. That's why unis swap is pumping. That's why etheri is doing well. That's why Athena is doing well. That's why Pendle is doing well. These are projects with clients. These are projects with revenue. These are projects that profit goes back to the token holders. That is the altcoin season that we're going to see I think in 2026. Now, whatever other piece of [ __ ] that you own that has no clients, a bunch of hype, Binance, Launchpad, paid a bunch of Kos to shill it, market maker was there, then they're not and it's worth 90% and you got liquidated. Sorry, that's a dog [ __ ] piece of [ __ ] coin. Something's only a piece of crap in retrospect though, Arthur says a lot of people. Well, nobody nobody I mean, some people buy in knowing it's garbage and they're just speculating, but some people don't. How do you discern between something that's, you know, of sound properties and something that's just garbage? Again, this is all my opinion. Every everyone's investment philosophy is different, right? I'm coming from a a stance of capital abundance. So, I'm more I'm more concerned about capital preservation than appreciation. Like Zcash, I was late, right? I didn't buy Zcash at $20 before what, $30 before the recent massive move. I bought it in the hundreds, right? I heard I I heard about a late but I don't want to be early and you know be down 100%. So that's just how I appro approach things. So if I am going to be late and I want to be able to play a significant amount of capital and feel safe about it you know safe in relative terms of crypto then I want to see some profitability. I want to go on token terminal and look up okay who's making money uh who is putting that money back to the token holder. It's a very few projects that are doing that. Now is this a project that's going to go 100x in the next 2 weeks? No. So, a lot of people like, "No, that's not what I want. I am on a very low salary. I've got a little bit of savings. This is what I believe is my only way to escape the inflation trap that's been poed upon me by every single government around the world. YOLO this [ __ ] I don't want to go long something that's going to go up 100x in the next 2 weeks." Well, then you're going to get [ __ ] that goes down 90% because the market maker went away. So, that is that's the game people are playing. It's a very rational game. I'm not, you know, trying to throw shade on them. I understand why people view this altcoin speculative game as a way out of a shitty situation that governments around the world have put themselves in. Put put the people in. But again, that's, you know, that comes to the game. If you want to get 100x, you got to be able to suffer bagels, right? And that leads me to my next point about how you are picking uh things that are, you know, not going to go down 90%. So you uh this is this is from CoinDex. fund. Maelstrom is seeking 25 $250 million rather uh private equity fund to acquire crypto firms. So before I before I summarize this piece for us, why don't you tell us what what you're trying to do right now? So there are a subset of very integral firms. You probably haven't heard of them before. Maybe you have, but they're in the background. They're not the you know the Binances, the Coinbases, the Krakens of the world. They generate high margins. you know, 50 to 75% IBIDA margins, good revenue, you know, $25 to $100 million revenue companies, founder, and you know, they have no tokens, which is great for this equity play. And so our thesis is that there's a lot of capital out there that wants to play in this particular niche. They've gotten burned in the liquid VC. They've gotten burned in early stage VC because they've just underperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum. So, we're saying, "Hey, let's get back to basics. We're going to target companies that make cash. There's no token. We have a stable of really credible operators who can come into one of these companies. We can give the founders a nice exit. They can go off into the sunset, enjoy their lives, and we can come in and polish these companies up and we can get a multiple expansion. We can sell them onto a larger PE fund or we can do some sort of public markets situation. And so that's why we launched this particular fund to service this very specific niche. Are you screening for how they generating cash flow, which sectors within cryptos or what use cases and applications they're targeting? We're mostly concerned with um infrastructure, not specifically not not exchanges. So uh data players, API connectivity, stuff like that, stuff that's a little bit less sexy. And again, no token because we want a clean cap table to affect this this strategy that we're doing. Okay. And uh what uh what's the timeline for for for this fund? When are you planning to deploy this capital? Um I think we'll be finished fundraising in Q1 of next year and then we'll be patient. Uh we have a very long list of potential acquireies and we're just going to go and block and tackle and get it done. Well, do do you think now is the time just market wise to be acquiring uh companies uh within the cryptosphere? Is it a little bit too expensive right now or you are you waiting for some things are too expensive but there's a lot of idiosyncratic deals you know an illness a legal issue right and a founder has to sell right and if we're there ready with capital and the the knowhow to step in and reorganize these companies we're ready to go when let's go back to going back to the QT argument um and narrative and bring it back to altcoins what's going to happen you talked about what's going to happen to Bitcoin what's going to happen to the altcoin base when there's more liquidity from the Fed. Do we see Bitcoin dominance rise or is this finally going to be altcoin season come spring 2026? So, I mean, Bitcoin dominance is really a function of what how what's ETH going to do? Uh I'm in the Tom Lee camp. I think ETH is, you know, going to continue this this rally. You might like the narrative, but he's trying to put this narrative out there that Ethereum is the public blockchain for Tradfi that wants to get on chain. I know that there are lots of banks looking at doing stable coin projects, um, other DeFi things within their businesses, and now they need to choose a public blockchain. I think that's going to be Ethereum. And Ethereum is going to rip. You know, I've got a $10 to $20,000 price target for the end of the cycle that will take Bitcoin dominance down. And then the DeFi projects that are profitable and are handing out revenue to token holders, you know, like a Uniswap, those are going to see a resurgence. What what's your the what's your thesis on Ethereum again? it. I think that it's going to be the the narrative will be it's the layer one blockchain for tradi as in you know you want to do stable coins on chain you're going to use use Ethereum you want to do some sort of lending operation or capital markets thing now that you believe in DeFi you're allowed to do it by our board you know whatever your solution is you're going to use a public blockchain it's going to be on Ethereum it's not well aren't there faster cheaper blockchains already though are there well there's Ethereum is the most secure right so if you think about, you know, proof of stack. It's what, 300 something billion. It's the the most secure in terms of value that is staked. I want to get your reaction to this piece of news. Uh Trump announced uh earlier on Sunday through True Social that he's interested in the idea of a $2,000 dividend payment or at least $2,000 would be paid to most Americans from US tariff revenues. Uh the president called critics of tariffs fools and said that US was taking in trillions of dollars. Well, last time we had stimulus money from the pandemic, uh the the the alcoin market blew up. Crypto market blew up. I wonder. Okay, so let let's assume he goes ahead with this. We're going to get new stemmies. Now, there's two ways to look at it. Return of 2021 or people are finding other things to bet on now. People have moved on. Have you looked at a bit of I think that I think you should use view this tariff thing as a signal, not the actual event. Right. So, what is he signaling here? He's signaling that team red Republicans are in the business of giving out free [ __ ] Now, this isn't specifically free [ __ ] because if they've taxed consumers on the one hand to pay the to pay the tariff and then they give it back to them, it's kind of a net wash. At the end of the day, I'm sure there's some distribution issues, but this isn't as a game changer as if he said, "We are going to issue $500 billion or more of treasuries and hand it out to the public." like that would be another level of bullishness for all types of risky assets. This I think is signaling that team red Republicans are in the game of getting out free [ __ ] Uh and this is a very easy thing to say because he could paint it to his conservative folks as oh no it's budget neutral because we've already collected the tariff revenue. But again it's in the same theme of hey there are these Democrats like Mumani and others out there saying we're going to give you free [ __ ] Well, Republicans are in the game of giving free [ __ ] too, and this is how we're going to do it. And here's a signal of that we're serious about this. I think we're going to see a lot different types of things coming out from them next year. But again, I just think it's creating this narrative that it's election time, time to give out the goodies. Here's an area where we can give you goodies, tariffs, versus I don't know, Mom Daddy said, "I'm going to give you a free bus pass or whatever it is." Right? So, again, it's all positioning and narrative. I don't really know if it'll actually get through, whether who knows if it's tariffs are even legal, right? the US Supreme Court's voting on whether they believe that Trump had the power to even levy these things. So again, I think it's more of a direction of travel. Understand that he's serious about giving out free [ __ ] How he does it, we'll find out. But don't doubt that him and Beth Bibbesson are going to print a [ __ ] ton of money to make sure that they have the greatest chance team Republicans have greatest chance of winning in the November 2026 elections. What do you personally want more if you were given the choice? free bus passes or free $2,000. I mean, let's let's let's let's be clear. It probably doesn't neither probably impact you. Yeah. Yeah. There you go. But what that's and that's the good that's the that's the best thing about Bitcoin, right? Because if you're trading stocks, you care, right? Because okay, do I buy some company downstream of whoever's getting the free money, right? That's why some of the rare rare earth companies have done well. Some of the solar companies have done well during the Biden administration, right? Cuz they were pumping green. So the solar got pumped. Now we're talking about rare earth. So the rare earth companies get pumped, right? If you're in the equity space, you need to understand where the money's coming from. Where is it going? Make sure you're positioned in the right type of companies. That's difficult. I take a different approach. Okay, I know that money is being created. I know that Bitcoin has been the best performing asset in a fiat debasement race since 2009. Therefore, I don't care where it goes. All I care is that it get it gets created. I don't have to pick a stock. I just pick one thing. Bitcoin and I'm going to outperform most stocks. All right. Being a stock picker is very, very difficult. I want to get you to respond to one more piece of news. This is the Trump administration announcing today that cryptobacked mortgages could be a thing soon. Uh in June, a directive issued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency ordered mortgage giants Fanny May and Freddy Mack to develop proposals to consider crypto as an asset in single family home risk assessment. If we could start using bit our cryptos in our wallets as collateral uh what does that imply? What does that mean for the housing market? What does that mean for crypto? Well, I think I think that the team republican strategy with crypto is okay, we need to create every administration needs to create a bubble to paper over the one that the previous one that that burst, right? And so if you know what stands out, we have the AI and we have the crypto bubble. Uh, and so the Trump administration wants crypto to go up. If crypto goes up and then now you can essentially find um securitize that crypto, right? Whether it's go to JP Morgan with your ETF and get a margin loan to do other stuff, whatever it is. Now you can get a house and pump the housing market. So let's take this cohort. Let's pump them up with, you know, market friendly regulations and a lot of printed money. They're going to repay us by paying taxes and buying stuff. Now, if the housing market goes bananas because the crypto folks are buying it and everyone in America feels rich and they go out and take a home equity loan because now the 10-year yield is much lower and they compress the risk premium on mortgage back securities. Oh my god, they just unleash trillions of dollars in the economy. Everybody's happy because 65% of the American public owns a house. There you go. There's your election. So again, how do you how do you create a bubble that creates activity that pumps the assets that everybody owns so they feel good on uh in November of 2026? If you view all politics through that lens, then it becomes very very uh it's not that difficult to understand what's going to happen. You've done studies of this on your own and you've done some research. Either Republican or Democrat, like you're right, they're going to offer free stuff. They want to offer um better living standards in the form of free stuff. Now, that means more spending by either party. We're going to get more fiscal stimulus, more monetary stimulus. Like you said, what happens? How much more liquidity can we reasonably expect in the system by next year? And ultimately the impact of the markets. What can we expect? I don't know what the number is. I think it'll be in the trillions. It really depends on how how what's what's the control mechanisms the Trump administration has over the various, you know, government bureaucracies. You know, there's housing markets. One, they could unleash trillions by unleashing Fatty and Freddy to go out there and issue more mortgages. You know, if they could control the Fed, they can do some sort of yield curve control, cap yields, and that reduces, you know, reduces mortgage rates. People going to lever up their home equity. There's so many things they can do. And, you know, I put some massive there's stable coins trillion. I put big numbers out there. All I care about is getting the direction of travel right and as long as you get the direction of travel right, you'll do well. Finally, I wonder I want to get your take on um betting markets before we go. uh as the co-founder of a large exchange BitMEX um you probably have a lot to say about uh platforms overall. Poly Market has been one of the companies uh that allows people to bet directly on events and they've been pretty much consistently if you look at their platform they've been pretty much consistently right well the people betting on Poly Markets and Ky and others have been pretty much consistently right when it comes to presidential elections mayor elections I mean basically Mandani's uh win was predicted by Betty markets all the way back in June and they have actually reported the win uh before everybody else uh when Mandani won uh earlier this week poly market called it that that's what they tweeted Do you think this is going to lead to some sort of persuasion of the markets? People look at the odds and say, "Well, you know, XYZ odds have higher chance of winning than the the other odds." So that that's actually going to influence how people trade, how people invest, how people vote. Uh, of course, but I think the bigger issue is, you know, and I can't speak for other political systems, at least for the United States, right? You have primaries, right? And there's lots of people who want to vive for the to get on the ticket of the team red Republicans or team blue Democrats. Now the party big ways have to decide who they're going to fund, who who are they going to support. Well, in the past they had, you know, incomplete in inaccurate polling data. Whoever had better polling data obviously was able to, you know, invest better in different candidates. Now you have poly market. You have the wisdom of the crowd as expressed anonymously with money on the line globally. And so, okay, well, here's a slate of five contenders for a particular nomination of a particular public office. I'm going to support the number one on poly market, you know, 3 months out from the election, whatever the the heristic is. This is going to um make for better choices of political parties as to who they support in particular primaries. It's going to get reflexive, right? As you said, I see that this person is doing well. I'm more likely to support them because humans want to be on the winning team. And so, I think that and the news organizations are going to now just basically be regurgitators for Poly Market. You know, you'll have some commentary that means [ __ ] nothing probably written by some AI or some person straight out of university and then you just have the poly market and that's all you need to know because we can we read the chart we know okay this is what the crowd thinks whether or not that actually is the result we just want to know at the current time what is the most number of humans believe about this particular event that's what poly market cali and we're investor in limitless that's what these prediction markets are going to do and they're going to do what you know social media did to news right what do we see now XYZ mainstream outlet is essentially a commentary around a tweet. The real action happens on on X on Instagram on WeChat and then we hear about it in the legacy media well after the fact. Well, the real signal is on the prediction markets and the Wall Street Journal is just going to write about it for anyone who doesn't have a cell phone to pick it up and look at it. So, it's just going to further erode the nec necessity for traditional media outlets. All right, Arthur, we want to follow you. We want to keep up to date on what you're doing and what Maelstrom's doing and uh maybe even uh learn about your thought process. Where do we do that? So on X you can find me at Cryptohaze. On Substack I publish my free crypto traders digest uh under the moniker of CryptoHaze as well. Okay, we'll put the links down below. Thank you very much Arthur. Appreciate you coming back to your show. Take care. Thank you. I'll speak again soon and thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and follow Arthur. Links down below.